Demand Uncertainty in Energy Systems: Scenario Catalogs vs. Integrated Robust Optimization
accepted for publication
- Designing efficient energy systems is indispensable for shaping a more sustainable society. This involves making infrastructure investment decisions that must be valid for a long-term time horizon. While energy system optimization models constitute a powerful technique to support planning decisions, they need to cope with inherent uncertainty. For example, predicting future demand on a scale of decades is not only an intricate challenge in itself, but small fluctuations in such a forecast might also largely impact the layout of a complex energy system. In this paper, we compare two methodologies of capturing demand uncertainty for linear-programming based energy system optimization models. On one hand, we generate and analyze catalogs of varying demand scenarios, where each individual scenario is considered independently, so that the optimization produces scenario-specific investment pathways. On the other hand, we make use of robust linear programming to meet the demand of all scenarios at once. Since including a multitude of scenarios increases the size and complexity of the optimization model, we will show how to use warm-starting approaches to accelerate the computation process, by exploiting the similar structure of the linear program across different demand inputs. This allows to integrate a meaningful number of demand scenarios with fully-fledged energy system models. We demonstrate the practical use of our methods in a case study of the Berlin-Brandenburg area in Germany, a region that contains both a metropolitan area and its rural surroundings. As a backbone, we use the open-source framework oemof to create a sector-coupled optimization model for planning an energy system with up to 100% reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. This model features a fine-grained temporal resolution of one hour for the full year 2050. We consider uncertainty in demand for electricity, hydrogen, natural gas, central, and decentral heat. Based on our computations, we analyze the trade-offs in terms of quality and computation time for scenario catalogs and the robust optimization approach. We further demonstrate that our procedure provides a valuable strategy for decision makers to gain insight on the robustness and sensitivity of solutions regarding demand variability.
| Author: | Niels LindnerORCiD, Lukas Mehl, Karolina Bartoszuk, Sarah Berendes, Janina ZittelORCiD |
|---|---|
| Document Type: | In Proceedings |
| Parent Title (English): | Proceedings of the 38th International Conference on Efficiency, Cost, Optimization, Simulation and Environmental Impact of Energy Systems |
| Year of first publication: | 2025 |
| Preprint: | urn:nbn:de:0297-zib-102404 |

