TY - GEN A1 - Brose, Achim A1 - Fügenschuh, Armin A1 - Gausemeier, Pia A1 - Vierhaus, Ingmar A1 - Seliger, Günther T1 - A System Dynamic Enhancement for the Scenario Technique N2 - The Scenario Technique is a strategic planning method that aims to describe and analyze potential developments of a considered system in the future. Its application consists of several steps, from an initial problem analysis over an influence analysis to projections of key factors and a definition of the scenarios to a final interpretation of the results. The technique itself combines qualitative and quantitative methods and is an enhancement of the standard Scenario Technique. We use the numerical values gathered during the influence analysis, and embed them in a System Dynamics framework. This yields a mathematically rigorous way to achieve predictions of the system‘s future behavior from an initial impulse and the feedback structure of the factors. The outcome of our new method is a further way of projecting the present into the future, which enables the user of the Scenario Technique to obtain a validation of the results achieved by the standard method. T3 - ZIB-Report - 13-24 KW - Scenario Technique; System Dynamics Y1 - 2013 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:0297-zib-18150 UR - http://opus4.kobv.de/opus4-tuberlin/frontdoor/index/index/docId/4026 SN - 1438-0064 ER - TY - CHAP A1 - Brose, Achim A1 - Fügenschuh, Armin A1 - Gausemeier, Pia A1 - Vierhaus, Ingmar A1 - Seliger, Günther T1 - A System Dynamic Enhancement for the Scenario Technique T2 - Proc. 11th Global Conference on Sustainable Manufacturing N2 - The Scenario Technique is a strategic planning method that aims to describe and analyze potential developments of a considered system in the future. Its application consists of several steps, from an initial problem analysis over an influence analysis to projections of key factors and a definition of the scenarios to a final interpretation of the results. The technique itself combines qualitative and quantitative methods and is an enhancement of the standard Scenario Technique. We use the numerical values gathered during the influence analysis, and embed them in a System Dynamics framework. This yields a mathematically rigorous way to achieve predictions of the system‘s future behavior from an initial impulse and the feedback structure of the factors. The outcome of our new method is a further way of projecting the present into the future, which enables the user of the Scenario Technique to obtain a validation of the results achieved by the standard method. Y1 - 2013 SP - 561 EP - 566 PB - Universitätsverlag der TU Berlin CY - Berlin ER - TY - CHAP A1 - Fügenschuh, Armin A1 - Gausemeier, Pia A1 - Seliger, Günther A1 - Severengiz, Semih ED - Dangelmaier, W. T1 - Scenario Technique with Integer Programming for Sustainability in Manufacturing T2 - 8th International Heinz Nixdorf Symposium, Changing Paradigms Y1 - 2010 SP - 320 EP - 331 ER - TY - CHAP A1 - Gausemeier, Pia A1 - Seliger, Günther A1 - Schenker, Sebastian A1 - Borndörfer, Ralf T1 - Nachhaltige Technologiepfade für unterschiedliche Entwicklungsniveaus mithilfe mehrkriterieller Entscheidungsfindung T2 - Vorausschau und Technologieplanung Y1 - 2014 SN - 978-3-942647-53-3 VL - 334 SP - 65 EP - 94 ER -