TY - JOUR A1 - Rössig, Ansgar A1 - Petkovic, Milena T1 - Advances in Verification of ReLU Neural Networks JF - Journal of Global Optimization N2 - We consider the problem of verifying linear properties of neural networks. Despite their success in many classification and prediction tasks, neural networks may return unexpected results for certain inputs. This is highly problematic with respect to the application of neural networks for safety-critical tasks, e.g. in autonomous driving. We provide an overview of algorithmic approaches that aim to provide formal guarantees on the behavior of neural networks. Moreover, we present new theoretical results with respect to the approximation of ReLU neural networks. On the other hand, we implement a solver for verification of ReLU neural networks which combines mixed integer programming (MIP) with specialized branching and approximation techniques. To evaluate its performance, we conduct an extensive computational study. For that we use test instances based on the ACAS Xu System and the MNIST handwritten digit data set. Our solver is publicly available and able to solve the verification problem for instances which do not have independent bounds for each input neuron. Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s10898-020-00949-1 PB - Springer ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Petkovic, Milena A1 - Chen, Ying A1 - Gamrath, Inken A1 - Gotzes, Uwe A1 - Hadjidimitrou, Natalia Selini A1 - Zittel, Janina A1 - Xu, Xiaofei A1 - Koch, Thorsten T1 - A hybrid approach for high precision prediction of gas flows JF - Energy Systems N2 - About 23% of the German energy demand is supplied by natural gas. Additionally, for about the same amount Germany serves as a transit country. Thereby, the German network represents a central hub in the European natural gas transport network. The transport infrastructure is operated by transmissions system operators (TSOs). The number one priority of the TSOs is to ensure the security of supply. However, the TSOs have only very limited knowledge about the intentions and planned actions of the shippers (traders). Open Grid Europe (OGE), one of Germany’s largest TSO, operates a high-pressure transport network of about 12,000 km length. With the introduction of peak-load gas power stations, it is of great importance to predict in- and out-flow of the network to ensure the necessary flexibility and security of supply for the German Energy Transition (“Energiewende”). In this paper, we introduce a novel hybrid forecast method applied to gas flows at the boundary nodes of a transport network. This method employs an optimized feature selection and minimization. We use a combination of a FAR, LSTM and mathematical programming to achieve robust high-quality forecasts on real-world data for different types of network nodes. Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s12667-021-00466-4 VL - 13 SP - 383 EP - 408 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Petkovic, Milena A1 - Zakiyeva, Nazgul T1 - Mathematical Optimization for Analyzing and Forecasting Nonlinear Network Time Series JF - Operations Research Proceedings 2022 N2 - This work presents an innovative short to mid-term forecasting model that analyzes nonlinear complex spatial and temporal dynamics in energy networks under demand and supply balance constraints using Network Nonlinear Time Series (TS) and Mathematical Programming (MP) approach. We address three challenges simultaneously, namely, the adjacency matrix is unknown; the total amount in the network has to be balanced; dependence is unnecessarily linear. We use a nonparametric approach to handle the nonlinearity and estimate the adjacency matrix under the sparsity assumption. The estimation is conducted with the Mathematical Optimisation method. We illustrate the accuracy and effectiveness of the model on the example of the natural gas transmission network of one of the largest transmission system operators (TSOs) in Germany, Open Grid Europe. The obtained results show that, especially for shorter forecasting horizons, proposed method outperforms all considered benchmark models, improving the avarage nMAPE for 5.1% and average RMSE for 79.6% compared to the second-best model. The model is capable to capture the nonlinear dependencies in the complex spatial-temporal network dynamics and benefits from both sparsity assumption and the demand and supply balance constraint. Y1 - 2022 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Hennings, Felix A1 - Petkovic, Milena A1 - Streubel, Tom T1 - On the Numerical Treatment of Interlaced Target Values - Modeling, Optimization and Simulation of Regulating Valves in Gas Networks JF - Optimization and Engineering N2 - Due to the current and foreseeable shifts towards carbon dioxide neutral energy production, which will likely result in balancing fluctuating renewable energy generation by transforming power-to-gas-to-power as well as building a large-scale hydrogen transport