TY - JOUR A1 - Sherratt, Katharine A1 - Srivastava, Ajitesh A1 - Ainslie, Kylie A1 - Singh, David E. A1 - Cublier, Aymar A1 - Marinescu, Maria Cristina A1 - Carretero, Jesus A1 - Garcia, Alberto Cascajo A1 - Franco, Nicolas A1 - Willem, Lander A1 - Abrams, Steven A1 - Faes, Christel A1 - Beutels, Philippe A1 - Hens, Niel A1 - Müller, Sebastian A1 - Charlton, Billy A1 - Ewert, Ricardo A1 - Paltra, Sydney A1 - Rakow, Christian A1 - Rehmann, Jakob A1 - Conrad, Tim A1 - Schütte, Christof A1 - Nagel, Kai A1 - Abbott, Sam A1 - Grah, Rok A1 - Niehus, Rene A1 - Prasse, Bastian A1 - Sandmann, Frank A1 - Funk, Sebastian T1 - Characterising information gains and losses when collecting multiple epidemic model outputs JF - Epidemics N2 - Collaborative comparisons and combinations of epidemic models are used as policy-relevant evidence during epidemic outbreaks. In the process of collecting multiple model projections, such collaborations may gain or lose relevant information. Typically, modellers contribute a probabilistic summary at each time-step. We compared this to directly collecting simulated trajectories. We aimed to explore information on key epidemic quantities; ensemble uncertainty; and performance against data, investigating potential to continuously gain information from a single cross-sectional collection of model results. Methods We compared July 2022 projections from the European COVID-19 Scenario Modelling Hub. Five modelling teams projected incidence in Belgium, the Netherlands, and Spain. We compared projections by incidence, peaks, and cumulative totals. We created a probabilistic ensemble drawn from all trajectories, and compared to ensembles from a median across each model’s quantiles, or a linear opinion pool. We measured the predictive accuracy of individual trajectories against observations, using this in a weighted ensemble. We repeated this sequentially against increasing weeks of observed data. We evaluated these ensembles to reflect performance with varying observed data. Results. By collecting modelled trajectories, we showed policy-relevant epidemic characteristics. Trajectories contained a right-skewed distribution well represented by an ensemble of trajectories or a linear opinion pool, but not models’ quantile intervals. Ensembles weighted by performance typically retained the range of plausible incidence over time, and in some cases narrowed this by excluding some epidemic shapes. Conclusions. We observed several information gains from collecting modelled trajectories rather than quantile distributions, including potential for continuously updated information from a single model collection. The value of information gains and losses may vary with each collaborative effort’s aims, depending on the needs of projection users. Understanding the differing information potential of methods to collect model projections can support the accuracy, sustainability, and communication of collaborative infectious disease modelling efforts. Data availability All code and data available on Github: https://github.com/covid19-forecast-hub-europe/aggregation-info-loss KW - Virology KW - Infectious Diseases KW - Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health KW - Microbiology KW - Parasitology KW - Epidemiology Y1 - 2024 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epidem.2024.100765 SN - 1755-4365 VL - 47 PB - Elsevier BV ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Gaskin, Thomas A1 - Conrad, Tim A1 - Pavliotis, Grigorios A. A1 - Schütte, Christof T1 - Neural parameter calibration and uncertainty quantification for epidemic forecasting JF - PLOS ONE N2 - The recent COVID-19 pandemic has thrown the importance of accurately forecasting contagion dynamics and learning infection parameters into sharp focus. At the same time, effective policy-making requires knowledge of the uncertainty on such predictions, in order, for instance, to be able to ready hospitals and intensive care units for a worst-case scenario without needlessly wasting resources. In this work, we apply a novel and powerful computational method to the problem of learning probability densities on contagion parameters and providing uncertainty quantification for pandemic projections. Using a neural network, we calibrate an ODE model to data of the spread of COVID-19 in Berlin in 2020, achieving both a significantly more accurate calibration and prediction than Markov-Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)-based sampling schemes. The uncertainties on our predictions provide meaningful confidence intervals e.g. on infection figures and hospitalisation rates, while training and running the neural scheme takes minutes where MCMC takes hours. We show convergence of our method to the true posterior on a simplified SIR model of epidemics, and also demonstrate our method's learning capabilities on a reduced dataset, where a complex model is learned from a small number of compartments for which data is available. Y1 - 2024 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0306704 