TY - JOUR A1 - Kadow, Christopher A1 - Illing, Sebastian A1 - Kunst, Oliver A1 - Rust, Henning A1 - Pohlmann, Holger A1 - Müller, Wolfgang A. A1 - Cubasch, Ulrich T1 - Evaluation of forecasts by accuracy and spread in the MiKlip decadal climate prediction system JF - Meteorologische Zeitschrift N2 - We present the evaluation of temperature and precipitation forecasts obtained with the MiKlip decadal climate prediction system. These decadal hindcast experiments are verified with respect to the accuracy of the ensemble mean and the ensemble spread as a representative for the forecast uncertainty. The skill assessment follows the verification framework already used by the decadal prediction community, but enhanced with additional evaluation techniques like the logarithmic ensemble spread score. The core of the MiKlip system is the coupled Max Planck Institute Earth System Model. An ensemble of 10 members is initialized annually with ocean and atmosphere reanalyses of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. For assessing the effect of the initialization, we compare these predictions to uninitialized climate projections with the same model system. Initialization improves the accuracy of temperature and precipitation forecasts in year 1, particularly in the Pacific region. The ensemble spread well represents the forecast uncertainty in lead year 1, except in the tropics. This estimate of prediction skill creates confidence in the respective 2014 forecasts, which depict less precipitation in the tropics and a warming almost everywhere. However, large cooling patterns appear in the Northern Hemisphere, the Pacific South America and the Southern Ocean. Forecasts for 2015 to 2022 show even warmer temperatures than for 2014, especially over the continents. The evaluation of lead years 2 to 9 for temperature shows skill globally with the exception of the eastern Pacific. The ensemble spread can again be used as an estimate of the forecast uncertainty in many regions: It improves over the tropics compared to lead year 1. Due to a reduction of the conditional bias, the decadal predictions of the initialized system gain skill in the accuracy compared to the uninitialized simulations in the lead years 2 to 9. Furthermore, we show that increasing the ensemble size improves the MiKlip decadal climate prediction system for all lead years. Y1 - 2016 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1127/metz/2015/0639 VL - 25 IS - 6 SP - 631 EP - 643 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Martin, Alex A1 - Müller, J. A1 - Pape, S. A1 - Peter, A. A1 - Pokutta, Sebastian A1 - Winter, T. T1 - Pricing and clearing combinatorial markets with singleton and swap orders JF - Mathematical Methods of Operations Research Y1 - 2017 VL - 85 IS - 2 SP - 155 EP - 177 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Wulkow, Hanna A1 - Conrad, Tim A1 - Djurdjevac Conrad, Natasa A1 - Müller, Sebastian A. A1 - Nagel, Kai A1 - Schütte, Christof T1 - Prediction of Covid-19 spreading and optimal coordination of counter-measures: From microscopic to macroscopic models to Pareto fronts JF - PLOS One Y1 - 2021 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0249676 VL - 16 IS - 4 PB - Public Library of Science ER -