TY - GEN A1 - Lie, Han Cheng A1 - Sullivan, T. J. A1 - Teckentrup, Aretha T1 - Random forward models and log-likelihoods in Bayesian inverse problems T2 - SIAM/ASA Journal on Uncertainty Quantification N2 - We consider the use of randomised forward models and log-likelihoods within the Bayesian approach to inverse problems. Such random approximations to the exact forward model or log-likelihood arise naturally when a computationally expensive model is approximated using a cheaper stochastic surrogate, as in Gaussian process emulation (kriging), or in the field of probabilistic numerical methods. We show that the Hellinger distance between the exact and approximate Bayesian posteriors is bounded by moments of the difference between the true and approximate log-likelihoods. Example applications of these stability results are given for randomised misfit models in large data applications and the probabilistic solution of ordinary differential equations. T3 - ZIB-Report - 18-03 KW - Bayesian inverse problem KW - random likelihood KW - surrogate model KW - posterior consistency KW - probabilistic numerics KW - uncertainty quantification KW - randomised misfit Y1 - 2018 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:0297-zib-66324 SN - 1438-0064 VL - 6 IS - 4 SP - 1600 EP - 1629 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Lie, Han Cheng A1 - Sullivan, T. J. T1 - Equivalence of weak and strong modes of measures on topological vector spaces JF - Inverse Problems N2 - Modes of a probability measure on an infinite-dimensional Banach space X are often defined by maximising the small-radius limit of the ratio of measures of norm balls. Helin and Burger weakened the definition of such modes by considering only balls with centres in proper subspaces of X, and posed the question of when this restricted notion coincides with the unrestricted one. We generalise these definitions to modes of arbitrary measures on topological vector spaces, defined by arbitrary bounded, convex, neighbourhoods of the origin. We show that a coincident limiting ratios condition is a necessary and sufficient condition for the equivalence of these two types of modes, and show that the coincident limiting ratios condition is satisfied in a wide range of topological vector spaces. Y1 - 2018 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1088/1361-6420/aadef2 VL - 34 IS - 11 SP - 115013 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Lie, Han Cheng A1 - Sullivan, T. J. T1 - Quasi-invariance of countable products of Cauchy measures under non-unitary dilations JF - Electronic Communications in Probability Y1 - 2018 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1214/18-ECP113 VL - 23 IS - 8 SP - 1 EP - 6 ER - TY - CHAP A1 - Teymur, Onur A1 - Lie, Han Cheng A1 - Sullivan, T. J. A1 - Calderhead, Ben T1 - Implicit probabilistic integrators for ODEs T2 - Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 31 (NIPS 2018) Y1 - 2018 UR - http://papers.nips.cc/paper/7955-implicit-probabilistic-integrators-for-odes ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Lie, Han Cheng A1 - Sullivan, T. J. T1 - Erratum: Equivalence of weak and strong modes of measures on topological vector spaces (2018 Inverse Problems 34 115013) JF - Inverse Problems Y1 - 2018 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1088/1361-6420/aae55b VL - 34 IS - 12 SP - 129601 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Nava-Yazdani, Esfandiar A1 - Hege, Hans-Christian A1 - von Tycowicz, Christoph A1 - Sullivan, T. J. T1 - A Shape Trajectories Approach to Longitudinal Statistical Analysis N2 - For Kendall’s shape space we determine analytically Jacobi fields and parallel transport, and compute geodesic regression. Using the derived expressions, we can fully leverage the geometry via Riemannian optimization and reduce the computational expense by several orders of magnitude. The methodology is demonstrated by performing a longitudinal statistical analysis of epidemiological shape data. As application example we have chosen 3D shapes of knee bones, reconstructed from image data of the Osteoarthritis Initiative. Comparing subject groups with incident and developing osteoarthritis versus normal controls, we find clear differences in the temporal development of femur shapes. This paves the way for early prediction of incident knee osteoarthritis, using geometry data only. T3 - ZIB-Report - 18-42 KW - shape space, shape trajectories, geodesic regression, longitudinal analysis, osteoarthritis Y1 - 2018 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:0297-zib-69759 SN - 1438-0064 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Cockayne, Jon A1 - Oates, Chris A1 - Sullivan, T. J. A1 - Girolami, Mark T1 - Bayesian Probabilistic Numerical Methods JF - SIAM Review N2 - Over forty years ago average-case error was proposed in the applied mathematics literature as an alternative criterion with which to assess numerical methods. In contrast to worst-case error, this criterion relies on the construction of a probability measure over candidate numerical tasks, and numerical methods are assessed based on their average performance over those tasks with respect to the measure. This paper goes further and establishes Bayesian probabilistic numerical methods as solutions to certain inverse problems based upon the numerical task within the Bayesian framework. This allows us to establish general conditions under which Bayesian probabilistic numerical methods are well defined, encompassing both the non-linear and non-Gaussian context. For general computation, a numerical approximation scheme is proposed and its asymptotic convergence established. The theoretical development is extended to pipelines of computation, wherein probabilistic numerical methods are composed to solve more challenging numerical tasks. The contribution highlights an important research frontier at the interface of numerical analysis and uncertainty quantification, and a challenging industrial application is presented. Y1 - 2019 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1137/17M1139357 VL - 61 IS - 4 SP - 756 EP - 789 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Lie, Han Cheng A1 - Sullivan, T. J. A1 - Stuart, Andrew T1 - Strong convergence rates of probabilistic integrators for ordinary differential equations JF - Statistics and Computing N2 - Probabilistic integration of a continuous dynamical system is a way of systematically introducing model error, at scales no larger than errors inroduced by standard numerical discretisation, in order to enable thorough exploration of possible responses of the system to inputs. It is thus a potentially useful approach in a number of applications such as forward uncertainty quantification, inverse problems, and data assimilation. We extend the convergence analysis of probabilistic integrators for deterministic ordinary differential equations, as proposed by Conrad et al.\ (\textit{Stat.\ Comput.}, 2016), to establish mean-square convergence in the uniform norm on discrete- or continuous-time solutions under relaxed regularity assumptions on the driving vector fields and their induced flows. Specifically, we show that randomised high-order integrators for globally Lipschitz flows and randomised Euler integrators for dissipative vector fields with polynomially-bounded local Lipschitz constants all have the same mean-square convergence rate as their deterministic counterparts, provided that the variance of the integration noise is not of higher order than the corresponding deterministic integrator. Y1 - 2019 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s11222-019-09898-6 VL - 29 IS - 6 SP - 1265 EP - 1283 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Girolami, Mark A. A1 - Ipsen, Ilse C. F. A1 - Oates, Chris A1 - Owen, Art B. A1 - Sullivan, T. J. T1 - Editorial: Special edition on probabilistic numerics JF - Statistics and Computing Y1 - 2019 U6 - https://doi.org/doi:10.1007/s11222-019-09892-y VL - 29 IS - 6 SP - 1181 EP - 1183 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Sullivan, T. J. T1 - Contributed discussion on the article "A Bayesian conjugate gradient method" JF - Bayesian Analysis N2 - The recent article "A Bayesian conjugate gradient method" by Cockayne, Oates, Ipsen, and Girolami proposes an approximately Bayesian iterative procedure for the solution of a system of linear equations, based on the conjugate gradient method, that gives a sequence of Gaussian/normal estimates for the exact solution. The purpose of the probabilistic enrichment is that the covariance structure is intended to provide a posterior measure of uncertainty or confidence in the solution mean. This note gives some comments on the article, poses some questions, and suggests directions for further research. Y1 - 2019 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1214/19-BA1145 VL - 14 IS - 3 SP - 985 EP - 989 ER -