VL - 19 IS - 10 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Kostré, Margarita A1 - Sunkara, Vikram A1 - Schütte, Christof A1 - Djurdjevac Conrad, Natasa T1 - Understanding the Romanization Spreading on Historical Interregional Networks in Northern Tunisia JF - Applied Network Science N2 - Spreading processes are important drivers of change in social systems. To understand the mechanisms of spreading it is fundamental to have information about the underlying contact network and the dynamical parameters of the process. However, in many real-wold examples, this information is not known and needs to be inferred from data. State-of-the-art spreading inference methods have mostly been applied to modern social systems, as they rely on availability of very detailed data. In this paper we study the inference challenges for historical spreading processes, for which only very fragmented information is available. To cope with this problem, we extend existing network models by formulating a model on a mesoscale with temporal spreading rate. Furthermore, we formulate the respective parameter inference problem for the extended model. We apply our approach to the romanization process of Northern Tunisia, a scarce dataset, and study properties of the inferred time-evolving interregional networks. As a result, we show that (1) optimal solutions consist of very different network structures and spreading rate functions; and that (2) these diverse solutions produce very similar spreading patterns. Finally, we discuss how inferred dominant interregional connections are related to available archaeological traces. Historical networks resulting from our approach can help understanding complex processes of cultural change in ancient times. KW - mesoscale spreading process KW - network inference KW - time-evolving network KW - romanization spreading KW - scarce data Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s41109-022-00492-w VL - 7 PB - Springer Nature ER - TY - GEN A1 - Kostré, Margarita A1 - Sunkara, Vikram A1 - Schütte, Christof A1 - Djurdjevac Conrad, Nataša T1 - Understanding the Romanization Spreading on Historical Interregional Networks in Northern Tunisia N2 - Spreading processes are important drivers of change in social systems. To understand the mechanisms of spreading it is fundamental to have information about the underlying contact network and the dynamical parameters of the process. However, in many real-wold examples, this information is not known and needs to be inferred from data. State-of-the-art spreading inference methods have mostly been applied to modern social systems, as they rely on availability of very detailed data. In this paper we study the inference challenges for historical spreading processes, for which only very fragmented information is available. To cope with this problem, we extend existing network models by formulating a model on a mesoscale with temporal spreading rate. Furthermore, we formulate the respective parameter inference problem for the extended model. We apply our approach to the romanization process of Northern Tunisia, a scarce dataset, and study properties of the inferred time-evolving interregional networks. As a result, we show that (1) optimal solutions consist of very different network structures and spreading rate functions; and that (2) these diverse solutions produce very similar spreading patterns. Finally, we discuss how inferred dominant interregional connections are related to available archaeological traces. Historical networks resulting from our approach can help understanding complex processes of cultural change in ancient times. T3 - ZIB-Report - 22-10 KW - mesoscale spreading process, network inference, time-evolving network, romanization spreading, scarce data Y1 - 2022 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:0297-zib-86764 SN - 1438-0064 ER - TY - BOOK ED - Deuflhard, Peter ED - Grötschel, Martin ED - Hömberg, Dietmar ED - Horst, Ulrich ED - Kramer, Jürg ED - Mehrmann, Volker ED - Polthier, Konrad ED - Schmidt, Frank ED - Schütte, Christof ED - Skutella, Martin ED - Sprekels, Jürgen T1 - MATHEON - Mathematics for Key Technologies Y1 - 2014 SN - 978-3-03719-137-8 U6 - https://doi.org/10.4171/137 VL - 1 PB - European Mathematical Society ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Carderera, Alejandro A1 - Pokutta, Sebastian A1 - Schütte, Christof A1 - Weiser, Martin T1 - An efficient first-order conditional gradient algorithm in data-driven sparse identification of nonlinear dynamics to solve sparse recovery problems under noise JF - Journal of Computational and Applied Mathematics N2 - Governing equations are essential to the study of nonlinear dynamics, often enabling the prediction of previously unseen behaviors as well as the inclusion into control strategies. The discovery of governing equations from data thus has the potential to transform data-rich fields where well-established dynamical models remain unknown. This work contributes to the recent trend in data-driven sparse