TY - GEN A1 - Willenbockel, Christian Tobias A1 - Schütte, Christof T1 - Variational Bayesian Inference and Model Selection for the Stochastic Block Model with Irrelevant Vertices N2 - Real World networks often exhibit a significant number of vertices which are sparsely and irregularly connected to other vertices in the network. For clustering theses networks with a model based algorithm, we propose the Stochastic Block Model with Irrelevant Vertices (SBMIV) for weighted net- works. We propose an original Variational Bayesian Expectation Maximiza- tion inference algorithm for the SBMIV which is an advanced version of our Blockloading algorithm for the Stochastic Block Model. We introduce a model selection criterion for the number of clusters of the SBMIV which is based on the lower variational bound of the model likelihood. We propose a fully Bayesian inference process, based on plausible informative priors, which is independent of other algorithms for preprocessing start values for the cluster assignment of vertices. Our inference methods allow for a multi level identification of irrelevant vertices which are hard to cluster reliably ac- cording to the SBM. We demonstrate that our methods improve on the normal Stochastic Block model by applying it to to Earthquake Networks which are an example of networks with a large number of sparsely and irregularly con- nected vertices. T3 - ZIB-Report - 16-01 KW - Clustering KW - Variational Bayes EM KW - Model Selection, KW - Stochastic Block Model KW - Networks KW - unsupervised classification KW - Noise Y1 - 2016 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:0297-zib-57003 SN - 1438-0064 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Klus, Stefan A1 - Schütte, Christof T1 - Towards tensor-based methods for the numerical approximation of the Perron-Frobenius and Koopman operator JF - Journal of Computational Dynamics N2 - The global behavior of dynamical systems can be studied by analyzing the eigenvalues and corresponding eigenfunctions of linear operators associated with the system. Two important operators which are frequently used to gain insight into the system's behavior are the Perron-Frobenius operator and the Koopman operator. Due to the curse of dimensionality, computing the eigenfunctions of high-dimensional systems is in general infeasible. We will propose a tensor-based reformulation of two numerical methods for computing finite-dimensional approximations of the aforementioned infinite-dimensional operators, namely Ulam's method and Extended Dynamic Mode Decomposition (EDMD). The aim of the tensor formulation is to approximate the eigenfunctions by low-rank tensors, potentially resulting in a significant reduction of the time and memory required to solve the resulting eigenvalue problems, provided that such a low-rank tensor decomposition exists. Typically, not all variables of a high-dimensional dynamical system contribute equally to the system's behavior, often the dynamics can be decomposed into slow and fast processes, which is also reflected in the eigenfunctions. Thus, the weak coupling between different variables might be approximated by low-rank tensor cores. We will illustrate the efficiency of the tensor-based formulation of Ulam's method and EDMD using simple stochastic differential equations. Y1 - 2016 U6 - https://doi.org/10.3934/jcd.2016007 VL - 3 IS - 2 SP - 139 EP - 161 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Winkelmann, Stefanie A1 - Schütte, Christof T1 - The Spatiotemporal Master Equation: Approximation of Reaction-Diffusion Dynamics via Markov State Modeling JF - Journal of Chemical Physics N2 - Accurate modeling and numerical simulation of reaction kinetics is a topic of steady interest.We consider the spatiotemporal chemical master equation (ST-CME) as a model for stochastic reaction-diffusion systems that exhibit properties of metastability. The space of motion is decomposed into metastable compartments and diffusive motion is approximated by jumps between these compartments. Treating these jumps as first-order reactions, simulation of the resulting stochastic system is possible by the Gillespie method. We present the theory of Markov state models (MSM) as a theoretical foundation of this intuitive approach. By means of Markov state modeling, both the number and shape of compartments and the transition rates between them can be determined. We consider the ST-CME for two reaction-diffusion systems and compare it to more detailed models. Moreover, a rigorous formal justification of the ST-CME by Galerkin projection methods is presented. Y1 - 2016 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1063/1.4971163 VL - 145 IS - 21 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Winkelmann, Stefanie A1 - Schütte, Christof T1 - The spatiotemporal master equation: approximation of reaction-diffusion dynamics via Markov state modeling N2 - Accurate modeling and numerical simulation of reaction kinetics is a topic of steady interest. We consider the spatiotemporal chemical master equation (ST-CME) as a model for stochastic reaction-diffusion systems that exhibit properties of metastability. The space of motion is decomposed into metastable compartments and diffusive motion is approximated by jumps between these compartments. Treating these jumps as first-order reactions, simulation of the resulting stochastic system is possible by the Gillespie method. We present the theory of Markov state models (MSM) as a theoretical foundation of this intuitive approach. By means of Markov state modeling, both the number and shape of compartments and the transition rates between them can be determined. We consider the ST-CME for two reaction-diffusion systems and compare it to more detailed models. Moreover, a rigorous formal justification of the ST-CME by Galerkin projection methods is presented. T3 - ZIB-Report - 16-60 KW - reaction-diffusion KW - stochastic chemical kinetics KW - chemical master equation Y1 - 2016 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:0297-zib-60999 SN - 1438-0064 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Gelß, Patrick A1 - Matera, Sebastian A1 - Schütte, Christof T1 - Solving the master equation without kinetic Monte Carlo: Tensor train approximations for a CO oxidation model JF - Journal of Computational Physics N2 - In multiscale modeling of heterogeneous catalytic processes, one crucial point is the solution of a Markovian master equation describing the stochastic reaction kinetics. Usually, this is too high-dimensional to be solved with standard numerical techniques and one has to rely on sampling approaches based on the kinetic Monte Carlo method. In this study we break the curse of dimensionality for the direct solution of the Markovian master equation by exploiting the Tensor Train Format for this purpose. The performance of the approach is demonstrated on a first principles based, reduced model for the CO oxidation on the RuO2(110) surface. We investigate the complexity for increasing system size and for various reaction conditions. The advantage over the stochastic simulation approach is illustrated by a problem with increased Y1 - 2016 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcp.2016.03.025 VL - 314 SP - 489 EP - 502 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Klebanov, Ilja A1 - Sikorski, Alexander A1 - Schütte, Christof A1 - Röblitz, Susanna T1 - Prior estimation and Bayesian inference from large cohort data sets N2 - One of the main goals of mathematical modelling in systems biology related to medical applications is to obtain patient-specific parameterisations and model predictions. In clinical practice, however, the number of available measurements for single patients is usually limited due to time and cost restrictions. This hampers the process of making patient-specific predictions about the outcome of a treatment. On the other hand, data are often available for many patients, in particular if extensive clinical studies have been performed. Using these population data, we propose an iterative algorithm for contructing an informative prior distribution, which then serves as the basis for computing patient-specific posteriors and obtaining individual predictions. We demonsrate the performance of our method by applying it to a low-dimensional parameter estimation problem in a toy model as well as to a high-dimensional ODE model of the human menstrual cycle, which represents a typical example from systems biology modelling. T3 - ZIB-Report - 16-09 Y1 - 2016 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:0297-zib-57475 SN - 1438-0064 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Klus, Stefan A1 - Koltai, Peter A1 - Schütte, Christof T1 - On the numerical approximation of the Perron-Frobenius and Koopman operator JF - Journal of Computational Dynamics N2 - Information about the behavior of dynamical systems can often be obtained by analyzing the eigenvalues and corresponding eigenfunctions of linear operators associated with a dynamical system. Examples of such operators are the Perron-Frobenius and the Koopman operator. In this paper, we will review di� fferent methods that have been developed over the last decades to compute � infinite-dimensional approximations of these in� finite-dimensional operators - in particular Ulam's method and Extended Dynamic Mode Decomposition (EDMD) - and highlight the similarities and di� fferences between these approaches. The results will be illustrated using simple stochastic di� fferential equations and molecular dynamics examples. Y1 - 2016 U6 - https://doi.org/10.3934/jcd.2016003 VL - 3 IS - 1 SP - 51 EP - 77 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Koltai, Peter A1 - Ciccotti, Giovanni A1 - Schütte, Christof T1 - On metastability and Markov state models for non-stationary molecular dynamics BT - 2016 Editor's Choice of The Journal of Chemical Physics T2 - The Journal of Chemical Physics N2 - We utilize the theory of coherent sets to build Markov state models for non- equilibrium molecular dynamical systems. Unlike for systems in equilibrium, “meta- stable” sets in the non-equilibrium case may move as time evolves. We formalize this concept by relying on the theory of coherent sets, based on this we derive finite-time non-stationary Markov state models, and illustrate the concept and its main differences to equilibrium Markov state modeling on simple, one-dimensional examples. T3 - ZIB-Report - 16-11 KW - coherent set, KW - Markov state model KW - non-equilibrium molecular dynamics KW - metastability Y1 - 2016 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:0297-zib-57869 SN - 1438-0064 VL - 174103 ET - 145 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Koltai, Peter A1 - Ciccotti, Giovanni A1 - Schütte, Christof T1 - On Markov state models for non-equilibrium molecular dynamics JF - The Journal of Chemical Physics Y1 - 2016 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1063/1.4966157 N1 - 2016 Editor's Choice of The Journal of Chemical Physics VL - 145 IS - 174103 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Hartmann, Carsten A1 - Schütte, Christof A1 - Zhang, Wei T1 - Model reduction algorithms for optimal control and importance sampling of diffusions JF - Nonlinearity N2 - We propose numerical algorithms for solving optimal control and importance sampling problems based on simplified models. The algorithms combine model reduction techniques for multiscale diffusions and stochastic optimization tools, with the aim of reducing the original, possibly high-dimensional problem to a lower dimensional representation of the dynamics, in which only a few relevant degrees of freedom are controlled or biased. Specifically, we study situations in which either a reaction coordinate onto which the dynamics can be projected is known, or situations in which the dynamics shows strongly localized behavior in the small noise regime. No explicit assumptions about small parameters or scale separation have to be made. We illustrate the approach with simple, but paradigmatic numerical examples. Y1 - 2016 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1088/0951-7715/29/8/2298 VL - 29 IS - 8 SP - 2298 EP - 2326 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Gul, Raheem A1 - Schütte, Christof A1 - Bernhard, Stefan T1 - Mathematical modeling and sensitivity analysis of arterial anastomosis in arm arteries JF - Applied Mathematical Modelling Y1 - 2016 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apm.2016.03.041 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Vega, Iliusi A1 - Schütte, Christof A1 - Conrad, Tim T1 - Finding metastable states in real-world time series with recurrence networks JF - Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications N2 - In the framework of time series analysis with recurrence networks, we introduce a self-adaptive method that determines the elusive recurrence threshold and identifies metastable states in complex real-world time series. As initial step, we introduce a way to set the embedding parameters used to reconstruct the state space from the time series. We set them as the ones giving the maximum Shannon entropy of the diagonal line length distribution for the first simultaneous minima of recurrence rate and Shannon entropy. To identify metastable states, as well as the transitions between them, we use a soft partitioning algorithm for module finding which is specifically developed for the case in which a system shows metastability. We illustrate our method with a complex time series example. Finally, we show the robustness of our method for identifying metastable states. Our results suggest that our method is robust for identifying metastable states in complex time series, even when introducing considerable levels of noise and missing data points. Y1 - 2016 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.physa.2015.10.041 VL - 445 SP - 1 EP - 17 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Djurdjevac Conrad, Natasa A1 - Weber, Marcus A1 - Schütte, Christof T1 - Finding dominant structures of nonreversible Markov processes JF - Multiscale Modeling and Simulation Y1 - 2016 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1137/15M1032272 VL - 14 IS - 4 SP - 1319 EP - 1340 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Klebanov, Ilja A1 - Sikorski, Alexander A1 - Schütte, Christof A1 - Röblitz, Susanna T1 - Empirical Bayes Methods, Reference Priors, Cross Entropy and the EM Algorithm N2 - When estimating a probability density within the empirical Bayes framework, the non-parametric maximum likelihood estimate (NPMLE) usually tends to overfit the data. This issue is usually taken care of by regularization - a penalization term is subtracted from the marginal log-likelihood before the maximization step, so that the estimate favors smooth solutions, resulting in the so-called maximum penalized likelihood estimation (MPLE). The majority of penalizations currently in use are rather arbitrary brute-force solutions, which lack invariance under transformation of the parameters(reparametrization) and measurements. This contradicts the principle that, if the underlying model has several equivalent formulations, the methods of inductive inference should lead to consistent results. Motivated by this principle and using an information-theoretic point of view, we suggest an entropy-based penalization term that guarantees this kind of invariance. The resulting density estimate can be seen as a generalization of reference priors. Using the reference prior as a hyperprior, on the other hand, is argued to be a poor choice for regularization. We also present an insightful connection between the NPMLE, the cross entropy and the principle of minimum discrimination information suggesting another method of inference that contains the doubly-smoothed maximum likelihood estimation as a special case. T3 - ZIB-Report - 16-56 KW - parameter estimation KW - Bayesian inference KW - Bayesian hierarchical modeling KW - hyperparameter KW - hyperprior KW - EM algorithm KW - NPMLE KW - MPLE KW - DS-MLE KW - principle of maximum entropy KW - cross entropy KW - minimum discrimination information KW - reference prior KW - Jeffreys prior Y1 - 2016 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:0297-zib-61230 SN - 1438-0064 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Klebanov, Ilja A1 - Sikorski, Alexander A1 - Schütte, Christof A1 - Röblitz, Susanna T1 - Empirical Bayes Methods for Prior Estimation in Systems Medicine N2 - One of the main goals of mathematical modelling in systems medicine related to medical applications is to obtain patient-specific parameterizations and model predictions. In clinical practice, however, the number of available measurements for single patients is usually limited due to time and cost restrictions. This hampers the process of making patient-specific predictions about the outcome of a treatment. On the other hand, data are often available for many patients, in particular if extensive clinical studies have been performed. Therefore, before applying Bayes’ rule separately to the data of each patient (which is typically performed using a non-informative prior), it is meaningful to use empirical Bayes methods in order to construct an informative prior from all available data. We compare the performance of four priors - a non-informative prior and priors chosen by nonparametric maximum likelihood estimation (NPMLE), by maximum penalized lilelihood estimation (MPLE) and by doubly-smoothed maximum likelihood estimation (DS-MLE) - by applying them to a low-dimensional parameter estimation problem in a toy model as well as to a high-dimensional ODE model of the human menstrual cycle, which represents a typical example from systems biology modelling. T3 - ZIB-Report - 16-57 KW - Parameter estimation KW - Bayesian inference KW - Bayesian hierarchical modelling KW - NPMLE KW - MPLE KW - DS-MLE KW - EM algorithm KW - Jeffreys prior KW - reference prior KW - hyperparameter KW - hyperprior KW - principle of maximum entropy Y1 - 2016 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:0297-zib-61307 SN - 1438-0064 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Zhang, Wei A1 - Hartmann, Carsten A1 - Schütte, Christof T1 - Effective Dynamics Along Given Reaction Coordinates, and Reaction Rate Theory N2 - In molecular dynamics and related fields one considers dynamical descriptions of complex systems in full (atomic) detail. In order to reduce the overwhelming complexity of realistic systems (high dimension, large timescale spread, limited computational resources) the projection of the full dynamics onto some reaction coordinates is examined in order to extract statistical information like free energies or reaction rates. In this context, the effective dynamics that is induced by the full dynamics on the reaction coordinate space has attracted considerable attention in the literature. In this article, we contribute to this discussion: We first show that if we start with an ergodic diffusion processes whose invariant measure is unique then these properties are inherited by the effective dynamics. Then, we give equations for the effective dynamics, discuss whether the dominant timescales and reaction rates inferred from the effective dynamics are accurate approximations of such quantities for the full dynamics, and compare our findings to results from approaches like Zwanzig-Mori, averaging, or homogenization. Finally, by discussing the algorithmic realization of the effective dynamics, we demonstrate that recent algorithmic techniques like the ”equation-free” approach and the ”heterogeneous multiscale method” can be seen as special cases of our approach. T3 - ZIB-Report - 16-35 KW - Ergodic diffusion KW - reaction coordinate KW - effective dynamics KW - model reduction KW - equation-free KW - heterogeneous multiscale method Y1 - 2016 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:0297-zib-59706 SN - 1438-0064 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Zhang, Wei A1 - Hartmann, Carsten A1 - