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Modeling and forecasting gas network flows with multivariate time series and mathematical programming approach

Please always quote using this URN: urn:nbn:de:0297-zib-82966
  • With annual consumption of approx. 95 billion cubic me-ters and similar amounts of gas just transshipped through Germany toother EU states, Germany’s gas transport system plays a vital role inEuropean energy supply. The complex, more than 40,000 km long high-pressure transmission network is controlled by several transmission sys-tem operators (TSOs) whose main task is to provide security of supplyin a cost-efficient way. Given the slow speed of gas flows through the gastransmission network pipelines, it has been an essential task for the gasnetwork operators to enhance the forecast tools to build an accurate andeffective gas flow prediction model for the whole network. By incorpo-rating the recent progress in mathematical programming and time seriesmodeling, we aim to model natural gas network and predict gas in- andout-flows at multiple supply and demand nodes for different forecastinghorizons. Our model is able to describe the dynamics in the network bydetecting the key nodes, which may help to build an optimal manage-ment strategy for transmission system operators.

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Author:Nazgul ZakiyevaORCiD, Milena PetkovicORCiD
Document Type:ZIB-Report
Date of first Publication:2021/07/23
Series (Serial Number):ZIB-Report (21-23)
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