TY - GEN A1 - Winkelmann, Stefanie A1 - Schütte, Christof A1 - von Kleist, Max T1 - Markov Control Processes with Rare State Observation: Theory and Application to Treatment Scheduling in HIV-1 N2 - Markov Decision Processes (MDP) or Partially Observable MDPs (POMDP) are used for modelling situations in which the evolution of a process is partly random and partly controllable. These MDP theories allow for computing the optimal control policy for processes that can continuously or frequently be observed, even if only partially. However, they cannot be applied if state observation is very costly and therefore rare (in time). We present a novel MDP theory for rare, costly observations and derive the corresponding Bellman equation. In the new theory, state information can be derived for a particular cost after certain, rather long time intervals. The resulting information costs enter into the total cost and thus into the optimization criterion. This approach applies to many real world problems, particularly in the medical context, where the medical condition is examined rather rarely because examination costs are high. At the same time, the approach allows for efficient numerical realization. We demonstrate the usefulness of the novel theory by determining, from the national economic perspective, optimal therapeutic policies for the treatment of the human immunodefficiency virus (HIV) in resource-rich and resource-poor settings. Based on the developed theory and models, we discover that available drugs may not be utilized efficiently in resource-poor settings due to exorbitant diagnostic costs. T3 - ZIB-Report - 13-34 KW - information costs KW - hidden state KW - bellmann equation KW - optimal therapeutic policies KW - diagnostic frequency KW - resource-poor KW - resource-rich Y1 - 2013 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:0297-zib-41955 SN - 1438-0064 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Huisinga, Wilhelm A1 - Best, Christoph A1 - Cordes, Frank A1 - Roitzsch, Rainer A1 - Schütte, Christof T1 - Identification of Molecular Conformations via Statistical Analysis of Simulation Data JF - Comp. Chem. Y1 - 1999 VL - 20 SP - 1760 EP - 1774 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Gelß, Patrick A1 - Klus, Stefan A1 - Eisert, Jens A1 - Schütte, Christof T1 - Multidimensional Approximation of Nonlinear Dynamical Systems JF - Journal of Computational and Nonlinear Dynamics N2 - A key task in the field of modeling and analyzing nonlinear dynamical systems is the recovery of unknown governing equations from measurement data only. There is a wide range of application areas for this important instance of system identification, ranging from industrial engineering and acoustic signal processing to stock market models. In order to find appropriate representations of underlying dynamical systems, various data-driven methods have been proposed by different communities. However, if the given data sets are high-dimensional, then these methods typically suffer from the curse of dimensionality. To significantly reduce the computational costs and storage consumption, we propose the method multidimensional approximation of nonlinear dynamical systems (MANDy) which combines data-driven methods with tensor network decompositions. The efficiency of the introduced approach will be illustrated with the aid of several high-dimensional nonlinear dynamical systems. Y1 - 2019 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1115/1.4043148 VL - 14 IS - 6 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Koltai, Péter A1 - Schütte, Christof T1 - A multiscale perturbation expansion approach for Markov state modeling of non-stationary molecular dynamics JF - SIAM J. Multiscale Model. Simul. N2 - We investigate metastable dynamical systems subject to non-stationary forcing as they appear in molecular dynamics for systems driven by external fields. We show, that if the strength of the forcing is inversely proportional to the length of the slow metastable time scales of the unforced system, then the effective behavior of the forced system on slow time scales can be described by a low-dimensional reduced master equation. Our construction is explicit and uses the multiscale perturbation expansion method called two-timing, or method of multiple scales. The reduced master equation—a Markov state model—can be assembled by constructing two equilibrium Markov state models; one for the unforced system, and one for a slightly perturbed one. Y1 - 2018 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1137/17M1146403 VL - 16 IS - 4 SP - 1455 EP - 1485 PB - SIAM ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Klus, Stefan A1 - Bittracher, Andreas A1 - Schuster, Ingmar A1 - Schütte, Christof T1 - A kernel-based approach to molecular conformation analysis JF - Journal of Chemical Physics N2 - We present a novel machine learning approach to understanding conformation dynamics of biomolecules. The approach combines kernel-based techniques that are popular in the machine learning community with transfer operator theory for analyzing dynamical systems in order to identify conformation dynamics based on molecular dynamics simulation data. We show that many of the prominent methods like Markov State Models, EDMD, and TICA can be regarded as special cases of this approach and that new efficient algorithms can be constructed based on this derivation. The results of these new powerful methods will be illustrated with several examples, in particular the alanine dipeptide and the protein