TY - JOUR A1 - Petkovic, Milena A1 - Chen, Ying A1 - Gamrath, Inken A1 - Gotzes, Uwe A1 - Hadjidimitrou, Natalia Selini A1 - Zittel, Janina A1 - Xu, Xiaofei A1 - Koch, Thorsten T1 - A hybrid approach for high precision prediction of gas flows JF - Energy Systems N2 - About 23% of the German energy demand is supplied by natural gas. Additionally, for about the same amount Germany serves as a transit country. Thereby, the German network represents a central hub in the European natural gas transport network. The transport infrastructure is operated by transmissions system operators (TSOs). The number one priority of the TSOs is to ensure the security of supply. However, the TSOs have only very limited knowledge about the intentions and planned actions of the shippers (traders). Open Grid Europe (OGE), one of Germany’s largest TSO, operates a high-pressure transport network of about 12,000 km length. With the introduction of peak-load gas power stations, it is of great importance to predict in- and out-flow of the network to ensure the necessary flexibility and security of supply for the German Energy Transition (“Energiewende”). In this paper, we introduce a novel hybrid forecast method applied to gas flows at the boundary nodes of a transport network. This method employs an optimized feature selection and minimization. We use a combination of a FAR, LSTM and mathematical programming to achieve robust high-quality forecasts on real-world data for different types of network nodes. Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s12667-021-00466-4 VL - 13 SP - 383 EP - 408 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Petkovic, Milena A1 - Chen, Ying A1 - Gamrath, Inken A1 - Gotzes, Uwe A1 - Hadjidimitriou, Natalia Selini A1 - Zittel, Janina A1 - Xu, Xiaofei A1 - Koch, Thorsten T1 - A Hybrid Approach for High Precision Prediction of Gas Flows N2 - About 20% of the German energy demand is supplied by natural gas. Ad- ditionally, for about twice the amount Germany serves as a transit country. Thereby, the German network represents a central hub in the European natural gas transport network. The transport infrastructure is operated by so-called transmissions system operators or TSOs. The number one priority of the TSOs is to ensure security of supply. However, the TSOs have no knowledge of the intentions and planned actions of the shippers (traders). Open Grid Europe (OGE), one of Germany’s largest TSO, operates a high- pressure transport network of about 12.000 km length. Since flexibility and security of supply is of utmost importance to the German Energy Transition (“Energiewende”) especially with the introduction of peak-load gas power stations, being able to predict in- and out-flow of the network is of great importance. In this paper we introduce a new hybrid forecast method applied to gas flows at the boundary nodes of a transport network. The new method employs optimized feature minimization and selection. We use a combination of an FAR, LSTM DNN and mathematical programming to achieve robust high quality forecasts on real world data for different types of network nodes. Keywords: Gas Forecast, Time series, Hybrid Method, FAR, LSTM, Mathematical Optimisation T3 - ZIB-Report - 19-26 Y1 - 2019 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:0297-zib-73525 SN - 1438-0064 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Cook, William A1 - Koch, Thorsten A1 - Steffy, Daniel A1 - Wolter, Kati T1 - A Hybrid Branch-and-Bound Approach for Exact Rational Mixed-Integer Programming N2 - We present an exact rational solver for mixed-integer linear programming that avoids the numerical inaccuracies inherent in the floating-point computations used by existing software. This allows the solver to be used for establishing theoretical results and in applications where correct solutions are critical due to legal and financial consequences. Our solver is a hybrid symbolic/numeric implementation of LP-based branch-and-bound, using numerically-safe methods for all binding computations in the search tree. Computing provably accurate solutions by dynamically choosing the fastest of several safe dual bounding methods depending on the structure of the instance, our exact solver is only moderately slower than an inexact floating-point branch-and-bound solver. The software is incorporated into the SCIP optimization framework, using the exact LP solver QSopt_ex and the GMP arithmetic library. Computational results are presented for a suite of test instances taken from the MIPLIB and Mittelmann libraries and for a new collection of numerically difficult instances. T3 - ZIB-Report - 12-49 Y1 - 2012 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:0297-zib-17171 SN - 1438-0064 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Cook, William A1 - Koch, Thorsten A1 - Steffy, Daniel A1 - Wolter, Kati T1 - A hybrid branch-and-bound approach for exact rational mixed-integer programming JF - Mathematical Programming Computation N2 - We present an exact rational solver for mixed-integer linear programming that avoids the numerical