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Given a time-dependent stochastic process with trajectories x(t) in a space $\Omega$, there may be sets such that the corresponding trajectories only very rarely cross the boundaries of these sets. We can analyze such a process in terms of metastability or coherence. Metastable sets M are defined in space $M\subset\Omega$, coherent sets $M(t)\subset\Omega$ are defined in space and time. Hence, if we extend the space by the time-variable t, coherent sets are metastable sets in $\Omega\times[0,\infty]$. This relation can be exploited, because there already exist spectral algorithms for the identification of metastable sets. In this article we show that these well-established spectral algorithms (like PCCA+) also identify coherent sets of non-autonomous dynamical systems. For the identification of coherent sets, one has to compute a discretization (a matrix T) of the transfer operator of the process using a space-timediscretization scheme. The article gives an overview about different time-discretization schemes and shows their applicability in two different fields of application.
Molecular dynamics (MD) simulations face challenging problems since
the timescales of interest often are much longer than what is possible
to simulate and even if sufficiently long simulation are possible the complex
nature of the resulting simulation data makes interpretation difficult.
Markov State Models (MSMs) help to overcome these problems by making
experimentally relevant timescales accessible via coarse grained representations
that also allows for convenient interpretation. However, standard
set-based MSMs exhibit some caveats limiting their approximation quality
and statistical significance. One of the main caveats results from the fact
that typical MD trajectories repeatedly re-cross the boundary between
the sets used to build the MSM which causes statistical bias in estimating
the transition probabilities between these sets. In this article, we present
a set-free approach to MSM building utilizing smooth overlapping ansatz
functions instead of sets and an adaptive refinement approach. This kind
of meshless discretization helps to overcome the recrossing problem and
yields an adaptive refinement procedure that allows to improve the quality
of the model while exploring state space and inserting new ansatz
functions into the MSM.