TY - JOUR A1 - Becker, Fabian A1 - Djurdjevac Conrad, Natasa A1 - Eser, Raphael A. A1 - Helfmann, Luzie A1 - Schütt, Brigitta A1 - Schütte, Christof A1 - Zonker, Johannes T1 - The Furnace and the Goat—A spatio-temporal model of the fuelwood requirement for iron metallurgy on Elba Island, 4th century BCE to 2nd century CE JF - PLOS ONE Y1 - 2020 UR - https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0241133 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0241133 VL - 15 SP - 1 EP - 37 PB - Public Library of Science ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Wulkow, Niklas A1 - Koltai, Péter A1 - Schütte, Christof T1 - Memory-Based Reduced Modelling and Data-Based Estimation of Opinion Spreading JF - Journal of Nonlinear Science N2 - We investigate opinion dynamics based on an agent-based model and are interested in predicting the evolution of the percentages of the entire agent population that share an opinion. Since these opinion percentages can be seen as an aggregated observation of the full system state, the individual opinions of each agent, we view this in the framework of the Mori–Zwanzig projection formalism. More specifically, we show how to estimate a nonlinear autoregressive model (NAR) with memory from data given by a time series of opinion percentages, and discuss its prediction capacities for various specific topologies of the agent interaction network. We demonstrate that the inclusion of memory terms significantly improves the prediction quality on examples with different network topologies. Y1 - 2021 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s00332-020-09673-2 VL - 31 ER - TY - THES A1 - Wulkow, Niklas T1 - Modelling the Spread of Innovations by a Markov Process in a Bayesian Framework Y1 - 2017 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:0297-zib-66869 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Djurdjevac Conrad, Natasa A1 - Fuerstenau, Daniel A1 - Grabundzija, Ana A1 - Helfmann, Luzie A1 - Park, Martin A1 - Schier, Wolfram A1 - Schütt, Brigitta A1 - Schütte, Christof A1 - Weber, Marcus A1 - Wulkow, Niklas A1 - Zonker, Johannes T1 - Mathematical modeling of the spreading of innovations in the ancient world JF - eTopoi. Journal for Ancient Studies Y1 - 2018 U6 - https://doi.org/10.17171/4-7-1 SN - ISSN 2192-2608 VL - 7 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Helfmann, Luzie A1 - Djurdjevac Conrad, Natasa A1 - Djurdjevac, Ana A1 - Winkelmann, Stefanie A1 - Schütte, Christof T1 - From interacting agents to density-based modeling with stochastic PDEs N2 - Many real-world processes can naturally be modeled as systems of interacting agents. However, the long-term simulation of such agent-based models is often intractable when the system becomes too large. In this paper, starting from a stochastic spatio-temporal agent-based model (ABM), we present a reduced model in terms of stochastic PDEs that describes the evolution of agent number densities for large populations. We discuss the algorithmic details of both approaches; regarding the SPDE model, we apply Finite Element discretization in space which not only ensures efficient simulation but also serves as a regularization of the SPDE. Illustrative examples for the spreading of an innovation among agents are given and used for comparing ABM and SPDE models. T3 - ZIB-Report - 19-21 Y1 - 2019 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:0297-zib-73456 SN - 1438-0064 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Helfmann, Luzie A1 - Djurdjevac Conrad, Natasa A1 - Djurdjevac, Ana A1 - Winkelmann, Stefanie A1 - Schütte, Christof T1 - From interacting agents to density-based modeling with stochastic PDEs JF - Communications in Applied Mathematics and Computational Science N2 - Many real-world processes can naturally be modeled as systems of interacting agents. However, the long-term simulation of such agent-based models is often intractable when the system becomes too large. In this paper, starting from a stochastic spatio-temporal agent-based model (ABM), we present a reduced model in terms of stochastic PDEs that describes the evolution of agent number densities for large populations. We discuss the algorithmic details of both approaches; regarding the SPDE model, we apply Finite Element discretization in space which not only ensures efficient simulation but also serves as a regularization of the SPDE. Illustrative examples for the spreading of an innovation among agents are given and used for comparing ABM and SPDE models. Y1 - 2021 U6 - https://doi.org/10.2140/camcos.2021.16.1 VL - 16 IS - 1 SP - 1 EP - 32 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Zonker, Johannes A1 - Padilla-Iglesias, Cecilia A1 - Djurdjevac Conrad, Natasa T1 - Supplementary code and data for Royal Society Open Science Manuscript rsos.230495 N2 - In this repository are all files necessary to run the agent-based model of the paper "Insights into drivers of mobility and cultural dynamics of African hunter–gatherers over the past 120 000 years", Royal Society Open Science, 10(11), 2023. Y1 - 2023 U6 - https://doi.org/10.12752/9254 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Zonker, Johannes A1 - Padilla-Iglesias, Cecilia A1 - Djurdjevac Conrad, Natasa T1 - Insights into drivers of mobility and cultural dynamics of African hunter-gatherers over the past 120 000 years JF - Royal Society Open Science N2 - Humans have a unique capacity to innovate, transmit and rely on complex, cumulative culture for survival. While an important body of work has attempted to explore the role of changes in the size and interconnectedness of populations in determining the persistence, diversity and complexity of material culture, results have achieved limited success in explaining the emergence and spatial distribution of cumulative culture over our evolutionary trajectory. Here, we develop a spatio-temporally explicit agent-based model to explore the role of environmentally driven changes in the population dynamics of hunter–gatherer communities in allowing the development, transmission and accumulation of complex culture. By modelling separately demography- and mobility-driven changes in interaction networks, we can assess the extent to which cultural change is driven by different types of population dynamics. We create and validate our model using empirical data from Central Africa spanning 120 000 years. We find that populations would have been able to maintain diverse and elaborate cultural repertoires despite abrupt environmental changes and demographic collapses by preventing isolation through mobility. However, we also reveal that the function of cultural features was also an essential determinant of the effects of environmental or demographic changes on their dynamics. Our work can therefore offer important insights into the role of a foraging lifestyle on the evolution of cumulative culture. Y1 - 2023 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1098/rsos.230495 VL - 10 IS - 11 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Wulkow, Niklas A1 - Telgmann, Regina A1 - Hungenberg, Klaus-Dieter A1 - Schütte, Christof A1 - Wulkow, Michael T1 - Deterministic and Stochastic Parameter Estimation for Polymer Reaction Kinetics I: Theory and Simple Examples JF - Macromolecular Theory and Simulations N2 - Two different approaches to parameter estimation (PE) in the context of polymerization are introduced, refined, combined, and applied. The first is classical PE where one is interested in finding parameters which minimize the distance between the output of a chemical model and experimental data. The second is Bayesian PE allowing for quantifying parameter uncertainty caused by experimental measurement error and model imperfection. Based on detailed descriptions of motivation, theoretical background, and methodological aspects for both approaches, their relation are outlined. The main aim of this article is to show how the two approaches complement each other and can be used together to generate strong information gain regarding the model and its parameters. Both approaches and their interplay in application to polymerization reaction systems are illustrated. This is the first part in a two-article series on parameter estimation for polymer reaction kinetics with a focus on theory and methodology while in the second part a more complex example will be considered. Y1 - 2021 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1002/mats.202100017 VL - 30 ER -