TY - JOUR A1 - Niemann, Jan-Hendrik A1 - Winkelmann, Stefanie A1 - Wolf, Sarah A1 - Schütte, Christof T1 - Agent-based modeling: Population limits and large timescales JF - Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science N2 - Modeling, simulation and analysis of interacting agent systems is a broad field of research, with existing approaches reaching from informal descriptions of interaction dynamics to more formal, mathematical models. In this paper, we study agent-based models (ABMs) given as continuous-time stochastic processes and their pathwise approximation by ordinary and stochastic differential equations (ODEs and SDEs, respectively) for medium to large populations. By means of an appropriately adapted transfer operator approach we study the behavior of the ABM process on long time scales. We show that, under certain conditions, the transfer operator approach allows to bridge the gap between the pathwise results for large populations on finite timescales, i.e., the SDE limit model, and approaches built to study dynamical behavior on long time scales like large deviation theory. The latter provides a rigorous analysis of rare events including the associated asymptotic rates on timescales that scale exponentially with the population size. We demonstrate that it is possible to reveal metastable structures and timescales of rare events of the ABM process by finite-length trajectories of the SDE process for large enough populations. This approach has the potential to drastically reduce computational effort for the analysis of ABMs. Y1 - 2021 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:0297-zib-77309 SN - 1438-0064 VL - 31 IS - 3 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Fürst, Steffen A1 - Conrad, Tim A1 - Jaeger, Carlo A1 - Wolf, Sarah T1 - Vahana.jl - A framework (not only) for large-scale agent-based models JF - Proceedings of Social Simulation Conference 2024 (SSC24) Y1 - 2024 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Wolf, Sarah A1 - Fürst, Steffen A1 - Geiges, Andreas A1 - Laublichler, Manfred A1 - Mielke, Jahel A1 - Steudle, Gesine A1 - Winter, Konstantin A1 - Jaeger, Carlo T1 - The Decision Theatre Triangle for societal challenges – an example case and research needs JF - Journal of Cleaner Production N2 - Tackling societal challenges relating to sustainability requires both an understanding of the underlying complex socio-ecological systems and participation of scientists as well as relevant stakeholders, such as practice experts, decision makers, and citizens. This paper introduces the Decision Theatre Triangle, a method which combines empirical information, mathematical modelling and simulation, and a format for dialogue between scientists and stakeholders. While it builds on previous Decision Theatre work, the new structuring into these three elements emphasizes what is needed for setting up a Decision Theatre for a given challenge. Based on experience with a specific example – sustainable mobility in Germany – it is argued that agent-based models are particularly suitable for Decision Theatres and that the method is useful not only for decision support but also for science communication and co-creation of a deeper knowledge of the system under discussion. As a step towards facilitating a broader use of the Decision Theatre Triangle method, the paper then sketches research needs for each of its three elements, with a focus on mathematical modelling and simulation. Y1 - 2023 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2023.136299 VL - 394 SP - 136299 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Niemann, Jan-Hendrik A1 - Uram, Samuel A1 - Wolf, Sarah A1 - Conrad, Natasa Djurdjevac A1 - Weiser, Martin T1 - Multilevel Optimization for Policy Design with Agent-Based Epidemic Models JF - Computational Science N2 - Epidemiological models can not only be used to forecast the course of a pandemic like COVID-19, but also to propose and design non-pharmaceutical interventions such as school and work closing. In general, the design of optimal policies leads to nonlinear optimization problems that can be solved by numerical algorithms. Epidemiological models come in different complexities, ranging from systems of simple ordinary differential equations (ODEs) to complex agent-based models (ABMs). The former allow a fast and straightforward optimization, but are limited in accuracy, detail, and parameterization, while the latter can resolve spreading processes in detail, but are extremely expensive to optimize. We consider policy optimization in a prototypical situation modeled as both ODE and ABM, review numerical optimization approaches, and propose a heterogeneous multilevel approach based on combining a fine-resolution ABM and a coarse ODE model. Numerical experiments, in particular with respect to convergence speed, are given for illustrative examples. Y1 - 2024 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jocs.2024.102242 VL - 77 SP - 102242 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Steudle, Gesine A1 - Winkelmann, Stefanie A1 - Fürst, Steffen A1 - Wolf, Sarah T1 - Understanding Memory Mechanisms in Socio-Technical Systems: the Case of an Agent-based Mobility Model JF - Advances in Complex Systems N2 - This paper explores memory mechanisms in complex socio-technical systems, using a mobility demand model as an example case. We simplified a large-scale agent-based mobility model into a Markov process and discover that the mobility decision process is non-Markovian. This is due to its dependence on the system’s history, including social structure and local infrastructure, which evolve based on prior mobility decisions. To make the process Markovian, we extend the state space by incorporating two history-dependent components. Although our model is a very much reduced version of the original one, it remains too complex for the application of usual analytic methods. Instead, we employ simulations to examine the functionalities of the two history-dependent components. We think that the structure of the analyzed stochastic process is exemplary for many socio-technical, -economic, -ecological systems. Additionally, it exhibits analogies with the framework of extended evolution, which has previously been used to study cultural evolution. Y1 - 2024 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1142/S0219525924400034 VL - 27 ER -