TY - JOUR A1 - Djurdjevac Conrad, Natasa A1 - Weber, Marcus A1 - Schütte, Christof T1 - Finding dominant structures of nonreversible Markov processes JF - Multiscale Modeling and Simulation Y1 - 2016 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1137/15M1032272 VL - 14 IS - 4 SP - 1319 EP - 1340 ER - TY - THES A1 - Djurdjevac Conrad, Natasa T1 - Methods for analyzing complex networks using random walker Y1 - 2012 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Banisch, Ralf A1 - Djurdjevac Conrad, Natasa T1 - Cycle-flow-based module detection in directed recurrence networks JF - EPL (Europhysics Letters) Y1 - 2014 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1209/0295-5075/108/68008 VL - 108 IS - 6 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Lorenz, Philipp A1 - Wolf, Frederik A1 - Braun, Jonas A1 - Djurdjevac Conrad, Natasa A1 - Hövel, Philipp T1 - Capturing the Dynamics of Hashtag-Communities JF - International Workshop on Complex Networks and their Applications Y1 - 2017 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-72150-7_33 SP - 401 EP - 413 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Zonker, Johannes A1 - Padilla-Iglesias, Cecilia A1 - Djurdjevac Conrad, Natasa T1 - Supplementary code and data for Royal Society Open Science Manuscript rsos.230495 N2 - In this repository are all files necessary to run the agent-based model of the paper "Insights into drivers of mobility and cultural dynamics of African hunter–gatherers over the past 120 000 years", Royal Society Open Science, 10(11), 2023. Y1 - 2023 U6 - https://doi.org/10.12752/9254 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Helfmann, Luzie A1 - Djurdjevac Conrad, Natasa A1 - Lorenz-Spreen, Philipp A1 - Schütte, Christof T1 - Supplementary code for the paper Modelling opinion dynamics under the impact of influencer and media strategies N2 - This repository contains the Julia code accompanying the paper "Modelling opinion dynamics under the impact of influencer and media strategies", Scientific Reports, Vol.13, p. 19375, 2023. Y1 - 2023 U6 - https://doi.org/10.12752/9267 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Trower, Maia A1 - Djurdjevac Conrad, Natasa A1 - Klus, Stefan T1 - Clustering Time-Evolving Networks Using the Spatiotemporal Graph Laplacian JF - Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science N2 - Time-evolving graphs arise frequently when modeling complex dynamical systems such as social networks, traffic flow, and biological processes. Developing techniques to identify and analyze communities in these time-varying graph structures is an important challenge. In this work, we generalize existing spectral clustering algorithms from static to dynamic graphs using canonical correlation analysis (CCA) to capture the temporal evolution of clusters. Based on this extended canonical correlation framework, we define the spatio-temporal graph Laplacian and investigate its spectral properties. We connect these concepts to dynamical systems theory via transfer operators, and illustrate the advantages of our method on benchmark graphs by comparison with existing methods. We show that the spatio-temporal graph Laplacian allows for a clear interpretation of cluster structure evolution over time for directed and undirected graphs. Y1 - 2025 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0228419 VL - 35 SP - 013126 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Klus, Stefan A1 - Djurdjevac Conrad, Natasa T1 - Dynamical systems and complex networks: A Koopman operator perspective JF - Journal of Physics: Complexity N2 - The Koopman operator has entered and transformed many research areas over the last years. Although the underlying concept–representing highly nonlinear dynamical systems by infinite-dimensional linear operators–has been known for a long time, the availability of large data sets and efficient machine learning algorithms for estimating the Koopman operator from data make this framework extremely powerful and popular. Koopman operator theory allows us to gain insights into the characteristic global properties of a system without requiring detailed mathematical models. We will show how these methods can also be used to analyze complex networks and highlight relationships between Koopman operators and graph Laplacians. Y1 - 2024 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1088/2632-072X/ad9e60 VL - 5 IS - 4 SP - 041001 PB - IOP Publishing ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Djurdjevac Conrad, Natasa A1 - Quang Vu, Nhu A1 - Nagel, Soeren T1 - Co-evolving networks for opinion and social dynamics in agent-based models JF - Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science N2 - The rise of digital social media has strengthened the coevolution of public opinions and social interactions, that shape social structures and collective outcomes in increasingly complex ways. Existing literature often explores this interplay as a one-directional influence, focusing on how opinions determine social ties within adaptive networks. However, this perspective overlooks the intrinsic dynamics driving social interactions, which can significantly influence how opinions form and evolve. In this work, we address this gap, by introducing the co-evolving opinion and social dynamics using stochastic agent-based models. Agents' mobility in a social space is governed by both their social and opinion similarity with others. Similarly, the dynamics of opinion formation is driven by the opinions of agents in their social vicinity. We analyze the underlying social and opinion interaction networks and explore the mechanisms influencing the appearance of emerging phenomena, like echo chambers and opinion consensus. To illustrate the model's potential