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Parameter Identification for a Tuberculosis Model in Cameroon

Please always quote using this URN: urn:nbn:de:0297-zib-43087
  • A deterministic model of tuberculosis in sub-Saharan Africa in general and Cameroon in particular including lack of access to the treatment and weak diagnose capacity is designed and analyzed with respect to its transmission dynamics. The model includes both frequency- and density-dependent transmissions. It is shown that the model is mathematically well-posed and epidemiologically reasonable. Solutions are non-negative and bounded whenever the initial values are non-negative. A sensitivity analysis of model parameters is performed and most sensitive parameters of the model are identified using a state-of-the-art Gauss-Newton Method. In particular, parameters representing the proportion of individuals having access to medical facilities have a large impact on the dynamics of the disease. It has been shown that an increase of these parameter values over the time can significantly reduce the disease burden in the population within the next 15 years.

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Author:Dany Pascal Moualeu-Ngangue, Susanna RöblitzORCiD, Rainald Ehrig, Peter Deuflhard
Document Type:ZIB-Report
Tag:Tuberculosis, parameter identification, sensitivity analysis, Gauss-Newton method, Nonlinear dynamical systems.
Date of first Publication:2013/11/14
Series (Serial Number):ZIB-Report (13-72)
Published in:Appeared in: PLOS ONE Published: April 13, 2015
Licence (German):License LogoCreative Commons - Namensnennung
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