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A System Dynamic Enhancement for the Scenario Technique

  • The Scenario Technique is a strategic planning method that aims to describe and analyze potential developments of a considered system in the future. Its application consists of several steps, from an initial problem analysis over an influence analysis to projections of key factors and a definition of the scenarios to a final interpretation of the results. The technique itself combines qualitative and quantitative methods and is an enhancement of the standard Scenario Technique. We use the numerical values gathered during the influence analysis, and embed them in a System Dynamics framework. This yields a mathematically rigorous way to achieve predictions of the system‘s future behavior from an initial impulse and the feedback structure of the factors. The outcome of our new method is a further way of projecting the present into the future, which enables the user of the Scenario Technique to obtain a validation of the results achieved by the standard method.

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Author:Achim Brose, Armin Fügenschuh, Pia Gausemeier, Ingmar Vierhaus, Günther Seliger
Document Type:In Proceedings
Parent Title (English):Proc. 11th Global Conference on Sustainable Manufacturing
First Page:561
Last Page:566
Publisher:Universitätsverlag der TU Berlin
Place of publication:Berlin
Year of first publication:2013
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