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Statistical analysis and modeling for detecting regime changes in gas nomination time series

Please always quote using this URN: urn:nbn:de:0297-zib-82988
  • As a result of the legislation for gas markets introduced by the European Union in 2005, separate independent companies have to conduct the transport and trading of natural gas. The current gas market of Germany, which has a market value of more than 54 billion USD, consists of Transmission System Operators (TSO), network users, and traders. Traders can nominate a certain amount of gas anytime and anywhere in the network. Such unrestricted access for the traders, on the other hand, increase the uncertainty in the gas supply management. Some customers’ behaviors may cause abrupt structural changes in gas flow time series. In particular, it is a challenging task for the TSO operators to predict gas nominations 6 to 10 hours ahead. In our study, we aim to investigate the regime changes in the time series of nominations to predict the 6 to 10 hours ahead of gas nominations.

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Author:Milena PetkovicORCiD, Nazgul ZakiyevaORCiD, Janina ZittelORCiD
Document Type:ZIB-Report
Tag:Time series
Date of first Publication:2021/07/23
Series (Serial Number):ZIB-Report (21-22)
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