TY - JOUR A1 - Fackeldey, Konstantin A1 - Koltai, Peter A1 - Nevir, Peter A1 - Rust, Henning A1 - Schild, Axel A1 - Weber, Marcus T1 - From metastable to coherent sets - Time-discretization schemes JF - Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science N2 - In this article, we show that these well-established spectral algorithms (like PCCA+, Perron Cluster Cluster Analysis) also identify coherent sets of non-autonomous dynamical systems. For the identification of coherent sets, one has to compute a discretization (a matrix T) of the transfer operator of the process using a space-time-discretization scheme. The article gives an overview about different time-discretization schemes and shows their applicability in two different fields of application. Y1 - 2019 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1063/1.5058128 VL - 29 SP - 012101 EP - 012101 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Fackeldey, Konstantin A1 - Koltai, Péter A1 - Névir, Peter A1 - Rust, Henning A1 - Schild, Axel A1 - Weber, Marcus T1 - From Metastable to Coherent Sets - time-discretization schemes N2 - Given a time-dependent stochastic process with trajectories x(t) in a space $\Omega$, there may be sets such that the corresponding trajectories only very rarely cross the boundaries of these sets. We can analyze such a process in terms of metastability or coherence. Metastable sets M are defined in space $M\subset\Omega$, coherent sets $M(t)\subset\Omega$ are defined in space and time. Hence, if we extend the space by the time-variable t, coherent sets are metastable sets in $\Omega\times[0,\infty]$. This relation can be exploited, because there already exist spectral algorithms for the identification of metastable sets. In this article we show that these well-established spectral algorithms (like PCCA+) also identify coherent sets of non-autonomous dynamical systems. For the identification of coherent sets, one has to compute a discretization (a matrix T) of the transfer operator of the process using a space-timediscretization scheme. The article gives an overview about different time-discretization schemes and shows their applicability in two different fields of application. T3 - ZIB-Report - 17-74 Y1 - 2017 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:0297-zib-66074 SN - 1438-0064 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - von Lindheim, Johannes A1 - Harikrishnan, Abhishek A1 - Dörffel, Tom A1 - Klein, Rupert A1 - Koltai, Peter A1 - Mikula, Natalia A1 - Müller, Annette A1 - Névir, Peter A1 - Pacey, George A1 - Polzin, Robert A1 - Vercauteren, Nikki T1 - Definition, detection and tracking of persistent structures in atmospheric flows JF - arXiv N2 - Long-lived flow patterns in the atmosphere such as weather fronts, mid-latitude blockings or tropical cyclones often induce extreme weather conditions. As a consequence, their description, detection, and tracking has received increasing attention in recent years. Similar objectives also arise in diverse fields such as turbulence and combustion research, image analysis, and medical diagnostics under the headlines of "feature tracking", "coherent structure detection" or "image registration" - to name just a few. A host of different approaches to addressing the underlying, often very similar, tasks have been developed and successfully used. Here, several typical examples of such approaches are summarized, further developed and applied to meteorological data sets. Common abstract operational steps form the basis for a unifying framework for the specification of "persistent structures" involving the definition of the physical state of a system, the features of interest, and means of measuring their persistence. Y1 - 2021 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Koltai, Péter A1 - Schütte, Christof T1 - A multiscale perturbation expansion approach for Markov state modeling of non-stationary molecular dynamics JF - SIAM J. Multiscale Model. Simul. N2 - We investigate metastable dynamical systems subject to non-stationary forcing as they appear in molecular dynamics for systems driven by external fields. We show, that if the strength of the forcing is inversely proportional to the length of the slow metastable time scales of the unforced system, then the effective behavior of the forced system on slow time scales can be described by a low-dimensional reduced master equation. Our construction is explicit and uses the multiscale perturbation expansion method called two-timing, or method of multiple scales. The reduced master equation—a Markov state model—can be assembled by constructing two equilibrium Markov state models; one for the unforced system, and one for a slightly perturbed one. Y1 - 2018 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1137/17M1146403 VL - 16 IS - 4 SP - 1455 EP - 1485 PB - SIAM ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Helfmann, Luzie A1 - Ribera Borrell, Enric A1 - Schütte, Christof A1 - Koltai, Peter T1 - Extending Transition Path Theory: Periodically Driven and Finite-Time Dynamics JF - Journal of Nonlinear Science Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1007/s00332-020-09652-7 VL - 30 SP - 3321 EP - 3366 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Koltai, Péter A1 - Lie, Han Cheng A1 - Plonka, Martin T1 - Fréchet differentiable drift dependence of Perron–Frobenius and Koopman operators for non-deterministic dynamics JF - Nonlinearity N2 - We prove the Fréchet differentiability with respect to the drift of Perron–Frobenius and Koopman operators associated to time-inhomogeneous ordinary stochastic differential equations. This result relies on a similar differentiability result for pathwise expectations of path functionals of the solution of the stochastic differential equation, which we establish using Girsanov's formula. We demonstrate the significance of our result in the context of dynamical systems and operator theory, by proving continuously differentiable drift dependence of the simple eigen- and singular values and the corresponding eigen- and singular functions of the stochastic Perron–Frobenius and Koopman operators. Y1 - 2019 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1088/1361-6544/ab1f2a VL - 32 IS - 11 SP - 4232 EP - 4257 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Miron, Philippe A1 - Beron-Vera, Francisco A1 - Helfmann, Luzie A1 - Koltai, Péter T1 - Transition paths of marine debris and the stability of the garbage patches JF - Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science N2 - We used transition path theory (TPT) to infer "reactive" pathways of floating marine debris trajectories. The TPT analysis was applied on a pollution-aware time-homogeneous Markov chain model constructed from trajectories produced by satellite-tracked undrogued buoys from the NOAA Global Drifter Program. The latter involved coping with the openness of the system in physical space, which further required an adaptation of the standard TPT setting. Directly connecting pollution sources along coastlines with garbage patches of varied strengths, the unveiled reactive pollution routes represent alternative targets for ocean cleanup efforts. Among our specific findings we highlight: constraining a highly probable pollution source for the Great Pacific Garbage Patch; characterizing the weakness of the Indian Ocean gyre as a trap for plastic waste; and unveiling a tendency of the subtropical gyres to export garbage toward the coastlines rather than to other gyres in the event of anomalously intense winds. Y1 - 2021 U6 - https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0030535 VL - 31 IS - 3 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Wulkow, Niklas A1 - Koltai, Péter A1 - Schütte, Christof T1 - Memory-Based Reduced Modelling and Data-Based Estimation of Opinion Spreading JF - Journal of Nonlinear Science N2 - We investigate opinion dynamics based on an agent-based model and are interested in predicting the evolution of the percentages of the entire agent population that share an opinion. Since these opinion percentages can be seen as an aggregated observation of the full system state, the individual opinions of each agent, we view this in the framework of the Mori–Zwanzig projection formalism. More specifically, we show how to estimate a nonlinear autoregressive model (NAR) with memory from data given by a time series of opinion percentages, and discuss its prediction capacities for various specific topologies of the agent interaction network. We demonstrate that the inclusion of memory terms significantly improves the prediction quality on examples with different network topologies. Y1 - 2021 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s00332-020-09673-2 VL - 31 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Bittracher, Andreas A1 - Koltai, Péter A1 - Klus, Stefan A1 - Banisch, Ralf A1 - Dellnitz, Michael A1 - Schütte, Christof T1 - Transition manifolds of complex metastable systems: Theory and data-driven computation of effective dynamics JF - Jounal of Nonlinear Science N2 - We consider complex dynamical systems showing metastable behavior but no local separation of fast and slow time scales. The article raises the question of whether such systems exhibit a low-dimensional manifold supporting its effective dynamics. For answering this question, we aim at finding nonlinear coordinates, called reaction coordinates, such that the projection of the dynamics onto these coordinates preserves the dominant time scales of the dynamics. We show that, based on a specific reducibility property, the existence of good low-dimensional reaction coordinates preserving the dominant time scales is guaranteed. Based on this theoretical framework, we develop and test a novel numerical approach for computing good reaction coordinates. The proposed algorithmic approach is fully local and thus not prone to the curse of dimension with respect to the state space of the dynamics. Hence, it is a promising method for data-based model reduction of complex dynamical systems such as molecular dynamics. Y1 - 2018 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s00332-017-9415-0 VL - 28 IS - 2 SP - 471 EP - 512 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Koltai, Peter A1 - Wu, Hao A1 - Noé, Frank A1 - Schütte, Christof T1 - Optimal data-driven estimation of generalized Markov state models for non-equilibrium dynamics JF - Computation Y1 - 2018 U6 - https://doi.org/10.3390/computation6010022 VL - 6 IS - 1 PB - MDPI CY - Basel, Switzerland ER -