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This work proposes stochastic partial differential equations (SPDEs) as a practical tool to replicate clustering effects of more detailed particle-based dynamics. Inspired by membrane mediated receptor dynamics on cell surfaces, we formulate a stochastic particle-based model for diffusion and pairwise interaction of particles, leading to intriguing clustering phenomena. Employing numerical simulation and cluster detection methods, we explore the approximation of the particle-based clustering dynamics through mean-field approaches. We find that SPDEs successfully reproduce spatiotemporal clustering dynamics, not only in the initial cluster formation period, but also on longer time scales where the successive merging of clusters cannot be tracked by deterministic mean-field models. The computational efficiency of the SPDE approach allows us to generate extensive statistical data for parameter estimation in a simpler model that uses a Markov jump process to capture the temporal evolution of the cluster number.
This paper is concerned with collective variables, or reaction coordinates, that map a discrete-in-time Markov process X_n in R^d to a (much) smaller dimension k≪d. We define the effective dynamics under a given collective variable map ξ as the best Markovian representation of X_n under ξ. The novelty of the paper is that it gives strict criteria for selecting optimal collective variables via the properties of the effective dynamics. In particular, we show that the transition density of the effective dynamics of the optimal collective variable solves a relative entropy minimization problem from certain family of densities to the transition density of X_n. We also show that many transfer operator-based data-driven numerical approaches essentially learn quantities of the effective dynamics. Furthermore, we obtain various error estimates for the effective dynamics in approximating dominant timescales / eigenvalues and transition rates of the original process X_n and how optimal collective variables minimize these errors. Our results contribute to the development of theoretical tools for the understanding of complex dynamical systems, e.g. molecular kinetics, on large timescales. These results shed light on the relations among existing data-driven numerical approaches for identifying good collective variables, and they also motivate the development of new methods.
Collaborative comparisons and combinations of epidemic models are used as policy-relevant evidence during epidemic outbreaks. In the process of collecting multiple model projections, such collaborations may gain or lose relevant information. Typically, modellers contribute a probabilistic summary at each time-step. We compared this to directly collecting simulated trajectories. We aimed to explore information on key epidemic quantities; ensemble uncertainty; and performance against data, investigating potential to continuously gain information from a single cross-sectional collection of model results. Methods We compared July 2022 projections from the European COVID-19 Scenario Modelling Hub. Five modelling teams projected incidence in Belgium, the Netherlands, and Spain. We compared projections by incidence, peaks, and cumulative totals. We created a probabilistic ensemble drawn from all trajectories, and compared to ensembles from a median across each model’s quantiles, or a linear opinion pool. We measured the predictive accuracy of individual trajectories against observations, using this in a weighted ensemble. We repeated this sequentially against increasing weeks of observed data. We evaluated these ensembles to reflect performance with varying observed data. Results. By collecting modelled trajectories, we showed policy-relevant epidemic characteristics. Trajectories contained a right-skewed distribution well represented by an ensemble of trajectories or a linear opinion pool, but not models’ quantile intervals. Ensembles weighted by performance typically retained the range of plausible incidence over time, and in some cases narrowed this by excluding some epidemic shapes. Conclusions. We observed several information gains from collecting modelled trajectories rather than quantile distributions, including potential for continuously updated information from a single model collection. The value of information gains and losses may vary with each collaborative effort’s aims, depending on the needs of projection users. Understanding the differing information potential of methods to collect model projections can support the accuracy, sustainability, and communication of collaborative infectious disease modelling efforts. Data availability All code and data available on Github: https://github.com/covid19-forecast-hub-europe/aggregation-info-loss
The recent COVID-19 pandemic has thrown the importance of accurately forecasting contagion dynamics and learning infection parameters into sharp focus. At the same time, effective policy-making requires knowledge of the uncertainty on such predictions, in order, for instance, to be able to ready hospitals and intensive care units for a worst-case scenario without needlessly wasting resources. In this work, we apply a novel and powerful computational method to the problem of learning probability densities on contagion parameters and providing uncertainty quantification for pandemic projections. Using a neural network, we calibrate an ODE model to data of the spread of COVID-19 in Berlin in 2020, achieving both a significantly more accurate calibration and prediction than Markov-Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)-based sampling schemes. The uncertainties on our predictions provide meaningful confidence intervals e.g. on infection figures and hospitalisation rates, while training and running the neural scheme takes minutes where MCMC takes hours. We show convergence of our method to the true posterior on a simplified SIR model of epidemics, and also demonstrate our method's learning capabilities on a reduced dataset, where a complex model is learned from a small number of compartments for which data is available.