for real-world analysis, we apply it to General Social Survey data on political identity and public opinion regarding governmental issues. Our findings highlight the model's strength in capturing the coevolution of social connections and individual opinions over time. Y1 - 2024 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0226054 SN - 1054-1500 VL - 34 IS - 9 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Djurdjevac Conrad, Natasa A1 - Tonello, Elisa A1 - Zonker, Johannes A1 - Siebert, Heike T1 - Detection of dynamic communities in temporal networks with sparse data JF - Applied Network Science N2 - Temporal networks are a powerful tool for studying the dynamic nature of a wide range of real-world complex systems, including social, biological and physical systems. In particular, detection of dynamic communities within these networks can help identify important cohesive structures and fundamental mechanisms driving systems behaviour. However, when working with real-world systems, available data is often limited and sparse, due to missing data on systems entities, their evolution and interactions, as well as uncertainty regarding temporal resolution. This can hinder accurate representation of the system over time and result in incomplete or biased community dynamics. In this paper, we compare established methods for community detection and, using synthetic data experiments and real-world case studies, we evaluate the impact of data sparsity on the quality of identified dynamic communities. Our results give valuable insights on the evolution of systems with sparse data, which are less studied in existing literature, but are frequently encountered in real-world applications. Y1 - 2025 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s41109-024-00687-3 VL - 10 PB - Springer International Publishing ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Kostré, Margarita A1 - Djurdjevac Conrad, Natasa A1 - Schütte, Christof A1 - Sunkara, Vikram T1 - Exploration of Particle Swarm Optimisation Algorithm with Divergent Parameters JF - Natural Computing Y1 - 2024 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Niemann, Jan-Hendrik A1 - Klus, Stefan A1 - Conrad, Natasa Djurdjevac A1 - Schütte, Christof T1 - Koopman-Based Surrogate Models for Multi-Objective Optimization of Agent-Based Systems JF - Physica D: Nonlinear Phenomena N2 - Agent-based models (ABMs) provide an intuitive and powerful framework for studying social dynamics by modeling the interactions of individuals from the perspective of each individual. In addition to simulating and forecasting the dynamics of ABMs, the demand to solve optimization problems to support, for example, decision-making processes naturally arises. Most ABMs, however, are non-deterministic, high-dimensional dynamical systems, so objectives defined in terms of their behavior are computationally expensive. In particular, if the number of agents is large, evaluating the objective functions often becomes prohibitively time-consuming. We consider data-driven reduced models based on the Koopman generator to enable the efficient solution of multi-objective optimization problems involving ABMs. In a first step, we show how to obtain data-driven reduced models of non-deterministic dynamical systems (such as ABMs) that depend on potentially nonlinear control inputs. We then use them in the second step as surrogate models to solve multi-objective optimal control problems. We first illustrate our approach using the example of a voter model, where we compute optimal controls to steer the agents to a predetermined majority, and then using the example of an epidemic ABM, where we compute optimal containment strategies in a prototypical situation. We demonstrate that the surrogate models effectively approximate the Pareto-optimal points of the ABM dynamics by comparing the surrogate-based results with test points, where the objectives are evaluated using the ABM. Our results show that when objectives are defined by the dynamic behavior of ABMs, data-driven surrogate models support or even enable the solution of multi-objective optimization problems. Y1 - 2024 U6 - https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.physd.2024.134052 VL - 460 SP - 134052 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Zonker, Johannes A1 - Padilla-Iglesias, Cecilia A1 - Djurdjevac Conrad, Natasa T1 - Insights into drivers of mobility and cultural dynamics of African hunter-gatherers over the past 120 000 years JF - Royal Society Open Science N2 - Humans have a unique capacity to innovate, transmit and rely on complex, cumulative culture for survival. While an important body of work has attempted to explore the role of changes in the size and interconnectedness of populations in determining the persistence, diversity and complexity of material culture, results have achieved limited success in explaining the emergence and spatial distribution of cumulative culture over our evolutionary trajectory. Here, we develop a spatio-temporally explicit agent-based model to explore the role of environmentally driven changes in the population dynamics of hunter–gatherer communities in allowing the development, transmission and accumulation of complex culture. By modelling separately demography- and mobility-driven changes in interaction networks, we can assess the extent to which cultural change is driven by different types of population dynamics. We create and validate our model using empirical data from Central Africa spanning 120 000 years. We find that populations would have been able to maintain diverse and elaborate cultural repertoires despite abrupt environmental changes and demographic collapses by preventing isolation through mobility. However, we also reveal that the function