TY - GEN A1 - Petkovic, Milena A1 - Koch, Thorsten A1 - Zittel, Janina T1 - Deep learning for spatio-temporal supply and demand forecasting in natural gas transmission networks N2 - Germany is the largest market for natural gas in the European Union, with an annual consumption of approx. 95 billion cubic meters. Germany's high-pressure gas pipeline network is roughly 40,000 km long, which enables highly fluctuating quantities of gas to be transported safely over long distances. Considering that similar amounts of gas are also transshipped through Germany to other EU states, it is clear that Germany's gas transport system is essential to the European energy supply. Since the average velocity of gas in a pipeline is only 25km/h, an adequate high-precision, high-frequency forecasting of supply and demand is crucial for efficient control and operation of such a transmission network. We propose a deep learning model based on spatio-temporal convolutional neural networks (DLST) to tackle the problem of gas flow forecasting in a complex high-pressure transmission network. Experiments show that our model effectively captures comprehensive spatio-temporal correlations through modeling gas networks and consistently outperforms state-of-the-art benchmarks on real-world data sets by at least 21$\%$. The results demonstrate that the proposed model can deal with complex nonlinear gas network flow forecasting with high accuracy and effectiveness. T3 - ZIB-Report - 21-01 Y1 - 2021 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:0297-zib-81221 SN - 1438-0064 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Hoppmann-Baum, Kai A1 - Hennings, Felix A1 - Zittel, Janina A1 - Gotzes, Uwe A1 - Spreckelsen, Eva-Maria A1 - Spreckelsen, Klaus A1 - Koch, Thorsten T1 - An Optimization Approach for the Transient Control of Hydrogen Transport Networks JF - Mathematical Methods of Operations Research Y1 - 2021 IS - Special Issue on Energy Networks ER - TY - GEN A1 - Hoppmann-Baum, Kai A1 - Hennings, Felix A1 - Zittel, Janina A1 - Gotzes, Uwe A1 - Spreckelsen, Eva-Maria A1 - Spreckelsen, Klaus A1 - Koch, Thorsten T1 - From Natural Gas towards Hydrogen - A Feasibility Study on Current Transport Network Infrastructure and its Technical Control N2 - This study examines the usability of a real-world, large-scale natural gas transport infrastructure for hydrogen transport. We investigate whether a converted network can transport the amounts of hydrogen necessary to satisfy current energy demands. After introducing an optimization model for the robust transient control of hydrogen networks, we conduct computational experiments based on real-world demand scenarios. Using a representative network, we demonstrate that replacing each turbo compressor unit by four parallel hydrogen compressors, each of them comprising multiple serial compression stages, and imposing stricter rules regarding the balancing of in- and outflow suffices to realize transport in a majority of scenarios. However, due to the reduced linepack there is an increased need for technical and non-technical measures leading to a more dynamic network control. Furthermore, the amount of energy needed for compression increases by 364% on average. T3 - ZIB-Report - 20-27 KW - Hydrogen Transport KW - Hydrogen Infrastructure KW - Network Flows KW - Mixed Integer Programming KW - Energiewende Y1 - 2020 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:0297-zib-79901 SN - 1438-0064 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Yueksel-Erguen, Inci A1 - Zittel, Janina A1 - Wang, Ying A1 - Hennings, Felix A1 - Koch, Thorsten T1 - Lessons learned from gas network data preprocessing N2 - The German high-pressure natural gas transport network consists of thousands of interconnected elements spread over more than 120,000 km of pipelines built during the last 100 years. During the last decade, we have spent many person-years to extract consistent data out of the available sources, both public and private. Based on two case studies, we present some of the challenges we encountered. Preparing consistent, high-quality data is surprisingly hard, and the effort necessary can hardly be overestimated. Thus, it is particularly important to decide which strategy regarding data curation to adopt. Which precision of the data is necessary? When is it more efficient to work with data that is just sufficiently correct on average? In the case studies we describe our experiences and the strategies we adopted to deal with the obstacles and to minimize future effort. Finally, we would like to emphasize that well-compiled data sets, publicly available for research purposes, provide the grounds for building innovative algorithmic solutions to the challenges of the future. T3 - ZIB-Report - 20-13 Y1 - 2020 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:0297-zib-78262 SN - 1438-0064 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Yueksel-Erguen, Inci A1 - Most, Dieter A1 - Wyrwoll, Lothar A1 - Schmitt, Carlo A1 - Zittel, Janina T1 - Modeling the transition of the multimodal pan-European energy system including an integrated analysis of electricity and gas transport N2 - The European energy system has been through a fundamental transformation since the Paris Agreement to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The transition involves several energy-generating and consuming sectors emphasizing sector coupling. The increase in the share of renewable energy sources has revealed the need for flexibility in the electri city grid. Thus, holistic planning of pathways towards decarbonized energy systems also involves assessing the gas infrastructure to provide such a flexibility and support for the security of supply. In this paper, we propose a workflow to investigate such optimal energy transition pathways considering sector coupling. This workflow involves an integrated operational analysis of the electricity market, its transmission grid, and the gas grid in high spatio-temporal resolution. In