identification of nonlinear dynamics of finding the best sparse fit to observational data in a large library of potential nonlinear models. We propose an efficient first-order Conditional Gradient algorithm for solving the underlying optimization problem. In comparison to the most prominent alternative framework, the new framework shows significantly improved performance on several essential issues like sparsity-induction, structure-preservation, noise robustness, and sample efficiency. We demonstrate these advantages on several dynamics from the field of synchronization, particle dynamics, and enzyme chemistry. Y1 - 2025 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cam.2025.116675 VL - 470 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Zhang, Wei A1 - Schütte, Christof T1 - Reliable approximation of long relaxation timescales in molecular dynamics N2 - Many interesting rare events in molecular systems like ligand association, protein folding or con- formational changes happen on timescales that often are not accessible by direct numerical simulation. Therefore rare event approximation approaches like interface sampling, Markov state model building or advanced reaction coordinate based free energy estimation have attracted huge attention recently. In this article we analyze the reliability of such approaches: How precise is an estimate of long relaxation timescales of molecular systems resulting from various forms of rare event approximation methods? Our results give a theoretical answer to this question by relating it with the transfer operator approach to molecular dynamics. By doing so they also allow for understanding deep connections between the different approaches. T3 - ZIB-Report - 17-19 Y1 - 2017 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:0297-zib-63718 SN - 1438-0064 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Hartmann, Carsten A1 - Schütte, Christof A1 - Zhang, Wei T1 - Jarzynski's equality, fluctuation theorems, and variance reduction: Mathematical analysis and numerical algorithms JF - Journal of Statistical Physics N2 - In this paper, we study Jarzynski's equality and fluctuation theorems for diffusion processes. While some of the results considered in the current work are known in the (mainly physics) literature, we review and generalize these nonequilibrium theorems using mathematical arguments, therefore enabling further investigations in the mathematical community. On the numerical side, variance reduction approaches such as importance sampling method are studied in order to compute free energy differences based on Jarzynski's equality. Y1 - 2018 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s10955-019-02286-4 VL - 175 IS - 6 SP - 1214 EP - 1261 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Zhang, Wei A1 - Li, Tiejun A1 - Schütte, Christof T1 - Solving eigenvalue PDEs of metastable diffusion processes using artificial neural networks JF - Journal of Computational Physics N2 - In this paper, we consider the eigenvalue PDE problem of the infinitesimal generators of metastable diffusion processes. We propose a numerical algorithm based on training artificial neural networks for solving the leading eigenvalues and eigenfunctions of such high-dimensional eigenvalue problem. The algorithm is useful in understanding the dynamical behaviors of metastable processes on large timescales. We demonstrate the capability of our algorithm on a high-dimensional model problem, and on the simple molecular system alanine dipeptide. Y1 - 2021 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcp.2022.111377 VL - 465 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Zhang, Wei A1 - Klus, Stefan A1 - Conrad, Tim A1 - Schütte, Christof T1 - Learning chemical reaction networks from trajectory data JF - SIAM Journal on Applied Dynamical Systems (SIADS) N2 - We develop a data-driven method to learn chemical reaction networks from trajectory data. Modeling the reaction system as a continuous-time Markov chain and assuming the system is fully observed,our method learns the propensity functions of the system with predetermined basis functions by maximizing the likelihood function of the trajectory data under l^1 sparse regularization. We demonstrate our method with numerical examples using synthetic data and carry out an asymptotic analysis of the proposed learning procedure in the infinite-data limit. Y1 - 2019 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1137/19M1265880 VL - 18 IS - 4 SP - 2000 EP - 2046 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Akhyar, Fatima-Zahrae A1 - Zhang, Wei A1 - Stoltz, Gabriel A1 - Schütte, Christof T1 - Generative modeling of conditional probability distributions on the level-sets of collective variables N2 - Given a probability distribution $\mu$ in $\mathbb{R}^d$ represented by data, we study in this paper the generative modeling of its conditional probability distributions on the level-sets of a collective variable $\xi: \mathbb{R}^d \rightarrow \mathbb{R}^k$, where $1 \le k