of cultural features was also an essential determinant of the effects of environmental or demographic changes on their dynamics. Our work can therefore offer important insights into the role of a foraging lifestyle on the evolution of cumulative culture. Y1 - 2023 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1098/rsos.230495 VL - 10 IS - 11 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Djurdjevac Conrad, Natasa A1 - Chemnitz, Robin A1 - Kostre, Margarita A1 - Schweigart, Fleur A1 - Fless, Friederike A1 - Schütte, Christof A1 - Ducke, Benjamin T1 - A Mathematical perspective on Romanisation: Modelling the Roman road activation process in ancient Tunisia JF - PLoS ONE N2 - Romanisation is a multi-faceted historical phenomenon with profound and lasting cultural impact on the ancient world. In the modern-day territory of Tunisia, this is particularly manifest during the first four centuries AD, under the reign of the Roman Empire. We derive a reduced, operational concept of Romanisation as a cultural diffusion process that is observable in the archaeological remains of the Roman era settlement system. We then introduce a novel mathematical model that computes spatio-temporal approximations for the Romanisation of the settlement system. The model is based on the concept of temporal road activation and makes minimal assumptions regarding input data quality. The results of our study contribute to the understanding of the time dynamics of the region’s road network, under the influence of Romanisation. Our model can be applied in similar archaeological research scenarios, to generate spatio-temporal backbones for the analysis of otherwise intractably complex social processes. Y1 - 2024 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0309752 VL - 19 IS - 9 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Winkelmann, Stefanie A1 - Zonker, Johannes A1 - Schütte, Christof A1 - Djurdjevac Conrad, Natasa T1 - Mathematical modeling of spatio-temporal population dynamics and application to epidemic spreading JF - Mathematical Biosciences N2 - Agent based models (ABMs) are a useful tool for modeling spatio-temporal population dynamics, where many details can be included in the model description. Their computational cost though is very high and for stochastic ABMs a lot of individual simulations are required to sample quantities of interest. Especially, large numbers of agents render the sampling infeasible. Model reduction to a metapopulation model leads to a significant gain in computational efficiency, while preserving important dynamical properties. Based on a precise mathematical description of spatio-temporal ABMs, we present two different metapopulation approaches (stochastic and piecewise deterministic) and discuss the approximation steps between the different models within this framework. Especially, we show how the stochastic metapopulation model results from a Galerkin projection of the underlying ABM onto a finite-dimensional ansatz space. Finally, we utilize our modeling framework to provide a conceptual model for the spreading of COVID-19 that can be scaled to real-world scenarios. Y1 - 2021 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.mbs.2021.108619 VL - 336 PB - Elsevier ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Helfmann, Luzie A1 - Conrad, Natasa Djurdjevac A1 - Lorenz-Spreen, Philipp A1 - Schütte, Christof T1 - Modelling opinion dynamics under the impact of influencer and media strategies JF - Scientific Reports N2 - Digital communication has made the public discourse considerably more complex, and new actors and strategies have emerged as a result of this seismic shift. Aside from the often-studied interactions among individuals during opinion formation, which have been facilitated on a large scale by social media platforms, the changing role of traditional media and the emerging role of "influencers" are not well understood, and the implications of their engagement strategies arising from the incentive structure of the attention economy even less so. Here we propose a novel opinion dynamics model that accounts for these different roles, namely that media and influencers change their own positions on slower time scales than individuals, while influencers dynamically gain and lose followers. Numerical simulations show the importance of their relative influence in creating qualitatively different opinion formation dynamics: with influencers, fragmented but short-lived clusters emerge, which are then counteracted by more stable media positions. Mean-field approximations by partial differential equations reproduce this dynamic. Based on the mean-field model, we study how strategies of influencers to gain more followers can influence the overall opinion distribution. We show that moving towards extreme positions can be a beneficial strategy for influencers to gain followers. Finally, we demonstrate that optimal control strategies allow other influencers or media to counteract such attempts and prevent further fragmentation of the opinion landscape. Our modelling framework contributes to better understanding the different roles and strategies in the increasingly complex information ecosystem and their impact on public opinion formation. Y1 - 2023 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-46187-9 VL - 13 SP - 19375 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Niemann, Jan-Hendrik A1 - Uram, Samuel A1 - Wolf, Sarah A1 - Conrad, Natasa Djurdjevac A1 - Weiser, Martin T1 - Multilevel Optimization for Policy Design with Agent-Based Epidemic Models JF - Computational Science N2 - Epidemiological models can not only be used to forecast the course of a pandemic like COVID-19, but also to propose and design non-pharmaceutical interventions such as