a case study on a pan-European scale between 2020-2050, we show that carbon neutrality can be reached within feasible additional costs and in time. However, the manifestation of the potential pathways strongly depends on political and technological constraints. Sector coupling acts as an enabler of cross-border cooperation to achieve both, decarbonization and security of supply. T3 - ZIB-Report - 22-17 Y1 - 2022 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:0297-zib-87774 SN - 1438-0064 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Clarner, Jan-Patrick A1 - Tawfik, Christine A1 - Koch, Thorsten A1 - Zittel, Janina T1 - Network-induced Unit Commitment - A model class for investment and production portfolio planning for multi-energy systems N2 - In light of the energy transition production planning of future decarbonized energy systems lead to very large and complex optimization problems. A widely used modeling paradigm for modeling and solving such problems is mathematical programming. While there are various scientific energy system models and modeling tools, most of them do not provide the necessary level of detail or the modeling flexibility to be applicable for industrial usage. Industrial modeling tools, on the other hand, provide a high level of detail and modeling flexibility. However, those models often exhibit a size and complexity that restricts their scope to a time horizon of several months, severely complicating long-term planning. As a remedy, we propose a model class that is detailed enough for real-world usage but still compact enough for long-term planning. The model class is based on a generalized unit commitment problem on a network with investment decisions. The focus lies on the topological dependency of different energy production and transportation units. T3 - ZIB-Report - 22-16 KW - Multi-energy systems KW - Unit commitment KW - Investment planning Y1 - 2022 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:0297-zib-87607 SN - 1438-0064 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Hennings, Felix A1 - Hoppmann-Baum, Kai A1 - Zittel, Janina T1 - Optimizing transient gas network control for challenging real-world instances using MIP-based heuristics N2 - Optimizing the transient control of gas networks is a highly challenging task. The corresponding model incorporates the combinatorial complexity of determining the settings for the many active elements as well as the non-linear and non-convex nature of the physical and technical principles of gas transport. In this paper, we present the latest improvements of our ongoing work to solve this problem for real-world, large-scale problem instances: By adjusting our mixed-integer non-linear programming model regarding the gas compression capabilities in the network, we reflect the technical limits of the underlying units more accurately while maintaining a similar overall model size. In addition, we introduce a new algorithmic approach that is based on splitting the complexity of the problem by first finding assignments for discrete variables and then determining the continuous variables as locally optimal solution of the corresponding non-linear program. For the first task, we design multiple different heuristics based on concepts for general time-expanded optimization problems that find solutions by solving a sequence of sub-problems defined on reduced time horizons. To demonstrate the competitiveness of our approach, we test our algorithm on particularly challenging historic demand scenarios. The results show that high-quality solutions are obtained reliably within short solving times, making the algorithm well-suited to be applied at the core of time-critical industrial applications. T3 - ZIB-Report - 22-08 Y1 - 2022 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:0297-zib-86842 SN - 1438-0064 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Pedersen, Jaap A1 - Le, Thi Thai A1 - Koch, Thorsten A1 - Zittel, Janina T1 - Optimal discrete pipe sizing for tree-shaped CO2 networks N2 - While energy-intensive industries like the steel industry plan to switch to renewable energy sources, other industries, such as the cement industry, have to rely on carbon capture storage and utilization technologies to reduce the inevitable carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions of their production processes. In this context, we investigate the problem of finding optimal pipeline diameters from a discrete set of diameters for a tree-shaped network transporting captured CO2 from multiple sources to a single sink. The general problem of optimizing arc capacities in potential-based fluid networks is a challenging mixed-integer nonlinear program. Additionally, the behaviour of CO2 is highly sensitive and nonlinear regarding temperature and pressure changes. We propose an iterative algorithm splitting the problem into two parts: a) the pipe-sizing problem under a fixed supply scenario and temperature distribution and b) the thermophysical modelling including mixing effects, the Joule-Thomson effect, and heat exchange with the surrounding environment. We show the effectiveness of our approach by applying our algorithm to a real-world network planning problem for a CO2 network in Western Germany. T3 - ZIB-Report - 22-15 KW - CO2 Transport KW - Network Design KW - Pipeline Sizing Y1 - 2022 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:0297-zib-87574 SN - 1438-0064 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Charousset-Brignol, Sandrine A1 - van Ackooij, Wim A1 - Oudjane, Nadia A1 - Daniel, Dominique A1 - Noceir, Slimane A1 - Haus, Utz-Uwe A1 - Lazzaro, Alfio A1 - Frangioni, Antonio A1 - Lobato, Rafael A1 - Ghezelsoflu, Ali A1 - Iardella, Niccolò A1 - Galli, Laura A1 - Gorgone, Enrico A1 - dell’Amico, Mauro A1 - Giannelos, Spyros A1 - Moreira, Alex A1 - Strbac, Goran A1 - Borozan, Stefan A1 - Falugi, Paula A1 - Pudjianto, Danny A1 - Wyrwoll, Lothar A1 - Schmitt, Carlo A1 - Franken, Marco A1 - Beulertz, Daniel A1 - Schwaeppe, Henrik A1 - Most, Dieter A1 - Yüksel-Ergün, Inci A1 - Zittel, Janina A1 - Koch, Thorsten T1 - Synergistic approach of multi-energy models for a European optimal energy system management tool T2 - The Project Repository Journal Y1 - 2021 VL - 9 SP - 113 EP - 116 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Lindner, Niels A1 - Mehl, Lukas A1 - Bartoszuk, Karolina A1 - Berendes, Sarah A1 - Zittel, Janina T1 - Demand Uncertainty in Energy Systems: Scenario Catalogs vs. Integrated Robust Optimization N2 - Designing efficient energy systems is indispensable for shaping a more sustainable society. This involves making infrastructure investment decisions that must be valid for a long-term time horizon. While energy system optimization models constitute a powerful technique to support planning decisions, they need to cope with inherent uncertainty. For example, predicting future demand on a scale of decades is not only an intricate challenge in itself, but small fluctuations in such a forecast might also largely impact the layout of a complex energy system. In this paper, we compare two methodologies of capturing demand uncertainty for linear-programming based energy system optimization models. On one hand, we generate and analyze catalogs of varying demand scenarios, where each individual scenario is considered independently, so that the optimization produces scenario-specific investment pathways. On the other hand, we make use of robust linear programming to meet the demand of all scenarios at once. Since including a multitude of scenarios increases the size and complexity of the optimization model, we will show how to use warm-starting approaches to accelerate the computation process, by exploiting the similar structure of the linear program across different demand inputs. This allows to integrate a meaningful number of demand scenarios with fully-fledged energy system models. We demonstrate the practical use of our methods in a case study of the Berlin-Brandenburg area in Germany, a region that contains both a metropolitan area and its rural surroundings. As a backbone, we use the open-source framework oemof to create a sector-coupled optimization model for planning an energy system with up to 100% reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. This model features a fine-grained temporal resolution of one hour for the full year 2050. We consider uncertainty in demand for electricity, hydrogen, natural gas, central, and decentral heat. Based on our computations, we analyze the trade-offs in terms of quality and computation time for scenario catalogs and the robust optimization approach. We further demonstrate that our procedure provides a valuable strategy for decision makers to gain insight on the robustness and sensitivity of solutions regarding demand variability. T3 - ZIB-Report - 25-19 Y1 - 2025 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:0297-zib-102404 SN - 1438-0064 ER - TY - CHAP A1 - Lindner, Niels A1 - Mehl, Lukas A1 - Bartoszuk, Karolina A1 - Berendes, Sarah A1 - Zittel, Janina T1 - Demand Uncertainty in Energy Systems: Scenario Catalogs vs. Integrated Robust Optimization T2 - Proceedings of the 38th International Conference on Efficiency, Cost, Optimization, Simulation and Environmental Impact of Energy Systems N2 - Designing efficient energy systems is indispensable for shaping a more sustainable society. This involves making infrastructure investment decisions that must be valid for a long-term time horizon. While energy system optimization models constitute a powerful technique to support planning decisions, they need to cope with inherent uncertainty. For example, predicting future demand on a scale of decades is not only an intricate challenge in itself, but small fluctuations in such a forecast might also largely impact the layout of a complex energy system. In this paper, we compare two methodologies of capturing demand uncertainty for linear-programming based energy system optimization models. On one hand, we generate and analyze catalogs of varying demand scenarios, where each individual scenario is considered independently, so that the optimization produces scenario-specific investment pathways. On the other hand, we make use of robust linear programming to meet the demand of all scenarios at once. Since including a multitude of scenarios increases the size and complexity of the optimization model, we will show how to use warm-starting approaches to accelerate the computation process, by exploiting the similar structure of the linear program across different demand inputs. This allows to integrate a meaningful number of demand scenarios with fully-fledged energy system models. We demonstrate the practical use of our methods in a case study of the Berlin-Brandenburg area in Germany, a region that contains both a metropolitan area and its rural surroundings. As a backbone, we use the open-source framework oemof to create a sector-coupled optimization model for planning an energy system with up to 100% reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. This model features a fine-grained temporal resolution of one hour for the full year 2050. We consider uncertainty in demand for electricity, hydrogen, natural gas, central, and decentral heat. Based on our computations, we analyze the trade-offs in terms of quality and computation time for scenario catalogs and the robust optimization approach. We further demonstrate that our procedure provides a valuable strategy for decision makers to gain insight on the robustness and sensitivity of solutions regarding demand variability. Y1 - 2025 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Zittel, Janina A1 - Petkovic, Milena A1 - Einck, Mathias T1 - Forecasting Hourly Gas Flows JF - Foresight - The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Y1 - 2025 UR - https://econpapers.repec.org/RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2025:i:79:p:40-44 VL - 79 SP - 40 EP - 44 ER -