We have investigated how Langevin dynamics is affected by the friction
coefficient using the novel algorithm ISOKANN, which combines the transfer
operator approach with modern machine learning techniques. ISOKANN describes
the dynamics in terms of an invariant subspace projection of the Koopman
operator defined in the entire state space, avoiding approximations due to
dimensionality reduction and discretization. Our results are consistent with
the Kramers turnover and show that in the low and moderate friction regimes,
metastable macro-states and transition rates are defined in phase space, not
only in position space.
High-dimensional metastable molecular dynamics (MD) can often be characterised by a few features of the system, that is, collective variables (CVs). Thanks to the rapid advance in the area of machine learning and deep learning, various deep learning-based CV identification techniques have been developed in recent years, allowing accurate modelling and efficient simulation of complex molecular systems. In this paper, we look at two different categories of deep learning-based approaches for finding CVs, either by computing leading eigenfunctions of transfer operator associated to the underlying dynamics, or by learning an autoencoder via minimisation of reconstruction error. We present a concise overview of the mathematics behind these two approaches and conduct a comparative numerical study of these two approaches on illustrative examples.
Agent-based models (ABMs) provide an intuitive and powerful framework for studying social dynamics by modeling the interactions of individuals from the perspective of each individual. In addition to simulating and forecasting the dynamics of ABMs, the demand to solve optimization problems to support, for example, decision-making processes naturally arises. Most ABMs, however, are non-deterministic, high-dimensional dynamical systems, so objectives defined in terms of their behavior are computationally expensive. In particular, if the number of agents is large, evaluating the objective functions often becomes prohibitively time-consuming. We consider data-driven reduced models based on the Koopman generator to enable the efficient solution of multi-objective optimization problems involving ABMs. In a first step, we show how to obtain data-driven reduced models of non-deterministic dynamical systems (such as ABMs) that depend on potentially nonlinear control inputs. We then use them in the second step as surrogate models to solve multi-objective optimal control problems. We first illustrate our approach using the example of a voter model, where we compute optimal controls to steer the agents to a predetermined majority, and then using the example of an epidemic ABM, where we compute optimal containment strategies in a prototypical situation. We demonstrate that the surrogate models effectively approximate the Pareto-optimal points of the ABM dynamics by comparing the surrogate-based results with test points, where the objectives are evaluated using the ABM. Our results show that when objectives are defined by the dynamic behavior of ABMs, data-driven surrogate models support or even enable the solution of multi-objective optimization problems.
This article addresses reaction networks in which spatial and stochastic effects are of crucial importance. For such systems, particle-based models allow us to describe all microscopic details with high accuracy. However, they suffer from computational inefficiency if particle numbers and density get too large. Alternative coarse-grained-resolution models reduce computational effort tremendously, e.g., by replacing the particle distribution by a continuous concentration field governed by reaction-diffusion PDEs. We demonstrate how models on the different resolution levels can be combined into hybrid models that seamlessly combine the best of both worlds, describing molecular species with large copy numbers by macroscopic equations with spatial resolution while keeping the stochastic-spatial particle-based resolution level for the species with low copy numbers. To this end, we introduce a simple particle-based model for the binding dynamics of ions and vesicles at the heart of the neurotransmission process. Within this framework, we derive a novel hybrid model and present results from numerical experiments which demonstrate that the hybrid model allows for an accurate approximation of the full particle-based model in realistic scenarios.
In optical nano metrology numerical models are used widely for parameter reconstructions. Using the Bayesian target vector optimization method we fit a finite element numerical model to a Grazing Incidence x-ray fluorescence data set in order to obtain the geometrical parameters of a nano structured line grating. Gaussian process, stochastic machine learning surrogate models, were trained during the reconstruction and afterwards sampled with a Markov chain Monte Carlo sampler to determine the distribution of the reconstructed model parameters. The numerical discretization parameters of the used finite element model impact the numerical discretization error of the forward model. We investigated the impact of the polynomial order of the finite element ansatz functions on the reconstructed parameters as well as on the model parameter distributions. We showed that such a convergence study allows to determine numerical parameters which allows for efficient and accurate reconstruction results.
