TY - JOUR A1 - Sherratt, Katharine A1 - Srivastava, Ajitesh A1 - Ainslie, Kylie A1 - Singh, David E. A1 - Cublier, Aymar A1 - Marinescu, Maria Cristina A1 - Carretero, Jesus A1 - Garcia, Alberto Cascajo A1 - Franco, Nicolas A1 - Willem, Lander A1 - Abrams, Steven A1 - Faes, Christel A1 - Beutels, Philippe A1 - Hens, Niel A1 - Müller, Sebastian A1 - Charlton, Billy A1 - Ewert, Ricardo A1 - Paltra, Sydney A1 - Rakow, Christian A1 - Rehmann, Jakob A1 - Conrad, Tim A1 - Schütte, Christof A1 - Nagel, Kai A1 - Abbott, Sam A1 - Grah, Rok A1 - Niehus, Rene A1 - Prasse, Bastian A1 - Sandmann, Frank A1 - Funk, Sebastian T1 - Characterising information gains and losses when collecting multiple epidemic model outputs JF - Epidemics N2 - Collaborative comparisons and combinations of epidemic models are used as policy-relevant evidence during epidemic outbreaks. In the process of collecting multiple model projections, such collaborations may gain or lose relevant information. Typically, modellers contribute a probabilistic summary at each time-step. We compared this to directly collecting simulated trajectories. We aimed to explore information on key epidemic quantities; ensemble uncertainty; and performance against data, investigating potential to continuously gain information from a single cross-sectional collection of model results. Methods We compared July 2022 projections from the European COVID-19 Scenario Modelling Hub. Five modelling teams projected incidence in Belgium, the Netherlands, and Spain. We compared projections by incidence, peaks, and cumulative totals. We created a probabilistic ensemble drawn from all trajectories, and compared to ensembles from a median across each model’s quantiles, or a linear opinion pool. We measured the predictive accuracy of individual trajectories against observations, using this in a weighted ensemble. We repeated this sequentially against increasing weeks of observed data. We evaluated these ensembles to reflect performance with varying observed data. Results. By collecting modelled trajectories, we showed policy-relevant epidemic characteristics. Trajectories contained a right-skewed distribution well represented by an ensemble of trajectories or a linear opinion pool, but not models’ quantile intervals. Ensembles weighted by performance typically retained the range of plausible incidence over time, and in some cases narrowed this by excluding some epidemic shapes. Conclusions. We observed several information gains from collecting modelled trajectories rather than quantile distributions, including potential for continuously updated information from a single model collection. The value of information gains and losses may vary with each collaborative effort’s aims, depending on the needs of projection users. Understanding the differing information potential of methods to collect model projections can support the accuracy, sustainability, and communication of collaborative infectious disease modelling efforts. Data availability All code and data available on Github: https://github.com/covid19-forecast-hub-europe/aggregation-info-loss KW - Virology KW - Infectious Diseases KW - Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health KW - Microbiology KW - Parasitology KW - Epidemiology Y1 - 2024 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epidem.2024.100765 SN - 1755-4365 VL - 47 PB - Elsevier BV ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Amiranashvili, Tamaz A1 - Lüdke, David A1 - Li, Hongwei Bran A1 - Zachow, Stefan A1 - Menze, Bjoern T1 - Learning continuous shape priors from sparse data with neural implicit functions JF - Medical Image Analysis N2 - Statistical shape models are an essential tool for various tasks in medical image analysis, including shape generation, reconstruction and classification. Shape models are learned from a population of example shapes, which are typically obtained through segmentation of volumetric medical images. In clinical practice, highly anisotropic volumetric scans with large slice distances are prevalent, e.g., to reduce radiation exposure in CT or image acquisition time in MR imaging. For existing shape modeling approaches, the resolution of the emerging model is limited to the resolution of the training shapes. Therefore, any missing information between slices prohibits existing methods from learning a high-resolution shape prior. We propose a novel shape modeling approach that can be trained on sparse, binary segmentation masks with large slice distances. This is achieved through employing continuous shape representations based on neural implicit functions. After training, our model can reconstruct shapes from various sparse inputs at high target resolutions beyond the resolution of individual training examples. We successfully reconstruct high-resolution shapes from as few as three orthogonal slices. Furthermore, our shape model allows us to embed various sparse segmentation masks into a common, low-dimensional latent space — independent of the acquisition direction, resolution, spacing, and field of view. We show that the emerging latent representation discriminates between healthy and pathological shapes, even when provided with sparse segmentation masks. Lastly, we qualitatively demonstrate that the emerging latent space is smooth and captures characteristic modes of shape variation. We evaluate our shape model on two anatomical structures: the lumbar vertebra and the distal femur, both from publicly available datasets. Y1 - 2024 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.media.2024.103099 VL - 94 SP - 103099 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Obermeier, Patrick E A1 - Heim, Albert A1 - Biere, Barbara A1 - Hage, Elias A1 - Alchikh, Maren A1 - Conrad, Tim A1 - Schweiger, Brunhilde A1 - Rath, Barbara A T1 - Linking digital surveillance and in-depth virology to study clinical patterns of viral respiratory infections in vulnerable patient populations JF - iScience N2 - To improve the identification and management of viral respiratory infections, we established a clinical and virologic surveillance program for pediatric patients fulfilling pre-defined case criteria of influenza-like illness and viral respiratory infections. The program resulted in a cohort comprising 6,073 patients (56% male, median age 1.6 years, range 0–18.8 years), where every patient was assessed with a validated disease severity score at the point-of-care using the ViVI ScoreApp. We used machine learning and agnostic feature selection to identify characteristic clinical patterns. We tested all patients for human adenoviruses, 571 (9%) were positive. Adenovirus infections were particularly common and mild in children ≥1 month of age but rare and potentially severe in neonates: with lower airway involvement, disseminated disease, and a 50% mortality rate (n = 2/4). In one fatal case, we discovered a novel virus … Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.isci.2022.104276 VL - 25 IS - 5 PB - Cell Press ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Hajarolasvadi, Noushin A1 - Sunkara, Vikram A1 - Khavnekar, Sagar A1 - Beck, Florian A1 - Brandt, Robert A1 - Baum, Daniel T1 - Volumetric macromolecule identification in cryo-electron tomograms using capsule networks JF - BMC Bioinformatics N2 - Background: Despite recent advances in cellular cryo-electron tomography (CET), developing automated tools for macromolecule identification in submolecular resolution remains challenging due to the lack of annotated data and high structural complexities. To date, the extent of the deep learning methods constructed for this problem is limited to conventional Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs). Identifying macromolecules of different types and sizes is a tedious and time-consuming task. In this paper, we employ a capsule-based architecture to automate the task of macro- molecule identification, that we refer to as 3D-UCaps. In particular, the architecture is composed of three components: feature extractor, capsule encoder, and CNN decoder. The feature extractor converts voxel intensities of input sub-tomograms to activities of local features. The encoder is a 3D Capsule Network (CapsNet) that takes local features to generate a low-dimensional representation of the input. Then, a 3D CNN decoder reconstructs the sub-tomograms from the given representation by upsampling. Results: We performed binary and multi-class localization and identification tasks on synthetic and experimental data. We observed that the 3D-UNet and the 3D-UCaps had an F1−score mostly above 60% and 70%, respectively, on the test data. In both network architectures, we observed degradation of at least 40% in the F1-score when identifying very small particles (PDB entry 3GL1) compared to a large particle (PDB entry 4D8Q). In the multi-class identification task of experimental data, 3D-UCaps had an F1-score of 91% on the test data in contrast to 64% of the 3D-UNet. The better F1-score of 3D-UCaps compared to 3D-UNet is obtained by a higher precision score. We speculate this to be due to the capsule network employed in the encoder. To study the effect of the CapsNet-based encoder architecture further, we performed an ablation study and perceived that the F1-score is boosted as network depth is increased which is in contrast to the previously reported results for the 3D-UNet. To present a reproducible work, source code, trained models, data as well as visualization results are made publicly available. Conclusion: Quantitative and qualitative results show that 3D-UCaps successfully perform various downstream tasks including identification and localization of macro- molecules and can at least compete with CNN architectures for this task. Given that the capsule layers extract both the existence probability and the orientation of the molecules, this architecture has the potential to lead to representations of the data that are better interpretable than those of 3D-UNet. Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1186/s12859-022-04901-w VL - 23 IS - 360 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Lelièvre, Tony A1 - Zhang, Wei T1 - Pathwise estimates for effective dynamics: the case of nonlinear vectorial reaction coordinates JF - Multiscale Modeling and Simulation N2 - Effective dynamics using conditional expectation was proposed in [F. Legoll and T. Lelièvre, Nonlinearity, 2010] to approximate the essential dynamics of high-dimensional diffusion processes along a given reaction coordinate. The approximation error of the effective dynamics when it is used to approximate the behavior of the original dynamics has been considered in recent years. As a continuation of the previous work [F. Legoll, T. Lelièvre, and S. Olla, Stoch. Process. Appl, 2017], in this paper we obtain pathwise estimates for effective dynamics when the reaction coordinate function is either nonlinear or vector-valued. Y1 - 2018 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1137/18M1186034 IS - 17 SP - 1019 EP - 1051 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Hartmann, Carsten A1 - Schütte, Christof A1 - Zhang, Wei T1 - Jarzynski's equality, fluctuation theorems, and variance reduction: Mathematical analysis and numerical algorithms JF - Journal of Statistical Physics N2 - In this paper, we study Jarzynski's equality and fluctuation theorems for diffusion processes. While some of the results considered in the current work are known in the (mainly physics) literature, we review and generalize these nonequilibrium theorems using mathematical arguments, therefore enabling further investigations in the mathematical community. On the numerical side, variance reduction approaches such as importance sampling method are studied in order to compute free energy differences based on Jarzynski's equality. Y1 - 2018 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s10955-019-02286-4 VL - 175 IS - 6 SP - 1214 EP - 1261 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Zhang, Wei A1 - Klus, Stefan A1 - Conrad, Tim A1 - Schütte, Christof T1 - Learning chemical reaction networks from trajectory data JF - SIAM Journal on Applied Dynamical Systems (SIADS) N2 - We develop a data-driven method to learn chemical reaction networks from trajectory data. Modeling the reaction system as a continuous-time Markov chain and assuming the system is fully observed,our method learns the propensity functions of the system with predetermined basis functions by maximizing the likelihood function of the trajectory data under l^1 sparse regularization. We demonstrate our method with numerical examples using synthetic data and carry out an asymptotic analysis of the proposed learning procedure in the infinite-data limit. Y1 - 2019 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1137/19M1265880 VL - 18 IS - 4 SP - 2000 EP - 2046 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Zhang, Wei T1 - Ergodic SDEs on submanifolds and related numerical sampling schemes JF - ESAIM: Mathematical Modelling and Numerical Analysis N2 - In many applications, it is often necessary to sample the mean value of certain quantity with respect to a probability measure $\mu$ on the level set of a smooth function ξ:R^d→R^k, 1≤k