infrastructure, the trading and transport operations of gas will become more dynamic, volatile, and hence also less predictable. Therefore, computer-aided support in terms of rapid simulation and control optimization will further broaden its importance for gas network dispatching. In this paper, we aim to contribute and openly publish two new mathematical models for regulators, also referred to as control valves, which together with compressors make up the most complex and involved types of active elements in gas network infrastructures. They provide direct control over gas networks but are in turn controlled via target values, also known as set-point values, themselves. Our models incorporate up to six dynamical target values to define desired transient states for the elements' local vicinity within the network. That is, each pair of every two target values defines a bounding box for the inlet pressure, outlet pressure as well as the passing mass flow of gas. In the proposed models, those target values are prioritized differently and are constantly in competition with each other, which can only be resolved dynamically at run-time of either a simulation or optimization process. Besides careful derivation, we compare simulation and optimization results with predictions of the widely adopted commercial simulation tool SIMONE, serving as our substitute for actual real-world transport operations. Y1 - 2023 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s11081-023-09812-0 PB - Springer Nature ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Le, Thi Thai A1 - Petkovic, Milena T1 - Predicting Fluid Interface Instability in Energy Systems for Sustainable Energy Transition JF - Operations Research Proceedings N2 - Due to the coexistence of different gases in underground storage, this work explores the interface stability's impact on energy storage, specifically during the injection and withdrawal of gases such as hydrogen and natural gas. A new approach of combing simulation and time series analysis is used to accurately predict instability modes in energy systems. Our simulation is based on the 2D Euler equations, solved using a second-order finite volume method with a staggered grid. The solution is validated by comparing them to experimental data and analytical solutions, accurately predicting the instability's behavior. We use time series analysis and state-of-the-art regime-switching methods to identify critical features of the interface dynamics, providing crucial insights into system optimization and design. Y1 - 2023 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Petkovic, Milena A1 - Koch, Thorsten A1 - Zittel, Janina T1 - Deep learning for spatio-temporal supply anddemand forecasting in natural gas transmission networks JF - Energy Science and Engineering N2 - Germany is the largest market for natural gas in the European Union, with an annual consumption of approx. 95 billion cubic meters. Germany's high-pressure gas pipeline network is roughly 40,000 km long, which enables highly fluctuating quantities of gas to be transported safely over long distances. Considering that similar amounts of gas are also transshipped through Germany to other EU states, it is clear that Germany's gas transport system is essential to the European energy supply. Since the average velocity of gas in a pipeline is only 25km/h, an adequate high-precision, high-frequency forecasting of supply and demand is crucial for efficient control and operation of such a transmission network. We propose a deep learning model based on spatio-temporal convolutional neural networks (DLST) to tackle the problem of gas flow forecasting in a complex high-pressure transmission network. Experiments show that our model effectively captures comprehensive spatio-temporal correlations through modeling gas networks and consistently outperforms state-of-the-art benchmarks on real-world data sets by at least 21%. The results demonstrate that the proposed model can deal with complex nonlinear gas network flow forecasting with high accuracy and effectiveness. Y1 - 2021 U6 - https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1002/ese3.932 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Zakiyeva, Nazgul A1 - Petkovic, Milena T1 - High-dimensional high-frequency time series prediction with a mixed integer optimisation method JF - Operations Research Proceedings N2 - We study a functional autoregressive model for high-frequency time series. We approach the estimation of the proposed model using a Mixed Integer Optimisation method. The proposed model captures serial dependence in the functional time series by including high-dimensional curves. We illustrate our methodology on large-scale natural gas network data. Our model provides more accurate day-ahead hourly out-of-sample forecast of the gas in and out-flows compared to alternative prediction models. Y1 - 2023 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:0297-zib-93068 SN - 1438-0064 ER -