TY - JOUR A1 - Hoppmann-Baum, Kai A1 - Hennings, Felix A1 - Zittel, Janina A1 - Gotzes, Uwe A1 - Spreckelsen, Eva-Maria A1 - Spreckelsen, Klaus A1 - Koch, Thorsten T1 - An Optimization Approach for the Transient Control of Hydrogen Transport Networks JF - Mathematical Methods of Operations Research Y1 - 2021 IS - Special Issue on Energy Networks ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Petkovic, Milena A1 - Chen, Ying A1 - Gamrath, Inken A1 - Gotzes, Uwe A1 - Hadjidimitrou, Natalia Selini A1 - Zittel, Janina A1 - Xu, Xiaofei A1 - Koch, Thorsten T1 - A hybrid approach for high precision prediction of gas flows JF - Energy Systems N2 - About 23% of the German energy demand is supplied by natural gas. Additionally, for about the same amount Germany serves as a transit country. Thereby, the German network represents a central hub in the European natural gas transport network. The transport infrastructure is operated by transmissions system operators (TSOs). The number one priority of the TSOs is to ensure the security of supply. However, the TSOs have only very limited knowledge about the intentions and planned actions of the shippers (traders). Open Grid Europe (OGE), one of Germany’s largest TSO, operates a high-pressure transport network of about 12,000 km length. With the introduction of peak-load gas power stations, it is of great importance to predict in- and out-flow of the network to ensure the necessary flexibility and security of supply for the German Energy Transition (“Energiewende”). In this paper, we introduce a novel hybrid forecast method applied to gas flows at the boundary nodes of a transport network. This method employs an optimized feature selection and minimization. We use a combination of a FAR, LSTM and mathematical programming to achieve robust high-quality forecasts on real-world data for different types of network nodes. Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s12667-021-00466-4 VL - 13 SP - 383 EP - 408 ER - TY - CHAP A1 - Petkovic, Milena A1 - Zakiyeva, Nazgul A1 - Zittel, Janina T1 - Statistical Analysis and Modeling for Detecting Regime Changes in Gas Nomination Time Series T2 - Operations Research Proceedings 2021. OR 2021 N2 - As a result of the legislation for gas markets introduced by the European Union in 2005, separate independent companies have to conduct the transport and trading of natural gas. The current gas market of Germany, which has a market value of more than 54 billion USD, consists of Transmission System Operators (TSO), network users, and traders. Traders can nominate a certain amount of gas anytime and anywhere in the network. Such unrestricted access for the traders, on the other hand, increase the uncertainty in the gas supply management. Some customers’ behaviors may cause abrupt structural changes in gas flow time series. In particular, it is a challenging task for the TSO operators to predict gas nominations 6 to 10 h-ahead. In our study, we aim to investigate the regime changes in time series of nominations to predict the 6 to 10 h-ahead of gas nominations. Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-08623-6_29 SP - 188 EP - 193 PB - Springer, Cham ER - TY - CHAP A1 - Pedersen, Jaap A1 - Hoppmann-Baum, Kai A1 - Zittel, Janina A1 - Koch, Thorsten T1 - Blending hydrogen into natural gas: An assessment of the capacity of the German gas grid T2 - Operations Research Proceedings 2021 N2 - In the transition towards a pure hydrogen infrastructure, repurposing the existing natural gas infrastructure is considered. In this study, the maximal technically feasible injection of hydrogen into the existing German natural gas transmission network is analysed with respect to regulatory limits regarding the gas quality. We propose a transient tracking model based on the general pooling problem including linepack. The analysis is conducted using real-world hourly gas flow data on a network of about 10,000 km length. Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-08623-6_28 SP - 182 EP - 187 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Pedersen, Jaap A1 - Spreckelsen, Klaus A1 - Gotzes, Uwe A1 - Zittel, Janina A1 - Koch, Thorsten T1 - Beimischung von Wasserstoff zum Erdgas: Eine Kapazitätsstudie des deutschen Gasnetzes T1 - Blending hydrogen into natural gas: An assessment of the capacity of the German gas grid JF - gwf Gas + Energie N2 - Die europaische Gasinfrastruktur wird disruptiv in ein zukunftiges dekarbonisiertes Energiesystem verändert; ein Prozess, der angesichts der jüngsten politischen Situation beschleunigt werden muss. Mit einem wachsenden Wasserstoffmarkt wird der pipelinebasierte Transport unter Nutzung der bestehenden Erdgasinfrastruktur wirtschaftlich sinnvoll, trägt zur Erhöhung der öffentlichen Akzeptanz bei und beschleunigt den Umstellungsprozess. In diesem Beitrag wird die maximal technisch machbare Einspeisung von Wasserstoff in das bestehende deutsche Erdgastransportnetz hinsichtlich regulatorischer Grenzwerte der Gasqualität analysiert. Die Analyse erfolgt auf Basis eines transienten Tracking-Modells, das auf dem allgemeinen Pooling-Problem einschließlich Linepack aufbaut. Es zeigt sich, dass das Gasnetz auch bei strengen Grenzwerten gen ̈ugend Kapazität bietet, um für einen großen Teil der bis 2030 geplanten Erzeugungskapazität für grünen Wasserstoff als garantierter Abnehmer zu dienen. N2 - The European gas infrastructure is being disruptively transformed into a future decarbonised energy system; a process that needs to be accelerated given the recent political situation. With a growing hydrogen market, pipeline-based transport using the existing natural gas infrastructure becomes economically viable, helps to increase public acceptance and accelerates the transition process. In this paper, the maximum technically feasible feed-in of hydrogen into the existing German natural gas transport network is analysed with regard to regulatory limits of gas quality. Analysis is based on a transient tracking model that builds on the general pooling problem including linepack. It is shown that even with strict limits, the gas grid offers sufficient capacity to serve as a guaranteed customer for a large part of the green hydrogen generation capacity planned until 2030. Y1 - 2023 PB - Vulkan Verlag ET - 06/2023 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Pedersen, Jaap A1 - Spreckelsen, Klaus A1 - Gotzes, Uwe A1 - Zittel, Janina A1 - Koch, Thorsten T1 - Beimischung von Wasserstoff zum Erdgas: Eine Kapazitätsstudie des deutschen Gasnetzes JF - 3R – Fachzeitschrift für Rohrleitungssystem N2 - Die europäische Gasinfrastruktur wird disruptiv in ein zukünftiges dekarbonisiertes Energiesystem verändert; ein Prozess, der angesichts der jüngsten politischen Situation beschleunigt werden muss. Mit einem wachsenden Wasserstoffmarkt wird der pipelinebasierte Transport unter Nutzung der bestehenden Erdgasinfrastruktur wirtschaftlich sinnvoll, trägt zur Erhöhung der öffentlichen Akzeptanz bei und beschleunigt den Umstellungsprozess. In diesem Fachbeitrag wird die maximal technisch machbare Einspeisung von Wasserstoff in das bestehende deutsche Erdgastransportnetz hinsichtlich regulatorischer Grenzwerte der Gasqualität analysiert. Die Analyse erfolgt auf Basis eines transienten Tracking-Modells, das auf dem allgemeinen Pooling-Problem einschließlich Linepack aufbaut. Es zeigt sich, dass das Gasnetz auch bei strengen Grenzwerten genügend Kapazität bietet, um für einen großen Teil der bis 2030 geplanten Erzeugungskapazität für grünen Wasserstoff als garantierter Abnehmer zu dienen. Y1 - 2023 IS - 06/2023 SP - 70 EP - 75 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Charousset-Brignol, Sandrine A1 - van Ackooij, Wim A1 - Oudjane, Nadia A1 - Daniel, Dominique A1 - Noceir, Slimane A1 - Haus, Utz-Uwe A1 - Lazzaro, Alfio A1 - Frangioni, Antonio A1 - Lobato, Rafael A1 - Ghezelsoflu, Ali A1 - Iardella, Niccolò A1 - Galli, Laura A1 - Gorgone, Enrico A1 - dell’Amico, Mauro A1 - Giannelos, Spyros A1 - Moreira, Alex A1 - Strbac, Goran A1 - Borozan, Stefan A1 - Falugi, Paula A1 - Pudjianto, Danny A1 - Wyrwoll, Lothar A1 - Schmitt, Carlo A1 - Franken, Marco A1 - Beulertz, Daniel A1 - Schwaeppe, Henrik A1 - Most, Dieter A1 - Yüksel-Ergün, Inci A1 - Zittel, Janina A1 - Koch, Thorsten T1 - Synergistic approach of multi-energy models for a European optimal energy system management tool T2 - The Project Repository Journal Y1 - 2021 VL - 9 SP - 113 EP - 116 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Yueksel-Erguen, Inci A1 - Most, Dieter A1 - Wyrwoll, Lothar A1 - Schmitt, Carlo A1 - Zittel, Janina T1 - Modeling the transition of the multimodal pan-European energy system including an