TY - GEN A1 - Nielsen, Adam T1 - The Monte Carlo Computation Error of Transition Probabilities N2 - In many applications one is interested to compute transition probabilities of a Markov chain. This can be achieved by using Monte Carlo methods with local or global sampling points. In this article, we analyze the error by the difference in the $L^2$ norm between the true transition probabilities and the approximation achieved through a Monte Carlo method. We give a formula for the error for Markov chains with locally computed sampling points. Further, in the case of reversible Markov chains, we will deduce a formula for the error when sampling points are computed globally. We will see that in both cases the error itself can be approximated with Monte Carlo methods. As a consequence of the result, we will derive surprising properties of reversible Markov chains. T3 - ZIB-Report - 16-37 KW - Reversible Markov chain KW - Monte Carlo methods KW - Computation error KW - Measurable state space KW - Markov operator Y1 - 2016 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:0297-zib-59933 SN - 1438-0064 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Weber, Marcus A1 - Quer, Jannes T1 - Estimating exit rates in rare event dynamical systems via extrapolation N2 - In this article we present a new idea for approximating exit rates for diffusion processes living in a craggy landscape. We are especially interested in the exit rates of a process living in a metastable regions. Due to the fact that Monte Carlo simulations perform quite poor and are very computational expensive in this setting we create several similar situations with a smoothed potential. For this we introduce a new parameter $\lambda \in [0,1]$ ($\lambda = 1$ very smoothed potential, $\lambda=0$ original potential) into the potential which controls the influence the smoothing. We then sample the exit rate for different parameters $\lambda$ the exit rate from a given region. Due to the fact that $\lambda$ is connected to the exit rate we can use this dependency to approximate the real exit rate. The method can be seen as something between hyperdynamics and temperature accelerated MC. T3 - ZIB-Report - 15-54 KW - rare event sampling, smoothing, membership functions, perturbed potential Y1 - 2015 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:0297-zib-56622 SN - 1438-0064 ER -