TY - JOUR A1 - Kork, F. A1 - Spies, Claudia A1 - Conrad, Tim A1 - Weiss, B. A1 - Roenneberg, T. A1 - Wernecke, K.-D. A1 - Balzer, Felix T1 - Associations of postoperative mortality with the time of day, week and year JF - Anaesthesia Y1 - 2018 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Sagnol, Guillaume A1 - Barner, Christoph A1 - Borndörfer, Ralf A1 - Grima, Mickaël A1 - Seeling, Mathes A1 - Spies, Claudia A1 - Wernecke, Klaus T1 - Robust Allocation of Operating Rooms: a Cutting Plane Approach to handle Lognormal Case Durations JF - European Journal of Operational Research N2 - The problem of allocating operating rooms (OR) to surgical cases is a challenging task, involving both combinatorial aspects and uncertainty handling. We formulate this problem as a parallel machines scheduling problem, in which job durations follow a lognormal distribution, and a fixed assignment of jobs to machines must be computed. We propose a cutting-plane approach to solve the robust counterpart of this optimization problem. To this end, we develop an algorithm based on fixed-point iterations that identifies worst-case scenarios and generates cut inequalities. The main result of this article uses Hilbert's projective geometry to prove the convergence of this procedure under mild conditions. We also propose two exact solution methods for a similar problem, but with a polyhedral uncertainty set, for which only approximation approaches were known. Our model can be extended to balance the load over several planning periods in a rolling horizon. We present extensive numerical experiments for instances based on real data from a major hospital in Berlin. In particular, we find that: (i) our approach performs well compared to a previous model that ignored the distribution of case durations; (ii) compared to an alternative stochastic programming approach, robust optimization yields solutions that are more robust against uncertainty, at a small price in terms of average cost; (iii) the \emph{longest expected processing time first} (LEPT) heuristic performs well and efficiently protects against extreme scenarios, but only if a good prediction model for the durations is available. Finally, we draw a number of managerial implications from these observations. Y1 - 2018 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2018.05.022 VL - 271 IS - 2 SP - 420 EP - 435 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Sagnol, Guillaume A1 - Barner, Christoph A1 - Borndörfer, Ralf A1 - Grima, Mickaël A1 - Seeling, Matthes A1 - Spies, Claudia A1 - Wernecke, Klaus T1 - Robust Allocation of Operating Rooms: a Cutting Plane Approach to handle Lognormal Case Durations N2 - The problem of allocating operating rooms (OR) to surgical cases is a challenging task, involving both combinatorial aspects and uncertainty handling. We formulate this problem as a parallel machines scheduling problem, in which job durations follow a lognormal distribution, and a fixed assignment of jobs to machines must be computed. We propose a cutting-plane approach to solve the robust counterpart of this optimization problem. To this end, we develop an algorithm based on fixed-point iterations that identifies worst-case scenarios and generates cut inequalities. The main result of this article uses Hilbert's projective geometry to prove the convergence of this procedure under mild conditions. We also propose two exact solution methods for a similar problem, but with a polyhedral uncertainty set, for which only approximation approaches were known. Our model can be extended to balance the load over several planning periods in a rolling horizon. We present extensive numerical experiments for instances based on real data from a major hospital in Berlin. In particular, we find that: (i) our approach performs well compared to a previous model that ignored the distribution of case durations; (ii) compared to an alternative stochastic programming approach, robust optimization yields solutions that are more robust against uncertainty, at a small price in terms of average cost; (iii) the \emph{longest expected processing time first} (LEPT) heuristic performs well and efficiently protects against extreme scenarios, but only if a good prediction model for the durations is available. Finally, we draw a number of managerial implications from these observations. T3 - ZIB-Report - 16-18 KW - robust optimization KW - lognormal duration KW - Hilbert's projective metric Y1 - 2016 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:0297-zib-58502 SN - 1438-0064 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Sagnol, Guillaume A1 - Borndörfer, Ralf A1 - Grima, Mickaël A1 - Seeling, Matthes A1 - Spies, Claudia T1 - Robust Allocation of Operating Rooms with Lognormal case Durations N2 - The problem of allocating operating rooms (OR) to surgical cases is a challenging task, involving both combinatorial aspects and uncertainty handling. In this article, we formulate this problem as a job shop scheduling problem, in which the job durations follow a lognormal distribution. We propose to use a cutting-plane approach to solve a robust version of this optimization problem. To this end, we develop an algorithm based on fixed-point iterations to solve the subproblems that identify worst-case scenarios and generate cut inequalities. The procedure is illustrated with numerical experiments based on real data from a major hospital in Berlin. T3 - ZIB-Report - 16-16 KW - robust optimization KW - lognormal duration KW - Hilbert's projective metric Y1 - 2016 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:0297-zib-58497 UR - http://www.pms2016.com/congreso/ficha.en.html SN - 1438-0064 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Sagnol, Guillaume A1 - Balzer, Felix A1 - Borndörfer, Ralf A1 - Spies, Claudia A1 - von Dincklage, Falk T1 - Makespan and Tardiness in Activity Networks with Lognormal Activity Durations N2 - We propose an algorithm to approximate the distribution of the completion time (makespan) and the tardiness costs of a project, when durations are lognormally distributed. This problem arises naturally for the optimization of surgery scheduling, where it is very common to assume lognormal procedure times. We present an analogous of Clark's formulas to compute the moments of the maximum of a set of lognormal variables. Then, we use moment matching formulas to approximate the earliest starting time of each activity of the project by a shifted lognormal variable. This approach can be seen as a lognormal variant of a state-of-the-art method used for the statistical static timing analysis (SSTA) of digital circuits. We carried out numerical experiments with instances based on real data from the application to surgery scheduling. We obtained very promising results, especially for the approximation of the mean overtime in operating rooms, for which our algorithm yields results of a similar quality to Monte-Carlo simulations requiring an amount of computing time several orders of magnitude larger. T3 - ZIB-Report - 16-23 KW - scheduling KW - activity network KW - lognormal distribution Y1 - 2016 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:0297-zib-59290 SN - 1438-0064 ER -