TY - GEN A1 - Lie, Han Cheng A1 - Sullivan, T. J. A1 - Teckentrup, Aretha T1 - Random forward models and log-likelihoods in Bayesian inverse problems T2 - SIAM/ASA Journal on Uncertainty Quantification N2 - We consider the use of randomised forward models and log-likelihoods within the Bayesian approach to inverse problems. Such random approximations to the exact forward model or log-likelihood arise naturally when a computationally expensive model is approximated using a cheaper stochastic surrogate, as in Gaussian process emulation (kriging), or in the field of probabilistic numerical methods. We show that the Hellinger distance between the exact and approximate Bayesian posteriors is bounded by moments of the difference between the true and approximate log-likelihoods. Example applications of these stability results are given for randomised misfit models in large data applications and the probabilistic solution of ordinary differential equations. T3 - ZIB-Report - 18-03 KW - Bayesian inverse problem KW - random likelihood KW - surrogate model KW - posterior consistency KW - probabilistic numerics KW - uncertainty quantification KW - randomised misfit Y1 - 2018 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:0297-zib-66324 SN - 1438-0064 VL - 6 IS - 4 SP - 1600 EP - 1629 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Nielsen, Adam A1 - Weber, Marcus T1 - Computing the nearest reversible Markov chain N2 - Reversible Markov chains are the basis of many applications. However, computing transition probabilities by a finite sampling of a Markov chain can lead to truncation errors. Even if the original Markov chain is reversible, the approximated Markov chain might be non-reversible and will lose important properties, like the real valued spectrum. In this paper, we show how to find the closest reversible Markov chain to a given transition matrix. It turns out that this matrix can be computed by solving a convex minimization problem. T3 - ZIB-Report - 14-48 KW - Reversible Markov Chain KW - Convex Optimization KW - MSM Y1 - 2014 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:0297-zib-53292 SN - 1438-0064 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Nielsen, Adam A1 - Weber, Marcus T1 - Computing the nearest reversible Markov chain JF - Numerical Linear Algebra with Applications N2 - Reversible Markov chains are the basis of many applications. However, computing transition probabilities by a finite sampling of a Markov chain can lead to truncation errors. Even if the original Markov chain is reversible, the approximated Markov chain might be non-reversible and will lose important properties, like the real valued spectrum. In this paper, we show how to find the closest reversible Markov chain to a given transition matrix. It turns out that this matrix can be computed by solving a convex minimization problem. KW - Reversible Markov Chain KW - Convex Optimization KW - MSM Y1 - 2015 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1002/nla.1967 VL - 22 IS - 3 SP - 483 EP - 499 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Quer, Jannes A1 - Donati, Luca A1 - Keller, Bettina A1 - Weber, Marcus T1 - An automatic adaptive importance sampling algorithm for molecular dynamics in reaction coordinates N2 - In this article we propose an adaptive importance sampling scheme for dynamical quantities of high dimensional complex systems which are metastable. The main idea of this article is to combine a method coming from Molecular Dynamics Simulation, Metadynamics, with a theorem from stochastic analysis, Girsanov's theorem. The proposed algorithm has two advantages compared to a standard estimator of dynamic quantities: firstly, it is possible to produce estimators with a lower variance and, secondly, we can speed up the sampling. One of the main problems for building importance sampling schemes for metastable systems is to find the metastable region in order to manipulate the potential accordingly. Our method circumvents this problem by using an assimilated version of the Metadynamics algorithm and thus creates a non-equilibrium dynamics which is used to sample the equilibrium quantities. T3 - ZIB-Report - 17-09 KW - Adaptive Importance Sampling KW - Molecular Dynamics KW - Metastability KW - Variance Reduction KW - Non Equilibrium Sampling KW - Metadynamics KW - Girsanov Y1 - 2017 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:0297-zib-62075 SN - 1438-0064 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Özel, M. Neset A1 - Kulkarni, Abhishek A1 - Hasan, Amr A1 - Brummer, Josephine A1 - Moldenhauer, Marian A1 - Daumann, Ilsa-Maria A1 - Wolfenberg, Heike A1 - Dercksen, Vincent J. A1 - Kiral, F. Ridvan A1 - Weiser, Martin A1 - Prohaska, Steffen A1 - von Kleist, Max A1 - Hiesinger, Peter Robin T1 - Serial synapse formation through filopodial competition for synaptic seeding factors N2 - Following axon pathfinding, growth cones transition from stochastic filopodial exploration to the formation of a limited number of synapses. How the interplay of filopodia and synapse assembly ensures robust connectivity in the brain has remained a challenging problem. Here, we developed a new 4D analysis method for filopodial dynamics and a data-driven computational model of synapse formation for R7 photoreceptor axons in developing Drosophila brains. Our live data support a 'serial synapse formation' model, where at any time point only a single 'synaptogenic' filopodium suppresses the synaptic competence of other filopodia through competition for synaptic seeding factors. Loss of the synaptic seeding factors Syd-1 and Liprin-α leads to a loss of this suppression, filopodial destabilization and reduced synapse formation, which is sufficient to cause the destabilization of entire axon terminals. Our model provides a filopodial 'winner-takes-all' mechanism that ensures the formation of an appropriate number of synapses. T3 - ZIB-Report - 19-45 KW - filopodia KW - growth cone dynamics KW - brain wiring KW - 2-photon microscopy KW - model Y1 - 2019 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:0297-zib-74397 SN - 1438-0064 ER -