TY - JOUR A1 - Sherratt, Katharine A1 - Srivastava, Ajitesh A1 - Ainslie, Kylie A1 - Singh, David E. A1 - Cublier, Aymar A1 - Marinescu, Maria Cristina A1 - Carretero, Jesus A1 - Garcia, Alberto Cascajo A1 - Franco, Nicolas A1 - Willem, Lander A1 - Abrams, Steven A1 - Faes, Christel A1 - Beutels, Philippe A1 - Hens, Niel A1 - Müller, Sebastian A1 - Charlton, Billy A1 - Ewert, Ricardo A1 - Paltra, Sydney A1 - Rakow, Christian A1 - Rehmann, Jakob A1 - Conrad, Tim A1 - Schütte, Christof A1 - Nagel, Kai A1 - Abbott, Sam A1 - Grah, Rok A1 - Niehus, Rene A1 - Prasse, Bastian A1 - Sandmann, Frank A1 - Funk, Sebastian T1 - Characterising information gains and losses when collecting multiple epidemic model outputs JF - Epidemics N2 - Collaborative comparisons and combinations of epidemic models are used as policy-relevant evidence during epidemic outbreaks. In the process of collecting multiple model projections, such collaborations may gain or lose relevant information. Typically, modellers contribute a probabilistic summary at each time-step. We compared this to directly collecting simulated trajectories. We aimed to explore information on key epidemic quantities; ensemble uncertainty; and performance against data, investigating potential to continuously gain information from a single cross-sectional collection of model results. Methods We compared July 2022 projections from the European COVID-19 Scenario Modelling Hub. Five modelling teams projected incidence in Belgium, the Netherlands, and Spain. We compared projections by incidence, peaks, and cumulative totals. We created a probabilistic ensemble drawn from all trajectories, and compared to ensembles from a median across each model’s quantiles, or a linear opinion pool. We measured the predictive accuracy of individual trajectories against observations, using this in a weighted ensemble. We repeated this sequentially against increasing weeks of observed data. We evaluated these ensembles to reflect performance with varying observed data. Results. By collecting modelled trajectories, we showed policy-relevant epidemic characteristics. Trajectories contained a right-skewed distribution well represented by an ensemble of trajectories or a linear opinion pool, but not models’ quantile intervals. Ensembles weighted by performance typically retained the range of plausible incidence over time, and in some cases narrowed this by excluding some epidemic shapes. Conclusions. We observed several information gains from collecting modelled trajectories rather than quantile distributions, including potential for continuously updated information from a single model collection. The value of information gains and losses may vary with each collaborative effort’s aims, depending on the needs of projection users. Understanding the differing information potential of methods to collect model projections can support the accuracy, sustainability, and communication of collaborative infectious disease modelling efforts. Data availability All code and data available on Github: https://github.com/covid19-forecast-hub-europe/aggregation-info-loss KW - Virology KW - Infectious Diseases KW - Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health KW - Microbiology KW - Parasitology KW - Epidemiology Y1 - 2024 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epidem.2024.100765 SN - 1755-4365 VL - 47 PB - Elsevier BV ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Martin, Alex A1 - Müller, J. A1 - Pape, S. A1 - Peter, A. A1 - Pokutta, Sebastian A1 - Winter, T. T1 - Pricing and clearing combinatorial markets with singleton and swap orders JF - Mathematical Methods of Operations Research Y1 - 2017 VL - 85 IS - 2 SP - 155 EP - 177 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Martin, Alexander A1 - Müller, J. A1 - Pokutta, Sebastian T1 - Strict linear prices in non-convex European day-ahead electricity markets JF - Optimization Methods and Software Y1 - 2014 UR - http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1660528 N1 - Additional Note: 10.1080/10556788.2013.823544 N1 - URL of the PDF: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/10556788.2013.823544 VL - 29 IS - 1 SP - 189 EP - 221 ER - TY - CHAP A1 - Gesing, Sandra A1 - Grunzke, Richard A1 - Balasko, Akos A1 - Birkenheuer, Georg A1 - Blunk, Dirk A1 - Breuers, Sebastian A1 - Brinkmann, André A1 - Fels, Gregor A1 - Herres-Pawlis, Sonja A1 - Kacsuk, Peter A1 - Kozlovszky, Miklos A1 - Krüger, Jens A1 - Packschies, Lars A1 - Schäfer, Patrick A1 - Schuller, Bernd A1 - Schuster, Johannes A1 - Steinke, Thomas A1 - Szikszay Fabri, Anna A1 - Wewior, Martin A1 - Müller-Pfefferkorn, Ralph A1 - Kohlbacher, Oliver T1 - Granular Security for a Science Gateway in Structural Bioinformatics T2 - Proc. IWSG-Life 2011 Y1 - 2011 ER - TY - CHAP A1 - Birkenheuer, Georg A1 - Blunk, Dirk A1 - Breuers, Sebastian A1 - Brinkmann, Andre A1 - Fels, Gregor A1 - Gesing, Sandra A1 - Grunzke, Richard A1 - Herres-Pawlis, Sonja A1 - Kohlbacher, Oliver A1 - Krüger, Jens A1 - Lang, Ulrich A1 - Packschies, Lars A1 - Müller-Pfefferkorn, Ralph A1 - Schäfer, Patrick A1 - Schuster, Johannes A1 - Steinke, Thomas A1 - Warzecha, Klaus Dieter A1 - Wewior, Martin T1 - MoSGrid: Progress of Workflow driven Chemical Simulations T2 - Proc. of Grid Workflow Workshop 2011, Cologne, Germany Y1 - 2011 UR - http://CEUR-WS.org/Vol-826/paper02.pdf VL - 826 PB - CEUR Workshop Proceedings ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Birkenheuer, Georg A1 - Blunk, Dirk A1 - Breuers, Sebastian A1 - Brinkmann, Andre A1 - dos Santos Vieira, Ines A1 - Fels, Gregor A1 - Gesing, Sandra A1 - Grunzke, Richard A1 - Herres-Pawlis, Sonja A1 - Kohlbacher, Oliver A1 - Krüger, Jens A1 - Lang, Ulrich A1 - Packschies, Lars A1 - Müller-Pfefferkorn, Ralph A1 - Schäfer, Patrick A1 - Schmalz, Hans-Günther A1 - Steinke, Thomas A1 - Warzecha, Klaus Dieter A1 - Wewior, Martin T1 - A Molecular Simulation Grid as new tool for Computational Chemistry, Biology and Material Science JF - Journal of Cheminformatics 2011 Y1 - 2011 UR - http://www.jcheminf.com/content/3/S1/P14 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1186/1758-2946-3-S1-P14 VL - 3 IS - Suppl 1 ER - TY - CHAP A1 - Gesing, Sandra A1 - Kacsuk, Peter A1 - Kozlovszky, Miklos A1 - Birkenheuer, Georg A1 - Blunk, Dirk A1 - Breuers, Sebastian A1 - Brinkmann, Andre A1 - Fels, Gregor A1 - Grunzke, Richard A1 - Herres-Pawlis, Sonja A1 - Krüger, Jens A1 - Packschies, Lars A1 - Müller-Pfefferkorn, Ralph A1 - Schäfer, Patrick A1 - Steinke, Thomas A1 - Szikszay Fabri, Anna A1 - Warzecha, Klaus Dieter A1 - Wewior, Martin A1 - Kohlbacher, Oliver T1 - A Science Gateway for Molecular Simulations T2 - EGI (European Grid Infrastructure) User Forum 2011, Book of Abstracts Y1 - 2011 SP - 94 EP - 95 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Birkenheuer, Georg A1 - Blunk, Dirk A1 - Breuers, Sebastian A1 - Brinkmann, André A1 - dos Santos Vieira, Ines A1 - Fels, Gregor A1 - Gesing, Sandra A1 - Grunzke, Richard A1 - Herres-Pawlis, Sonja A1 - Kohlbacher, Oliver A1 - Krüger, Jens A1 - Lang, Ulrich A1 - Packschies, Lars A1 - Müller-Pfefferkorn, Ralph A1 - Schäfer, Patrick A1 - Steinke, Thomas A1 - Warzecha, Klaus Dieter A1 - Wewior, Martin T1 - MoSGrid: efficient data management and a standardized data exchange format for molecular simulations in a grid environment JF - Journal of Cheminformatics Y1 - 2012 UR - http://www.jcheminf.com/content/4/S1/P21 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1186/1758-2946-4-S1-P21 VL - 4 IS - Suppl 1 SP - 21 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Gesing, Sandra A1 - Grunzke, Richard A1 - Krüger, Jens A1 - Birkenheuer, Georg A1 - Wewior, Martin A1 - Schäfer, Patrick A1 - Schuller, Bernd A1 - Schuster, Johannes A1 - Herres-Pawlis, Sonja A1 - Breuers, Sebastian A1 - Balasko, Akos A1 - Kozlovszky, Miklos A1 - Szikszay Fabri, Anna A1 - Packschies, Lars A1 - Kacsuk, Peter A1 - Blunk, Dirk A1 - Steinke, Thomas A1 - Brinkmann, André A1 - Fels, Gregor A1 - Müller-Pfefferkorn, Ralph A1 - Jäkel, René A1 - Kohlbacher, Oliver T1 - A Single Sign-On Infrastructure for Science Gateways on a Use Case for Structural Bioinformatics JF - Journal of Grid Computing Y1 - 2012 ER - TY - CHAP A1 - Grunzke, Richard A1 - Birkenheuer, Georg A1 - Blunk, Dirk A1 - Breuers, Sebastian A1 - Brinkmann, André A1 - Gesing, Sandra A1 - Herres-Pawlis, Sonja A1 - Kohlbacher, Oliver A1 - Krüger, Jens A1 - Kruse, Martin A1 - Müller-Pfefferkorn, Ralph A1 - Schäfer, Patrick A1 - Schuller, Bernd A1 - Steinke, Thomas A1 - Zink, Andreas T1 - A Data Driven Science Gateway for Computational Workflows T2 - Proceedings of the UNICORE Summit Y1 - 2012 CY - Dresden, Germany ER - TY - CHAP A1 - Martin, Alexander A1 - Müller, J. A1 - Pokutta, Sebastian T1 - On clearing coupled day-ahead electricity markets T2 - Proceedings of 23rd Australasian Finance and Banking Conference Y1 - 2010 UR - http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1660528 N1 - Additional Note: doi:10.1080/10556788.2013.823544 ER -