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The German high-pressure natural gas transport network consists of thousands of interconnected elements spread over more than 120,000 km of pipelines built during the last 100 years. During the last decade, we have spent many person-years to extract consistent data out of the available sources, both public and private. Based on two case studies, we present some of the challenges we encountered.
Preparing consistent, high-quality data is surprisingly hard, and the effort necessary can hardly be overestimated. Thus, it is particularly important to decide which strategy regarding data curation to adopt. Which precision of the data is necessary? When is it more efficient to work with data that is just sufficiently correct on average?
In the case studies we describe our experiences and the strategies we adopted to deal with the obstacles and to minimize future effort.
Finally, we would like to emphasize that well-compiled data sets, publicly available for research purposes, provide the grounds for building innovative algorithmic solutions to the challenges of the future.
In recent years, European gas transport has been affected by major disruptive events like political issues such as, most recently, the Russian war on Ukraine. To incorporate the impacts of such events into decision-making during the energy transition, more complex models for gas network analysis are required. However, the limited availability of consistent data presents a significant obstacle in this endeavor. We use a mathematical-modeling-based scenario generator to deal with this obstacle. The scenario generator consists of capacitated network flow models representing the gas network at different aggregation levels. In this study, we present the coarse-to-fine approach utilized in this scenario generator.
The decarbonization of the European energy system demands a rapid and comprehensive transformation while securing energy supplies at all times. Still, natural gas plays a crucial role in this process. Recent unexpected events forced drastic changes in gas routes throughout Europe. Therefore, operational-level analysis of the gas transport networks and technical capacities to cope with these transitions using unconventional scenarios has become essential.
Unfortunately, data limitations often hinder such analyses. To overcome this challenge, we propose a mathematical model-based scenario generator that enables operational analysis of the European gas network using open data. Our approach focuses on the consistent analysis of specific partitions of the gas transport network, whose network topology data is readily available. We generate reproducible and consistent node-based gas in/out-flow scenarios for these defined network partitions to enable feasibility analysis and data quality assessment.
Our proposed method is demonstrated through several applications that address the feasibility analysis and data quality assessment of the German gas transport network. By using open data and a mathematical modeling approach, our method allows for a more comprehensive understanding of the gas transport network's behavior and assists in decision-making during the transition to decarbonization.
Modeling functional time series and mixed-type predictors with partially functional autoregressions*
(2021)
In many business and economics studies, researchers have sought to measure the dynamic dependence of curves with high-dimensional mixed-type predictors. We propose a partially functional autoregressive model (pFAR) where the serial dependence of curves is controlled by coefficient operators that are defined on a two-dimensional surface, and the individual and group effects of mixed-type predictors are estimated with a two-layer regularization. We develop an efficient estimation with the proven asymptotic properties of consistency and sparsity. We show how to choose the sieve and tuning parameters in regularization based on a forward-looking criterion. In addition to the asymptotic properties, numerical validation suggests that the dependence structure is accurately detected. The implementation of the pFAR within a real-world analysis of dependence in German daily natural gas flow curves, with seven lagged curves and 85 scalar predictors, produces superior forecast accuracy and an insightful understanding of the dynamics of natural gas supply and demand for the municipal, industry, and border nodes, respectively.
Cut selection is a subroutine used in all modern mixed-integer linear programming solvers with the goal of selecting a subset of generated cuts that induce optimal solver performance. These solvers have millions of parameter combinations, and so are excellent candidates for parameter tuning. Cut selection scoring rules are usually weighted sums of different measurements, where the weights are parameters. We present a parametric family of mixed-integer linear programs together with infinitely many family-wide valid cuts. Some of these cuts can induce integer optimal solutions directly after being applied, while others fail to do so even if an infinite amount are applied. We show for a specific cut selection rule, that any finite grid search of the parameter space will always miss all parameter values, which select integer optimal inducing cuts in an infinite amount of our problems. We propose a variation on the design of existing graph convolutional neural networks, adapting them to learn cut selection rule parameters. We present a reinforcement learning framework for selecting cuts, and train our design using said framework over MIPLIB 2017. Our framework and design show that adaptive cut selection does substantially improve performance over a diverse set of instances, but that finding a single function describing such a rule is difficult. Code for reproducing all experiments is available at https://github.com/Opt-Mucca/Adaptive-Cutsel-MILP.