school and work closing. In general, the design of optimal policies leads to nonlinear optimization problems that can be solved by numerical algorithms. Epidemiological models come in different complexities, ranging from systems of simple ordinary differential equations (ODEs) to complex agent-based models (ABMs). The former allow a fast and straightforward optimization, but are limited in accuracy, detail, and parameterization, while the latter can resolve spreading processes in detail, but are extremely expensive to optimize. We consider policy optimization in a prototypical situation modeled as both ODE and ABM, review numerical optimization approaches, and propose a heterogeneous multilevel approach based on combining a fine-resolution ABM and a coarse ODE model. Numerical experiments, in particular with respect to convergence speed, are given for illustrative examples. Y1 - 2024 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jocs.2024.102242 VL - 77 SP - 102242 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Kostré, Margarita A1 - Sunkara, Vikram A1 - Schütte, Christof A1 - Djurdjevac Conrad, Natasa T1 - Understanding the Romanization Spreading on Historical Interregional Networks in Northern Tunisia JF - Applied Network Science N2 - Spreading processes are important drivers of change in social systems. To understand the mechanisms of spreading it is fundamental to have information about the underlying contact network and the dynamical parameters of the process. However, in many real-wold examples, this information is not known and needs to be inferred from data. State-of-the-art spreading inference methods have mostly been applied to modern social systems, as they rely on availability of very detailed data. In this paper we study the inference challenges for historical spreading processes, for which only very fragmented information is available. To cope with this problem, we extend existing network models by formulating a model on a mesoscale with temporal spreading rate. Furthermore, we formulate the respective parameter inference problem for the extended model. We apply our approach to the romanization process of Northern Tunisia, a scarce dataset, and study properties of the inferred time-evolving interregional networks. As a result, we show that (1) optimal solutions consist of very different network structures and spreading rate functions; and that (2) these diverse solutions produce very similar spreading patterns. Finally, we discuss how inferred dominant interregional connections are related to available archaeological traces. Historical networks resulting from our approach can help understanding complex processes of cultural change in ancient times. KW - mesoscale spreading process KW - network inference KW - time-evolving network KW - romanization spreading KW - scarce data Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s41109-022-00492-w VL - 7 PB - Springer Nature ER - TY - CHAP A1 - Kostre, Margarita A1 - Sunkara, Vikram A1 - Djurdjevac Conrad, Natasa T1 - Inference of historical influence networks T2 - International Conference on Complex Networks & Their Applications Proceedings N2 - We study the romanization process of northern Africa from 50 BC till 300 AD. Our goal is to infer the communication strength between different subregions, based on the evolution of the status of cities. Herefore, we use the general inverse infection model, that infers the weights of a known underlying network, given observations of the spreading on this network. As infection process we choose the SI metapopulation model, where I stands for a city with a Roman status. To solve the minimization problem we use the particle swarm optimization algorithm with a specific choice of parameters. Y1 - 2021 U6 - https://doi.org/10.12752/8558 SP - 110 EP - 113 ET - International Conference on Complex Networks & Their Applications ER - TY - GEN A1 - Kostré, Margarita A1 - Sunkara, Vikram A1 - Schütte, Christof A1 - Djurdjevac Conrad, Nataša T1 - Understanding the Romanization Spreading on Historical Interregional Networks in Northern Tunisia N2 - Spreading processes are important drivers of change in social systems. To understand the mechanisms of spreading it is fundamental to have information about the underlying contact network and the dynamical parameters of the process. However, in many real-wold examples, this information is not known and needs to be inferred from data. State-of-the-art spreading inference methods have mostly been applied to modern social systems, as they rely on availability of very detailed data. In this paper we study the inference challenges for historical spreading processes, for which only very fragmented information is available. To cope with this problem, we extend existing network models by formulating a model on a mesoscale with temporal spreading rate. Furthermore, we formulate the respective parameter inference problem for the extended model. We apply our approach to the romanization process of Northern Tunisia, a scarce dataset, and study properties of the inferred time-evolving interregional networks. As a result, we show that (1) optimal solutions consist of very different network structures and spreading rate functions; and that (2) these diverse solutions produce very similar spreading patterns. Finally, we discuss how inferred dominant interregional connections are related to available archaeological traces. Historical networks resulting from our approach can help understanding complex processes of cultural change in ancient times. T3 - ZIB-Report - 22-10 KW - mesoscale spreading process, network inference, time-evolving network, romanization spreading, scarce data Y1 - 2022 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:0297-zib-86764 SN - 1438-0064 ER -