inaccuracies inherent in the floating-point computations used by existing software. This allows the solver to be used for establishing theoretical results and in applications where correct solutions are critical due to legal and financial consequences. Our solver is a hybrid symbolic/numeric implementation of LP-based branch-and-bound, using numerically-safe methods for all binding computations in the search tree. Computing provably accurate solutions by dynamically choosing the fastest of several safe dual bounding methods depending on the structure of the instance, our exact solver is only moderately slower than an inexact floating-point branch-and-bound solver. The software is incorporated into the SCIP optimization framework, using the exact LP solver QSopt_ex and the GMP arithmetic library. Computational results are presented for a suite of test instances taken from the MIPLIB and Mittelmann libraries and for a new collection of numerically difficult instances. Y1 - 2013 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s12532-013-0055-6 VL - 5 IS - 3 SP - 305 EP - 344 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Arnold, Thomas A1 - Berthold, Timo A1 - Heinz, Stefan A1 - Vigerske, Stefan A1 - Henrion, René A1 - Grötschel, Martin A1 - Koch, Thorsten A1 - Tischendorf, Caren A1 - Römisch, Werner ED - Deuflhard, Peter ED - Grötschel, Martin ED - Hömberg, Dietmar ED - Horst, Ulrich ED - Kramer, Jürg ED - Mehrmann, Volker ED - Polthier, Konrad ED - Schmidt, Frank ED - Schütte, Christof ED - Skutella, Martin ED - Sprekels, Jürgen T1 - A Jack of all Trades? Solving stochastic mixed-integer nonlinear constraint programs T2 - MATHEON - Mathematics for Key Technologies N2 - Natural gas is one of the most important energy sources in Germany and Europe. In recent years, political regulations have led to a strict separation of gas trading and gas transport, thereby assigning a central role in energy politics to the transportation and distribution of gas. These newly imposed political requirements influenced the technical processes of gas transport in such a way that the complex task of planning and operating gas networks has become even more intricate. Mathematically, the combination of discrete decisions on the configuration of a gas transport network, the nonlinear equations describing the physics of gas, and the uncertainty in demand and supply yield large-scale and highly complex stochastic mixed-integer nonlinear optimization problems. The Matheon project "Optimization of Gas Transport" takes the key role of making available the necessary core technology to solve the mathematical optimization problems which model the topology planning and the operation of gas networks. An important aspect of the academic impact is the free availability of our framework. As a result of several years of research and development, it is now possible to download a complete state-of-the-art framework for mixed-integer linear and nonlinear programming in source code at http://scip.zib.de Y1 - 2014 U6 - https://doi.org/10.4171/137 VL - 1 SP - 135 EP - 146 PB - European Mathematical Society ER - TY - GEN A1 - Arnold, Thomas A1 - Berthold, Timo A1 - Heinz, Stefan A1 - Vigerske, Stefan A1 - Henrion, René A1 - Grötschel, Martin A1 - Koch, Thorsten A1 - Tischendorf, Caren A1 - Römisch, Werner T1 - A Jack of all Trades? Solving stochastic mixed-integer nonlinear constraint programs N2 - Natural gas is one of the most important energy sources in Germany and Europe. In recent years, political regulations have led to a strict separation of gas trading and gas transport, thereby assigning a central role in energy politics to the transportation and distribution of gas. These newly imposed political requirements influenced the technical processes of gas transport in such a way that the complex task of planning and operating gas networks has become even more intricate. Mathematically, the combination of discrete decisions on the configuration of a gas transport network, the nonlinear equations describing the physics of gas, and the uncertainty in demand and supply yield large-scale and highly complex stochastic mixed-integer nonlinear optimization problems. The Matheon project "Optimization of Gas Transport" takes the key role of making available the necessary core technology to solve the mathematical optimization problems which model the topology planning and the operation of gas networks. An important aspect of the academic impact is the free availability of our framework. As a result of several years of research and development, it is now possible to download a complete state-of-the-art framework for mixed-integer linear and nonlinear programming in source code at http://scip.zib.de T3 - ZIB-Report - 14-14 KW - gas transport optimization KW - mixed integer nonlinear programming Y1 - 2014 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:0297-zib-49947 SN - 1438-0064 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Rehfeldt, Daniel A1 - Hobbie, Hannes A1 - Schönheit, David A1 - Gleixner, Ambros A1 - Koch, Thorsten A1 - Möst, Dominik T1 - A