Cutting plane selection is a subroutine used in all modern mixed-integer linear programming solvers with the goal of selecting a subset of generated cuts that induce optimal solver performance. These solvers have millions of parameter combinations, and so are excellent candidates for parameter tuning. Cut selection scoring rules are usually weighted sums of different measurements, where the weights are parameters. We present a parametric family of mixed-integer linear programs together with infinitely many family-wide valid cuts. Some of these cuts can induce integer optimal solutions directly after being applied, while others fail to do so even if an infinite amount are applied. We show for a specific cut selection rule, that any finite grid search of the parameter space will always miss all parameter values, which select integer optimal inducing cuts in an infinite amount of our problems. We propose a variation on the design of existing graph convolutional neural networks, adapting them to learn cut selection rule parameters. We present a reinforcement learning framework for selecting cuts, and train our design using said framework over MIPLIB 2017 and a neural network verification data set. Our framework and design show that adaptive cut selection does substantially improve performance over a diverse set of instances, but that finding a single function describing such a rule is difficult. Code for reproducing all experiments is available at https://github.com/Opt-Mucca/Adaptive-Cutsel-MILP.
A standard tool for modelling real-world optimisation problems is mixed-integer programming (MIP). However, for many of these problems there is either incomplete information describing variable relations, or the relations between variables are highly complex. To overcome both these hurdles, machine learning (ML) models are often used and embedded in the MIP as surrogate models to represent these relations. Due to the large amount of available ML frameworks, formulating ML models into MIPs is highly non-trivial. In this paper we propose a tool for the automatic MIP formulation of trained ML models, allowing easy integration of ML constraints into MIPs. In addition, we introduce a library of MIP instances with embedded ML constraints. The project is available at https://github.com/Opt-Mucca/PySCIPOpt-ML.
A standard tool for modelling real-world optimisation problems is mixed-integer programming (MIP). However, for many of these problems there is either incomplete information describing variable relations, or the relations between variables are highly complex. To overcome both these hurdles, machine learning (ML) models are often used and embedded in the MIP as surrogate models to represent these relations. Due to the large amount of available ML frameworks, formulating ML models into MIPs is highly non-trivial. In this paper we propose a tool for the automatic MIP formulation of trained ML models, allowing easy integration of ML constraints into MIPs. In addition, we introduce a library of MIP instances with embedded ML constraints. The project is available at https://github.com/Opt-Mucca/PySCIPOpt-ML.
Cutting planes are a crucial component of state-of-the-art mixed-integer programming solvers, with the choice of which subset of cuts to add being vital for solver performance. We propose new distance-based measures to qualify the value of a cut by quantifying the extent to which it separates relevant parts of the relaxed feasible set. For this purpose, we use the analytic centers of the relaxation polytope or of its optimal face, as well as alternative optimal solutions of the linear programming relaxation. We assess the impact of the choice of distance measure on root node performance and throughout the whole branch-and-bound tree, comparing our measures against those prevalent in the literature. Finally, by a multi-output regression, we predict the relative performance of each measure, using static features readily available before the separation process. Our results indicate that analytic center-based methods help to significantly reduce the number of branch-and-bound nodes needed to explore the search space and that our multiregression approach can further improve on any individual method.
Cutting planes and branching are two of the most important algorithms for solving mixed-integer linear programs. For both algorithms, disjunctions play an important role, being used both as branching candidates and as the foundation for some cutting planes. We relate branching decisions and cutting planes to each other through the underlying disjunctions that they are based on, with a focus on Gomory mixed-integer cuts and their corresponding split disjunctions. We show that selecting branching decisions based on quality measures of Gomory mixed-integer cuts leads to relatively small branch-and-bound trees, and that the result improves when using cuts that more accurately represent the branching decisions. Finally, we show how the history of previously computed Gomory mixed-integer cuts can be used to improve the performance of the state-of-the-art hybrid branching rule of SCIP. Our results show a 4% decrease in solve time, and an 8% decrease in number of nodes over affected instances of MIPLIB 2017.