TY - JOUR A1 - Petkovic, Milena A1 - Chen, Ying A1 - Gamrath, Inken A1 - Gotzes, Uwe A1 - Hadjidimitrou, Natalia Selini A1 - Zittel, Janina A1 - Xu, Xiaofei A1 - Koch, Thorsten T1 - A hybrid approach for high precision prediction of gas flows JF - Energy Systems N2 - About 23% of the German energy demand is supplied by natural gas. Additionally, for about the same amount Germany serves as a transit country. Thereby, the German network represents a central hub in the European natural gas transport network. The transport infrastructure is operated by transmissions system operators (TSOs). The number one priority of the TSOs is to ensure the security of supply. However, the TSOs have only very limited knowledge about the intentions and planned actions of the shippers (traders). Open Grid Europe (OGE), one of Germany’s largest TSO, operates a high-pressure transport network of about 12,000 km length. With the introduction of peak-load gas power stations, it is of great importance to predict in- and out-flow of the network to ensure the necessary flexibility and security of supply for the German Energy Transition (“Energiewende”). In this paper, we introduce a novel hybrid forecast method applied to gas flows at the boundary nodes of a transport network. This method employs an optimized feature selection and minimization. We use a combination of a FAR, LSTM and mathematical programming to achieve robust high-quality forecasts on real-world data for different types of network nodes. Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s12667-021-00466-4 VL - 13 SP - 383 EP - 408 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Petkovic, Milena A1 - Chen, Ying A1 - Gamrath, Inken A1 - Gotzes, Uwe A1 - Hadjidimitriou, Natalia Selini A1 - Zittel, Janina A1 - Xu, Xiaofei A1 - Koch, Thorsten T1 - A Hybrid Approach for High Precision Prediction of Gas Flows N2 - About 20% of the German energy demand is supplied by natural gas. Ad- ditionally, for about twice the amount Germany serves as a transit country. Thereby, the German network represents a central hub in the European natural gas transport network. The transport infrastructure is operated by so-called transmissions system operators or TSOs. The number one priority of the TSOs is to ensure security of supply. However, the TSOs have no knowledge of the intentions and planned actions of the shippers (traders). Open Grid Europe (OGE), one of Germany’s largest TSO, operates a high- pressure transport network of about 12.000 km length. Since flexibility and security of supply is of utmost importance to the German Energy Transition (“Energiewende”) especially with the introduction of peak-load gas power stations, being able to predict in- and out-flow of the network is of great importance. In this paper we introduce a new hybrid forecast method applied to gas flows at the boundary nodes of a transport network. The new method employs optimized feature minimization and selection. We use a combination of an FAR, LSTM DNN and mathematical programming to achieve robust high quality forecasts on real world data for different types of network nodes. Keywords: Gas Forecast, Time series, Hybrid Method, FAR, LSTM, Mathematical Optimisation T3 - ZIB-Report - 19-26 Y1 - 2019 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:0297-zib-73525 SN - 1438-0064 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Pedersen, Jaap A1 - Spreckelsen, Klaus A1 - Gotzes, Uwe A1 - Zittel, Janina A1 - Koch, Thorsten T1 - Beimischung von Wasserstoff zum Erdgas: Eine Kapazitätsstudie des deutschen Gasnetzes T1 - Blending hydrogen into natural gas: An assessment of the capacity of the German gas grid JF - gwf Gas + Energie N2 - Die europaische Gasinfrastruktur wird disruptiv in ein zukunftiges dekarbonisiertes Energiesystem verändert; ein Prozess, der angesichts der jüngsten politischen Situation beschleunigt werden muss. Mit einem wachsenden Wasserstoffmarkt wird der pipelinebasierte Transport unter Nutzung der bestehenden Erdgasinfrastruktur wirtschaftlich sinnvoll, trägt zur Erhöhung der öffentlichen Akzeptanz bei und beschleunigt den Umstellungsprozess. In diesem Beitrag wird die maximal technisch machbare Einspeisung von Wasserstoff in das bestehende deutsche Erdgastransportnetz hinsichtlich regulatorischer Grenzwerte der Gasqualität analysiert. Die Analyse erfolgt auf Basis eines transienten Tracking-Modells, das auf dem allgemeinen Pooling-Problem einschließlich Linepack