massively parallel interior-point solver for linear energy system models with block structure N2 - Linear energy system models are often a crucial component of system design and operations, as well as energy policy consulting. Such models can lead to large-scale linear programs, which can be intractable even for state-of-the-art commercial solvers|already the available memory on a desktop machine might not be sufficient. Against this backdrop, this article introduces an interior-point solver that exploits common structures of linear energy system models to efficiently run in parallel on distributed memory systems. The solver is designed for linear programs with doubly bordered block-diagonal constraint matrix and makes use of a Schur complement based decomposition. Special effort has been put into handling large numbers of linking constraints and variables as commonly observed in energy system models. In order to handle this strong linkage, a distributed preconditioning of the Schur complement is used. In addition, the solver features a number of more generic techniques such as parallel matrix scaling and structure-preserving presolving. The implementation is based on the existing parallel interior-point solver PIPS-IPM. We evaluate the computational performance on energy system models with up to 700 million non-zero entries in the constraint matrix, and with more than 200 million columns and 250 million rows. This article mainly concentrates on the energy system model ELMOD, which is a linear optimization model representing the European electricity markets by the use of a nodal pricing market clearing. It has been widely applied in the literature on energy system analyses during the recent years. However, it will be demonstrated that the new solver is also applicable to other energy system models. T3 - ZIB-Report - 19-41 Y1 - 2019 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:0297-zib-74321 SN - 1438-0064 N1 - In the meantime, this report got published as a journal article: https://opus4.kobv.de/opus4-zib/frontdoor/index/index/searchtype/authorsearch/author/Hannes+Hobbie/docId/8191/start/1/rows/10 Please use this journal reference when citing this work. ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Rehfeldt, Daniel A1 - Hobbie, Hannes A1 - Schönheit, David A1 - Koch, Thorsten A1 - Möst, Dominik A1 - Gleixner, Ambros T1 - A massively parallel interior-point solver for LPs with generalized arrowhead structure, and applications to energy system models JF - European Journal of Operational Research N2 - Linear energy system models are a crucial component of energy system design and operations, as well as energy policy consulting. If detailed enough, such models lead to large-scale linear programs, which can be intractable even for the best state-of-the-art solvers. This article introduces an interior-point solver that exploits common structures of energy system models to efficiently run in parallel on distributed-memory systems. The solver is designed for linear programs with doubly-bordered block-diagonal constraint matrix and makes use of a Schur complement based decomposition. In order to handle the large number of linking constraints and variables commonly observed in energy system models, a distributed Schur complement preconditioner is used. In addition, the solver features a number of more generic techniques such as parallel matrix scaling and structure-preserving presolving. The implementation is based on the solver PIPS-IPM. We evaluate the computational performance on energy system models with up to four billion nonzero entries in the constraint matrix—and up to one billion columns and one billion rows. This article mainly concentrates on the energy system model ELMOD, which is a linear optimization model representing the European electricity markets by the use of a nodal pricing market-clearing. It has been widely applied in the literature on energy system analyses in recent years. However, it will be demonstrated that the new solver is also applicable to other energy system models. Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2021.06.063 VL - 296 IS - 1 SP - 60 EP - 71 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Johnston, Jennifer A1 - Kelley, Richard A1 - Crawford, Thomas A1 - Morton, D. A1 - Agarwala, Richa A1 - Koch, Thorsten A1 - Schäffer, Alejandro A1 - Francomano, Clair A1 - Biesecker, Leslie T1 - A novel nemaline myopathy in the Amish caused by a mutation in troponin T1 JF - American Journal of Human Genetics Y1 - 2000 UR - http://www.journals.uchicago.edu/AJHG/journal/issues/v67n4/002057/002057.html VL - 67 SP - 814 EP - 821 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Koch, Thorsten A1 - Chen, Ying A1 - Lim, Kian Guan A1 - Xu, Xiaofei A1 - Zakiyeva, Nazgul T1 - A review study of functional autoregressive models with application to energy forecasting JF - WIREs Computational Statistics Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1002/wics.1525 N1 - https://ink.library.smu.edu.sg/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=7693&context=lkcsb_research ER -