## Estimating exit rates in rare event dynamical systems via extrapolation

Please always quote using this URN: urn:nbn:de:0297-zib-56622
• In this article we present a new idea for approximating exit rates for diffusion processes living in a craggy landscape. We are especially interested in the exit rates of a process living in a metastable regions. Due to the fact that Monte Carlo simulations perform quite poor and are very computational expensive in this setting we create several similar situations with a smoothed potential. For this we introduce a new parameter $\lambda \in [0,1]$ ($\lambda = 1$ very smoothed potential, $\lambda=0$ original potential) into the potential which controls the influence the smoothing. We then sample the exit rate for different parameters $\lambda$ the exit rate from a given region. Due to the fact that $\lambda$ is connected to the exit rate we can use this dependency to approximate the real exit rate. The method can be seen as something between hyperdynamics and temperature accelerated MC.