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A Hybrid Approach for High Precision Prediction of Gas Flows

Please always quote using this URN: urn:nbn:de:0297-zib-73525
  • About 20% of the German energy demand is supplied by natural gas. Ad- ditionally, for about twice the amount Germany serves as a transit country. Thereby, the German network represents a central hub in the European natural gas transport network. The transport infrastructure is operated by so-called transmissions system operators or TSOs. The number one priority of the TSOs is to ensure security of supply. However, the TSOs have no knowledge of the intentions and planned actions of the shippers (traders). Open Grid Europe (OGE), one of Germany’s largest TSO, operates a high- pressure transport network of about 12.000 km length. Since flexibility and security of supply is of utmost importance to the German Energy Transition (“Energiewende”) especially with the introduction of peak-load gas power stations, being able to predict in- and out-flow of the network is of great importance. In this paper we introduce a new hybrid forecast method applied to gas flows at the boundary nodes of a transport network. The new method employs optimized feature minimization and selection. We use a combination of an FAR, LSTM DNN and mathematical programming to achieve robust high quality forecasts on real world data for different types of network nodes. Keywords: Gas Forecast, Time series, Hybrid Method, FAR, LSTM, Mathematical Optimisation

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Author:Milena PetkovicORCiD, Ying Chen, Inken Gamrath, Uwe Gotzes, Natalia Selini Hadjidimitriou, Janina ZittelORCiD, Xiaofei XuORCiD, Thorsten KochORCiD
Document Type:ZIB-Report
Date of first Publication:2019/06/13
Series (Serial Number):ZIB-Report (19-26)
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