integrated analysis of electricity and gas transport JF - Energy Systems N2 - Most recently, the European energy system has undergone a fundamental transformation to meet decarbonization targets without compromising the security of the energy supply. The transition involves several energy-generating and consuming sectors emphasizing sector coupling. The increase in the share of renewable energy sources has revealed the need for flexibility in supporting the electricity grid to cope with the resulting high degree of uncertainty. The new technologies accompanying the energy system transition and the recent political crisis in Europe threatening the security of the energy supply have invalidated the experience from the past by drastically changing the conventional scenarios. Hence, supporting strategic planning tools with detailed operational energy network models with appropriate mathematical precision has become more important than ever to understand the impacts of these disruptive changes. In this paper, we propose a workflow to investigate optimal energy transition pathways considering sector coupling. This workflow involves an integrated operational analysis of the electricity market, its transmission grid, and the gas grid in high spatio-temporal resolution. Thus, the workflow enables decision-makers to evaluate the reliability of high-level models even in case of disruptive events. We demonstrate the capabilities of the proposed workflow using results from a pan-European case study. The case study, spanning 2020-2050, illustrates that feasible potential pathways to carbon neutrality are heavily influenced by political and technological constraints. Through integrated operational analysis, we identify scenarios where strategic decisions become costly or infeasible given the existing electricity and gas networks. Y1 - 2023 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s12667-023-00637-5 ER - TY - CHAP A1 - Yueksel-Erguen, Inci A1 - Koch, Thorsten A1 - Zittel, Janina T1 - Consistent flow scenario generation based on open data for operational analysis of European gas transport networks T2 - Operations Research Proceedings 2023 N2 - In recent years, European gas transport has been affected by major disruptive events like political issues such as, most recently, the Russian war on Ukraine. To incorporate the impacts of such events into decision-making during the energy transition, more complex models for gas network analysis are required. However, the limited availability of consistent data presents a significant obstacle in this endeavor. We use a mathematical-modeling-based scenario generator to deal with this obstacle. The scenario generator consists of capacitated network flow models representing the gas network at different aggregation levels. In this study, we present the coarse-to-fine approach utilized in this scenario generator. Y1 - 2023 ER - TY - CHAP A1 - Petkovic, Milena A1 - Zittel, Janina T1 - Resilient Forecasting of High-Dimensional Network Time Series in the Energy Domain: A Hybrid Approach T2 - Operations Research Proceedings 2023 N2 - Energy systems are complex networks consisting of various interconnected components. Accurate energy demand and supply forecasts are crucial for efficient system operation and decision-making. However, high-dimensional data, complex network structures, and dynamic changes and disruptions in energy networks pose significant challenges for forecasting models. To address this, we propose a hybrid approach for resilient forecasting of network time series (HRF-NTS) in the energy domain. Our approach combines mathematical optimization methods with state-of-the-art machine learning techniques to achieve accurate and robust forecasts for high-dimensional energy network time series. We incorporate an optimization framework to account for uncertainties and disruptive changes in the energy system. The effectiveness of the proposed approach is demonstrated through a case study of forecasting energy demand and supply in a complex, large-scale natural gas transmission network. The results show that the hybrid approach outperforms alternative prediction models in terms of accuracy and resilience to structural changes and disruptions, providing stable, multi-step ahead forecasts for different short to mid-term forecasting horizons. Y1 - 2023 ER -