aufbaut. Es zeigt sich, dass das Gasnetz auch bei strengen Grenzwerten gen ̈ugend Kapazität bietet, um für einen großen Teil der bis 2030 geplanten Erzeugungskapazität für grünen Wasserstoff als garantierter Abnehmer zu dienen. N2 - The European gas infrastructure is being disruptively transformed into a future decarbonised energy system; a process that needs to be accelerated given the recent political situation. With a growing hydrogen market, pipeline-based transport using the existing natural gas infrastructure becomes economically viable, helps to increase public acceptance and accelerates the transition process. In this paper, the maximum technically feasible feed-in of hydrogen into the existing German natural gas transport network is analysed with regard to regulatory limits of gas quality. Analysis is based on a transient tracking model that builds on the general pooling problem including linepack. It is shown that even with strict limits, the gas grid offers sufficient capacity to serve as a guaranteed customer for a large part of the green hydrogen generation capacity planned until 2030. Y1 - 2023 PB - Vulkan Verlag ET - 06/2023 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Pedersen, Jaap A1 - Spreckelsen, Klaus A1 - Gotzes, Uwe A1 - Zittel, Janina A1 - Koch, Thorsten T1 - Beimischung von Wasserstoff zum Erdgas: Eine Kapazitätsstudie des deutschen Gasnetzes JF - 3R – Fachzeitschrift für Rohrleitungssystem N2 - Die europäische Gasinfrastruktur wird disruptiv in ein zukünftiges dekarbonisiertes Energiesystem verändert; ein Prozess, der angesichts der jüngsten politischen Situation beschleunigt werden muss. Mit einem wachsenden Wasserstoffmarkt wird der pipelinebasierte Transport unter Nutzung der bestehenden Erdgasinfrastruktur wirtschaftlich sinnvoll, trägt zur Erhöhung der öffentlichen Akzeptanz bei und beschleunigt den Umstellungsprozess. In diesem Fachbeitrag wird die maximal technisch machbare Einspeisung von Wasserstoff in das bestehende deutsche Erdgastransportnetz hinsichtlich regulatorischer Grenzwerte der Gasqualität analysiert. Die Analyse erfolgt auf Basis eines transienten Tracking-Modells, das auf dem allgemeinen Pooling-Problem einschließlich Linepack aufbaut. Es zeigt sich, dass das Gasnetz auch bei strengen Grenzwerten genügend Kapazität bietet, um für einen großen Teil der bis 2030 geplanten Erzeugungskapazität für grünen Wasserstoff als garantierter Abnehmer zu dienen. Y1 - 2023 IS - 06/2023 SP - 70 EP - 75 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Hoppmann-Baum, Kai A1 - Hennings, Felix A1 - Zittel, Janina A1 - Gotzes, Uwe A1 - Spreckelsen, Eva-Maria A1 - Spreckelsen, Klaus A1 - Koch, Thorsten T1 - An Optimization Approach for the Transient Control of Hydrogen Transport Networks JF - Mathematical Methods of Operations Research Y1 - 2021 IS - Special Issue on Energy Networks ER - TY - GEN A1 - Hoppmann-Baum, Kai A1 - Hennings, Felix A1 - Zittel, Janina A1 - Gotzes, Uwe A1 - Spreckelsen, Eva-Maria A1 - Spreckelsen, Klaus A1 - Koch, Thorsten T1 - From Natural Gas towards Hydrogen - A Feasibility Study on Current Transport Network Infrastructure and its Technical Control N2 - This study examines the usability of a real-world, large-scale natural gas transport infrastructure for hydrogen transport. We investigate whether a converted network can transport the amounts of hydrogen necessary to satisfy current energy demands. After introducing an optimization model for the robust transient control of hydrogen networks, we conduct computational experiments based on real-world demand scenarios. Using a representative network, we demonstrate that replacing each turbo compressor unit by four parallel hydrogen compressors, each of them comprising multiple serial compression stages, and imposing stricter rules regarding the balancing of in- and outflow suffices to realize transport in a majority of scenarios. However, due to the reduced linepack there is an increased need for technical and non-technical measures leading to a more dynamic network control. Furthermore, the amount of energy needed for compression increases by 364% on average. T3 - ZIB-Report - 20-27 KW - Hydrogen Transport KW - Hydrogen Infrastructure KW - Network Flows KW - Mixed Integer Programming KW - Energiewende Y1 - 2020 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:0297-zib-79901 SN - 1438-0064 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Hoppmann-Baum, Kai A1 - Hennings, Felix A1 - Lenz, Ralf A1 - Gotzes, Uwe A1 - Heinecke, Nina A1 - Spreckelsen, Klaus A1 - Koch, Thorsten T1 - Optimal Operation of Transient Gas Transport Networks JF - Optimization and Engineering N2 - In this paper, we describe an algorithmic framework for the optimal operation of transient gas transport networks consisting of a hierarchical MILP formulation together with a sequential linear programming inspired post-processing routine. Its implementation is part of the KOMPASS decision support system, which is currently used in an industrial setting. Real-world gas transport networks are controlled by operating complex pipeline intersection areas, which comprise multiple compressor units, regulators, and valves. In the following, we introduce the concept of network stations to model them. Thereby, we represent the technical capabilities of a station by hand-tailored artificial arcs and add them to network. Furthermore, we choose from a predefined set of flow directions for each network station and time step, which determines where the gas enters and leaves the station. Additionally, we have to select a supported simple state, which consists of two subsets of artificial arcs: Arcs that must and arcs that cannot be used. The goal is to determine a stable control of the network satisfying all supplies and demands. The pipeline intersections, that are represented by the network stations, were initially built centuries ago. Subsequently, due to updates, changes, and extensions, they evolved into highly complex and involved topologies. To extract their basic properties and to model them using computer-readable and optimizable descriptions took several years of effort. To support the dispatchers in controlling the network, we need to compute a continuously updated list of recommended measures. Our motivation for the model presented here is to make fast decisions on important transient global control parameters, i.e., how to route the flow and where to compress the gas. Detailed continuous and discrete technical control measures realizing them, which take all hardware details into account, are determined in a subsequent step. In this paper, we present computational results from the KOMPASS project using detailed real-world data. Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s11081-020-09584-x VL - 22 SP - 735 EP - 781 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Hoppmann, Kai A1 - Hennings, Felix A1 - Lenz, Ralf A1 - Gotzes, Uwe A1 - Heinecke, Nina A1 - Spreckelsen, Klaus A1 - Koch, Thorsten T1 - Optimal Operation of Transient Gas Transport Networks T3 - ZIB-Report - 19-23 Y1 - 2019 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:0297-zib-73639 SN - 1438-0064 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Gotzes, Uwe A1 - Hoppmann-Baum, Kai T1 - Bounding the final rank during a round robin tournament with integer programming JF - Operational Research N2 - This article is mainly motivated by the urge to answer two kinds of questions regarding the Bundesliga, which is Germany’s primary football (soccer) division having the highest average stadium attendance worldwide: “At any point in the season, what is the lowest final rank a certain team can achieve?” and “At any point in the season, what is the highest final rank a certain team can achieve?”. Although we focus on the Bundesliga in particular, the integer programming formulations we introduce to answer these questions can easily be adapted to a variety of other league systems and tournaments. Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1007/s12351-020-00546-w VL - 1866-1505 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Gotzes, Uwe A1 - Hoppmann, Kai T1 - Bounds for the final ranks during a round robin tournament T2 - Operational Research - An International Journal (ORIJ) N2 - This article answers two kinds of questions regarding the Bundesliga which is Germany's primary football (soccer) competition having the highest average stadium attendance worldwide. First "At any point of the season, what final rank will a certain team definitely reach?" and second "At any point of the season, what final rank can a certain team at most reach?". Although we focus especially on the Bundesliga, the models that we use to answer the two questions can easily be adopted to league systems that are similar to that of the Bundesliga. T3 - ZIB-Report - 19-50 Y1 - 2019 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:0297-zib-74638 ER -