TY - GEN A1 - Petkovic, Milena A1 - Zakiyeva, Nazgul T1 - Mathematical Optimization for Analyzing and Forecasting Nonlinear Network Time Series N2 - This work presents an innovative short to mid-term forecasting model that analyzes nonlinear complex spatial and temporal dynamics in energy networks under demand and supply balance constraints using Network Nonlinear Time Series (TS) and Mathematical Programming (MP) approach. We address three challenges simultaneously, namely, the adjacency matrix is unknown; the total amount in the network has to be balanced; dependence is unnecessarily linear. We use a nonparametric approach to handle the nonlinearity and estimate the adjacency matrix under the sparsity assumption. The estimation is conducted with the Mathematical Optimisation method. We illustrate the accuracy and effectiveness of the model on the example of the natural gas transmission network of one of the largest transmission system operators (TSOs) in Germany, Open Grid Europe. The obtained results show that, especially for shorter forecasting horizons, the proposed method outperforms all considered benchmark models, improving the average nMAPE for 5.1% and average RMSE for 79.6% compared to the second-best model. The model is capable of capturing the nonlinear dependencies in the complex spatial-temporal network dynamics and benefits from both sparsity assumption and the demand and supply balance constraint. T3 - ZIB-Report - 22-19 KW - nonlinear time series KW - mathematical optimization KW - energy networks Y1 - 2022 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:0297-zib-88037 SN - 1438-0064 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Petkovic, Milena A1 - Zakiyeva, Nazgul T1 - Mathematical Optimization for Analyzing and Forecasting Nonlinear Network Time Series JF - Operations Research Proceedings 2022 N2 - This work presents an innovative short to mid-term forecasting model that analyzes nonlinear complex spatial and temporal dynamics in energy networks under demand and supply balance constraints using Network Nonlinear Time Series (TS) and Mathematical Programming (MP) approach. We address three challenges simultaneously, namely, the adjacency matrix is unknown; the total amount in the network has to be balanced; dependence is unnecessarily linear. We use a nonparametric approach to handle the nonlinearity and estimate the adjacency matrix under the sparsity assumption. The estimation is conducted with the Mathematical Optimisation method. We illustrate the accuracy and effectiveness of the model on the example of the natural gas transmission network of one of the largest transmission system operators (TSOs) in Germany, Open Grid Europe. The obtained results show that, especially for shorter forecasting horizons, proposed method outperforms all considered benchmark models, improving the avarage nMAPE for 5.1% and average RMSE for 79.6% compared to the second-best model. The model is capable to capture the nonlinear dependencies in the complex spatial-temporal network dynamics and benefits from both sparsity assumption and the demand and supply balance constraint. Y1 - 2022 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Dell’Amico, M. A1 - Hadjidimitriou, Natalia Selini A1 - Koch, Thorsten A1 - Petkovic, Milena T1 - Forecasting Natural Gas Flows in Large Networks JF - Machine Learning, Optimization, and Big Data. MOD 2017. N2 - Natural gas is the cleanest fossil fuel since it emits the lowest amount of other remains after being burned. Over the years, natural gas usage has increased significantly. Accurate forecasting is crucial for maintaining gas supplies, transportation and network stability. This paper presents two methodologies to identify the optimal configuration o parameters of a Neural Network (NN) to forecast the next 24 h of gas flow for each node of a large gas network. In particular the first one applies a Design Of Experiments (DOE) to obtain a quick initial solution. An orthogonal design, consisting of 18 experiments selected among a total of 4.374 combinations of seven parameters (training algorithm, transfer function, regularization, learning rate, lags, and epochs), is used. The best result is selected as initial solution of an extended experiment for which the Simulated Annealing is run to find the optimal design among 89.100 possible combinations of parameters. The second technique is based on the application of Genetic Algorithm for the selection of the optimal parameters of a recurrent neural network for time series forecast. GA was applied with binary representation of potential solutions, where subsets of bits in the bit string represent different values for several parameters of the recurrent neural network. We tested these methods on three municipal nodes, using one year and half of hourly gas flow to train the network and 60 days for testing. Our results clearly show that the presented methodologies bring promising results in terms of optimal configuration of parameters and forecast error. Y1 - 2018 U6 - https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-72926-8_14 VL - Lecture Notes in Computer Science IS - vol 10710 SP - 158 EP - 171 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Zittel, Janina A1 - Petkovic, Milena A1 - Einck, Mathias T1 - Forecasting Hourly Gas Flows JF - Foresight - The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Y1 - 2025 UR - https://econpapers.repec.org/RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2025:i:79:p:40-44 VL - 79 SP - 40 EP - 44 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Hadjidimitriou, Natalia Selini A1 - Koch, Thorsten A1 - Lippi, Marco A1 - Petkovic, Milena A1 - Mamei, Marco T1 - Spatial analysis of COVID-19 and the Russia–Ukraine war impacts on natural gas flows using statistical and machine learning models JF - World Wide Web Y1 - 2026 U6 - https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1007/s11280-025-01402-7 SN - 1386-145X VL - 29 IS - 2 PB - Springer Science and Business Media LLC ER -