NTL9. Y1 - 2018 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1063/1.5063533 VL - 149 IS - 24 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Shao, Borong A1 - Bjaanaes, Maria A1 - Helland, Aslaug A1 - Schütte, Christof A1 - Conrad, Tim T1 - EMT network-based feature selection improves prognosis prediction in lung adenocarcinoma JF - PLOS ONE N2 - Various feature selection algorithms have been proposed to identify cancer prognostic biomarkers. In recent years, however, their reproducibility is criticized. The performance of feature selection algorithms is shown to be affected by the datasets, underlying networks and evaluation metrics. One of the causes is the curse of dimensionality, which makes it hard to select the features that generalize well on independent data. Even the integration of biological networks does not mitigate this issue because the networks are large and many of their components are not relevant for the phenotype of interest. With the availability of multi-omics data, integrative approaches are being developed to build more robust predictive models. In this scenario, the higher data dimensions create greater challenges. We proposed a phenotype relevant network-based feature selection (PRNFS) framework and demonstrated its advantages in lung cancer prognosis prediction. We constructed cancer prognosis relevant networks based on epithelial mesenchymal transition (EMT) and integrated them with different types of omics data for feature selection. With less than 2.5% of the total dimensionality, we obtained EMT prognostic signatures that achieved remarkable prediction performance (average AUC values above 0.8), very significant sample stratifications, and meaningful biological interpretations. In addition to finding EMT signatures from different omics data levels, we combined these single-omics signatures into multi-omics signatures, which improved sample stratifications significantly. Both single- and multi-omics EMT signatures were tested on independent multi-omics lung cancer datasets and significant sample stratifications were obtained. Y1 - 2019 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0204186 VL - 14 IS - 1 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Gupta, Pooja A1 - Peter, Sarah A1 - Jung, Markus A1 - Lewin, Astrid A1 - Hemmrich-Stanisak, Georg A1 - Franke, Andre A1 - von Kleist, Max A1 - Schütte, Christof A1 - Einspanier, Ralf A1 - Sharbati, Soroush A1 - zur Bruegge, Jennifer T1 - Analysis of long non-coding RNA and mRNA expression in bovine macrophages brings up novel 2 aspects of Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis infections JF - Scientific Reports in Nature N2 - Paratuberculosis is a major disease in cattle that severely affects animal welfare and causes huge economic losses worldwide. Development of alternative diagnostic methods is of urgent need to control the disease. Recent studies suggest that long non-coding RNAs (lncRNAs) play a crucial role in regulating immune function and may confer valuable information about the disease. However, their role has not yet been investigated in cattle with respect to infection towards Paratuberculosis. Therefore, we investigated the alteration in genomic expression profiles of mRNA and lncRNA in bovine macrophages in response to Paratuberculosis infection using RNA-Seq. We identified 397 potentially novel lncRNA candidates in macrophages of which 38 were differentially regulated by the infection. A total of 820 coding genes were also significantly altered by the infection. Co-expression analysis of lncRNAs and their neighbouring coding genes suggest regulatory functions of lncRNAs in pathways related to immune response. For example, this included protein coding genes such as TNIP3, TNFAIP3 and NF-κB2 that play a role in NF-κB2 signalling, a pathway associated with immune response. This study advances our understanding of lncRNA roles during Paratuberculosis infection. Y1 - 2019 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-38141-x VL - 9 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Schütte, Christof A1 - Wulkow, Michael T1 - A hybrid Galerkin-Monte-Carlo approach to higher-dimensional population balances in polymerization kinetics JF - Macromol. React. Eng. Y1 - 2010 VL - 4 SP - 562 EP - 577 ER - TY - BOOK A1 - Schütte, Christof A1 - Sarich, Marco T1 - Metastability and Markov State Models in Molecular Dynamics: Modeling, Analysis, Algorithmic Approaches Y1 - 2013 N1 - Courant Lecture Notes No. 32, American Mathematical Society PB - American Mathematical Society ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Paulus, Florian A1 - Weiss, Maximilian A1 - Steinhilber, Dirk A1 - Nikitin, Anatoly A1 - Schütte, Christof A1 - Haag, Rainer T1 - Anionic Ring-Opening Polymerization Simulations for Hyperbranched Polyglycerols with Defined Molecular Weights JF - Macromolecules Y1 - 2013 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1021/ma401712w VL - 46 IS - 21 SP - 8458 EP - 8466 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Hartmann, Carsten A1 - Banisch, Ralf A1 - Sarich, Marco A1 - Badowski, Thomas A1 - Schütte, Christof T1 - Characterization of Rare Events in Molecular Dynamics JF - Entropy (Special Issue) Y1 - 2013 U6 - https://doi.org/10.3390/e16010350 VL - 16 IS - 1 SP - 350 EP - 376 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Sarich, Marco A1 - Banisch, Ralf A1 - Hartmann, Carsten A1 - Schütte, Christof T1 - Markov State Models for Rare Events in Molecular Dynamics JF - Entropy (Special Issue) Y1 - 2013 U6 - https://doi.org/10.3390/e16010258 VL - 16 IS - 1 SP - 258 EP - 286 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Wang, Han A1 - Hartmann, Carsten A1 - Schütte, Christof T1 - Linear response theory and optimal control for a molecular system under nonequilibrium conditions JF - Molecular Physics Y1 - 2013 UR - http://publications.imp.fu-berlin.de/1297/ U6 - https://doi.org/10.1080/00268976.2013.844370 VL - 111 SP - 3555 EP - 3564 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Nikitin, B. A. A1 - Wulkow, Michael A1 - Schütte, Christof T1 - Modeling of Free Radical Styrene/Divinylbenzene Copolymerization with the Numerical Fractionation Technique JF - Macromolecular Theory and Simulation Y1 - 2013 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1002/mats.201300125 VL - 22 IS - 9 SP - 475 EP - 489 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Enciso, Marta A1 - Schütte, Christof A1 - Delle Site, Luigi T1 - pH-dependent Response of Coiled Coils: A Coarse-Grained Molecular Simulation Study JF - Molecular Physics Y1 - 2013 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1080/00268976.2013.827254 VL - 111 IS - 22-23 SP - 3363 EP - 3371 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Wang, Han A1 - Schütte, Christof A1 - Ciccotti, Giovanni A1 - Delle Site, Luigi T1 - Exploring the conformational dynamics of alanine dipeptide in solution subjected to an external electric field: A nonequilibrium molecular dynamics simulation JF - Journal of Chemical Theory and Computation Y1 - 2014 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1186/s12859-017-1565-4 VL - 10 IS - 4 SP - 1376 EP - 1386 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Weber, Marcus A1 - Fackeldey, Konstantin A1 - Schütte, Christof T1 - Set-free Markov State Building N2 - Molecular dynamics (MD) simulations face challenging problems since the timescales of interest often are much longer than what is possible to simulate and even if sufficiently long simulation are possible the complex nature of the resulting simulation data makes interpretation difficult. Markov State Models (MSMs) help to overcome these problems by making experimentally relevant timescales accessible via coarse grained representations that also allows for convenient interpretation. However, standard set-based MSMs exhibit some caveats limiting their approximation quality and statistical significance. One of the main caveats results from the fact that typical MD trajectories repeatedly re-cross the boundary between the sets used to build the MSM which causes statistical bias in estimating the transition probabilities between these sets. In this article, we present a set-free approach to MSM building utilizing smooth overlapping ansatz functions instead of sets and an adaptive refinement approach. This kind of meshless discretization helps to overcome the recrossing problem and yields an adaptive refinement procedure that allows to improve the quality of the model while exploring state space and inserting new ansatz functions into the MSM. T3 - ZIB-Report - 17-10 Y1 - 2017 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:0297-zib-62167 SN - 1438-0064 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Winkelmann, Stefanie A1 - Schütte, Christof T1 - The spatiotemporal master equation: approximation of reaction-diffusion dynamics via Markov state modeling N2 - Accurate modeling and numerical simulation of reaction kinetics is a topic of steady interest. We consider the spatiotemporal chemical master equation (ST-CME) as a model for stochastic reaction-diffusion systems that exhibit properties of metastability. The space of motion is decomposed into metastable compartments and diffusive motion is approximated by jumps between these compartments. Treating these jumps as first-order reactions, simulation of the resulting stochastic system is possible by the Gillespie method. We present the theory of Markov state models (MSM) as a theoretical foundation of this intuitive approach. By means of Markov state modeling, both the number and shape of compartments and the transition rates between them can be determined. We consider the ST-CME for two reaction-diffusion systems and compare it to more detailed models. Moreover, a rigorous formal justification of the ST-CME by Galerkin projection methods is presented. T3 - ZIB-Report - 16-60 KW - reaction-diffusion KW - stochastic chemical kinetics KW - chemical master equation Y1 - 2016 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:0297-zib-60999 SN - 1438-0064 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Klebanov, Ilja A1 - Sikorski, Alexander A1 - Schütte, Christof A1 - Röblitz, Susanna T1 - Empirical Bayes Methods, Reference Priors, Cross Entropy and the EM Algorithm N2 - When estimating a probability density within the empirical Bayes framework, the non-parametric maximum likelihood estimate (NPMLE) usually tends to overfit the data. This issue is usually taken care of by regularization - a penalization term is subtracted from the marginal log-likelihood before the maximization step, so that the estimate favors smooth solutions, resulting in the so-called maximum penalized likelihood estimation (MPLE). The majority of penalizations currently in use are rather arbitrary brute-force solutions, which lack invariance under transformation of the parameters(reparametrization) and measurements. This contradicts the principle that, if the underlying model has several equivalent formulations, the methods of inductive inference should lead to consistent results. Motivated by this principle and using an information-theoretic point of view, we suggest an entropy-based penalization term that guarantees this kind of invariance. The resulting density estimate can be seen as a generalization of reference priors. Using the reference prior as a hyperprior, on the other hand, is argued to be a poor choice for regularization. We also present an insightful connection between the NPMLE, the cross entropy and the principle of minimum discrimination information suggesting another method of inference that contains the doubly-smoothed maximum likelihood estimation as a special case. T3 - ZIB-Report - 16-56 KW - parameter estimation KW - Bayesian inference KW - Bayesian hierarchical modeling KW - hyperparameter KW - hyperprior KW - EM algorithm KW - NPMLE KW - MPLE KW - DS-MLE KW - principle of maximum entropy KW - cross entropy KW - minimum discrimination information KW - reference prior KW - Jeffreys prior Y1 - 2016 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:0297-zib-61230 SN - 1438-0064 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Klebanov, Ilja A1 - Sikorski, Alexander A1 - Schütte, Christof A1 - Röblitz, Susanna T1 - Empirical Bayes Methods for Prior Estimation in Systems Medicine N2 - One of the main goals of mathematical modelling in systems medicine related to medical applications is to obtain patient-specific parameterizations and model predictions. In clinical practice, however, the number of available measurements for single patients is usually limited due to time and cost restrictions. This hampers the process of making patient-specific predictions about the outcome of a treatment. On the other hand, data are often available for many patients, in particular if extensive clinical studies have been performed. Therefore, before applying Bayes’ rule separately to the data of each patient (which is typically performed using a non-informative prior), it is meaningful to use empirical Bayes methods in order to construct an informative prior from all available data. We compare the performance of four priors - a non-informative prior and priors chosen by nonparametric maximum likelihood estimation (NPMLE), by maximum penalized lilelihood estimation (MPLE) and by doubly-smoothed maximum likelihood estimation (DS-MLE) - by applying them to a low-dimensional parameter estimation problem in a toy model as well as to a high-dimensional ODE model of the human menstrual cycle, which represents a typical example from systems biology modelling. T3 - ZIB-Report - 16-57 KW - Parameter estimation KW - Bayesian inference KW - Bayesian hierarchical modelling KW - NPMLE KW - MPLE KW - DS-MLE KW - EM algorithm KW - Jeffreys prior KW - reference prior KW - hyperparameter KW - hyperprior KW - principle of maximum entropy Y1 - 2016 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:0297-zib-61307 SN - 1438-0064 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Hartmann, Carsten A1 - Schütte, Christof A1 - Weber, Marcus A1 - Zhang, Wei T1 - Importance sampling in path space for diffusion processes with slow-fast variables JF - Probability Theory and Related Fields N2 - Importance sampling is a widely used technique to reduce the variance of a Monte Carlo estimator by an appropriate change of measure. In this work, we study importance sampling in the framework of diffusion process and consider the change of measure which is realized by adding a control force to the original dynamics. For certain exponential type expectation, the corresponding control force of the optimal change of measure leads to a zero-variance estimator and is related to the solution of a Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellmann equation. We focus on certain diffusions with both slow and fast variables, and the main result is that we obtain an upper bound of the relative error for the importance sampling estimators with control obtained from the limiting dynamics. We demonstrate our approximation strategy with an illustrative numerical example. Y1 - 2017 UR - http://rdcu.be/oA51 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s00440-017-0755-3 N1 - If you are not subscribing to the journal please use the http link below as part of the Springer Nature SharedIt initiative SP - 1 EP - 52 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Winkelmann, Stefanie A1 - Schütte, Christof T1 - The Spatiotemporal Master Equation: Approximation of Reaction-Diffusion Dynamics via Markov State Modeling JF - Journal of Chemical Physics N2 - Accurate modeling and numerical simulation of reaction kinetics is a topic of steady interest.We consider the spatiotemporal chemical master equation (ST-CME) as a model for stochastic reaction-diffusion systems that exhibit properties of metastability. The space of motion is decomposed into metastable compartments and diffusive motion is approximated by jumps between these compartments. Treating these jumps as first-order reactions, simulation of the resulting stochastic system is possible by the Gillespie method. We present the theory of Markov state models (MSM) as a theoretical foundation of this intuitive approach. By means of Markov state modeling, both the number and shape of compartments and the transition rates between them can be determined. We consider the ST-CME for two reaction-diffusion systems and compare it to more detailed models. Moreover, a rigorous formal justification of the ST-CME by Galerkin projection methods is presented. Y1 - 2016 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1063/1.4971163 VL - 145 IS - 21 ER -