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Tom Streubel has observed that for functions in abs-normal form, generalized Taylor expansions of arbitrary order $\bar d-1$ can be generated by algorithmic piecewise differentiation. Abs-normal form means that the real or vector valued function is defined by an evaluation procedure that involves the absolute value function $|...|$ apart from arithmetic operations and $\bar d$ times continuously differentiable univariate intrinsic functions. The additive terms in Streubel's expansion are abs-polynomial, i.e. involve neither divisions nor intrinsics. When and where no absolute values occur, Moore's recurrences can be used to propagate univariate Taylor polynomials through the evaluation procedure with a computational effort of $\mathcal O({\bar d}^2)$, provided all univariate intrinsics are defined as solutions of linear ODEs. This regularity assumption holds for all standard intrinsics, but for irregular elementaries one has to resort to Faa di Bruno's formula, which has exponential complexity in $\bar d$. As already conjectured we show that the Moore recurrences can be adapted for regular intrinsics to the abs-normal case. Finally, we observe that where the intrinsics are real analytic the expansions can be extended to infinite series that converge absolutely on spherical domains.
As the natural gas market is moving towards short-term planning, accurate and robust short-term forecasts of the demand and supply of natural gas is of fundamental importance for a stable energy supply, a natural gas control schedule, and transport operation on a daily basis. We propose a hybrid forecast model, Functional AutoRegressive and Convolutional Neural Network model, based on state-of-the-art statistical modeling and artificial neural networks. We conduct short-term forecasting of the hourly natural gas flows of 92 distribution nodes in the German high-pressure gas pipeline network, showing that the proposed model provides nice and stable accuracy for different types of nodes. It outperforms all the alternative models, with an improved relative accuracy up to twofold for plant nodes and up to fourfold for municipal nodes. For the border nodes with rather flat gas flows, it has an accuracy that is comparable to the best performing alternative model.
We consider the problem of verifying linear properties of neural networks. Despite their success in many classification and prediction tasks, neural networks may return unexpected results for certain inputs. This is highly problematic with respect to the application of neural networks for safety-critical tasks, e.g. in autonomous driving. We provide an overview of algorithmic approaches that aim to provide formal guarantees on the behavior of neural networks. Moreover, we present new theoretical results with respect to the approximation of ReLU neural networks. On the other hand, we implement a solver for verification of ReLU neural networks which combines mixed integer programming (MIP) with specialized branching and approximation techniques. To evaluate its performance, we conduct an extensive computational study. For that we use test instances based on the ACAS Xu System and the MNIST handwritten digit data set. Our solver is publicly available and able to solve the verification problem for instances which do not have independent bounds for each input neuron.