Modern Deep Neural Networks are getting wider and deeper in their architecture design. However, with an increasing number of parameters the decision mechanisms becomes more opaque. Therefore, there is a need for understanding the structures arising in the hidden layers of deep neural networks.
In this work, we present a new mathematical framework for describing the canonical polyhedral decomposition in the input space, and in addition, we introduce the notions of collapsing- and preserving patches, pertinent to understanding the forward map and the activation space they induce.
The activation space can be seen as the output of a layer and, in the particular case of ReLU activations, we prove that this output has the structure of a polyhedral complex.
One of the main challenges in molecular dynamics is overcoming the ‘timescale barrier’: in many realistic molecular systems, biologically important rare transitions occur on timescales that are not accessible to direct numerical simulation, even on the largest or specifically dedicated supercomputers. This article discusses how to circumvent the timescale barrier by a collection of transfer operator-based techniques that have emerged from dynamical systems theory, numerical mathematics and machine learning over the last two decades. We will focus on how transfer operators can be used to approximate the dynamical behaviour on long timescales, review the introduction of this approach into molecular dynamics, and outline the respective theory, as well as the algorithmic development, from the early numerics-based methods, via variational reformulations, to modern data-based techniques utilizing and improving concepts from machine learning. Furthermore, its relation to rare event simulation techniques will be explained, revealing a broad equivalence of variational principles for long-time quantities in molecular dynamics. The article will mainly take a mathematical perspective and will leave the application to real-world molecular systems to the more than 1000 research articles already written on this subject.
Novel multi-objective affinity approach allows to identify pH-specific μ-opioid receptor agonists
(2023)
Opioids are essential pharmaceuticals due to their analgesic properties, however, lethal side effects, addiction, and opioid tolerance are extremely challenging. The development of novel molecules targeting the μ-opioid receptor (MOR) in inflamed, but not in healthy tissue, could significantly reduce these unwanted effects. Finding such novel molecules can be achieved by maximizing the binding affinity to the MOR at acidic pH while minimizing it at neutral pH, thus combining two conflicting objectives. Here, this multi-objective optimal affinity approach is presented, together with a virtual drug discovery pipeline for its practical implementation. When applied to finding pH-specific drug candidates, it combines protonation state-dependent structure and ligand preparation with high-throughput virtual screening. We employ this pipeline to characterize a set of MOR agonists identifying a morphine-like opioid derivative with higher predicted binding affinities to the MOR at low pH compared to neutral pH. Our results also confirm existing experimental evidence that NFEPP, a previously described fentanyl derivative with reduced side effects, and recently reported β-fluorofentanyls and -morphines show an increased specificity for the MOR at acidic pH when compared to fentanyl and morphine. We further applied our approach to screen a >50K ligand library identifying novel molecules with pH-specific predicted binding affinities to the MOR. The presented differential docking pipeline can be applied to perform multi-objective affinity optimization to identify safer and more specific drug candidates at large scale.
Digital communication has made the public discourse considerably more complex, and new actors and strategies have emerged as a result of this seismic shift. Aside from the often-studied interactions among individuals during opinion formation, which have been facilitated on a large scale by social media platforms, the changing role of traditional media and the emerging role of "influencers" are not well understood, and the implications of their engagement strategies arising from the incentive structure of the attention economy even less so. Here we propose a novel opinion dynamics model that accounts for these different roles, namely that media and influencers change their own positions on slower time scales than individuals, while influencers dynamically gain and lose followers. Numerical simulations show the importance of their relative influence in creating qualitatively different opinion formation dynamics: with influencers, fragmented but short-lived clusters emerge, which are then counteracted by more stable media positions. Mean-field approximations by partial differential equations reproduce this dynamic. Based on the mean-field model, we study how strategies of influencers to gain more followers can influence the overall opinion distribution. We show that moving towards extreme positions can be a beneficial strategy for influencers to gain followers. Finally, we demonstrate that optimal control strategies allow other influencers or media to counteract such attempts and prevent further fragmentation of the opinion landscape. Our modelling framework contributes to better understanding the different roles and strategies in the increasingly complex information ecosystem and their impact on public opinion formation.
At chemical synapses, an arriving electric signal induces the fusion of vesicles with the presynaptic membrane, thereby releasing neurotransmitters into the synaptic cleft. After a fusion event, both the release site and the vesicle undergo a recovery process before becoming available for reuse again. Of central interest is the question which of the two restoration steps acts as the limiting factor during neurotrans-mission under high-frequency sustained stimulation. In order to investigate this question, we introduce a novel non-linear reaction network which involves explicit recovery steps for both the vesicles and the release sites, and includes the induced time-dependent output current. The associated reaction dynamics are formulated by means of ordinary differential equations (ODEs), as well as via the associated stochastic jump process. While the stochastic jump model describes a single release site, the average over many release sites is close to the ODE solution and shares its periodic structure. The reason for this can be traced back to the insight that recovery dynamics of vesicles and release sites are statistically almost independent. A sensitivity analysis on the recovery rates based on the ODE formulation reveals that neither the vesicle nor the release site recovery step can be identified as the essential rate-limiting step but that the rate- limiting feature changes over the course of stimulation. Under sustained stimulation the dynamics given by the ODEs exhibit transient dynamics leading from an initial depression of the postsynaptic response to an asymptotic periodic orbit, while the individual trajectories of the stochastic jump model lack the oscillatory behavior an asymptotic periodicity of the ODE-solution.
Sampling rare events in metastable dynamical systems is often a computationally expensive task and one needs to resort to enhanced sampling methods such as importance sampling. Since we can formulate the problem of finding optimal importance sampling controls as a stochastic optimization problem, this then brings additional numerical challenges and the convergence of corresponding algorithms might as well suffer from metastabilty. In this article we address this issue by combining systematic control approaches with the heuristic adaptive metadynamics method. Crucially, we approximate the importance sampling control by a neural network, which makes the algorithm in principle feasible for high dimensional applications. We can numerically demonstrate in relevant metastable problems that our algorithm is more effective than previous attempts and that only the combination of the two approaches leads to a satisfying convergence and therefore to an efficient sampling in certain metastable settings.
One of the main challenges in molecular dynamics is overcoming the “timescale barrier”, a phrase used to describe that in many realistic molecular systems, biologically important rare transitions occur on timescales that are not accessible to direct numerical simulation, not even on the largest or specifically dedicated supercomputers. This article discusses how to circumvent the timescale barrier by a collection of transfer operator-based techniques that have emerged from dynamical systems theory, numerical mathematics, and machine learning over the last two decades. We will focus on how transfer operators can be used to approximate the dynamical behavior on long timescales, review the introduction of this approach into molecular dynamics, and outline the respective theory as well as the algorithmic development from the early numerics-based methods, via variational reformulations, to modern data-based techniques utilizing and
improving concepts from machine learning. Furthermore, its relation to rare event simulation techniques will be explained, revealing a broad equivalence of variational principles for long-time quantities in MD. The article will mainly take a mathematical perspective and will leave the application to real-world molecular systems to the more than 1000 research articles already written on this subject.
Understanding the Romanization Spreading on Historical Interregional Networks in Northern Tunisia
(2022)
Spreading processes are important drivers of change in social systems. To understand the mechanisms of spreading it is fundamental to have information about the underlying contact network and the dynamical parameters of the process.
However, in many real-wold examples, this information is not known and needs to be inferred from data. State-of-the-art spreading inference methods have mostly been applied to modern social systems, as they rely on availability of very detailed data. In this paper we study the inference challenges for historical spreading processes, for which only very fragmented information is available. To cope with this problem, we extend existing network models by formulating a model on a mesoscale with temporal spreading rate. Furthermore, we formulate the respective parameter inference problem for the extended model. We apply our approach to the romanization process of Northern Tunisia, a scarce dataset, and study properties of the inferred time-evolving interregional networks. As a result, we show that (1) optimal solutions consist of very different network structures and spreading rate functions; and that (2) these diverse solutions produce very similar spreading patterns. Finally, we discuss how inferred dominant interregional connections are related to available archaeological traces. Historical networks resulting from our approach can help understanding complex processes of cultural change in ancient times.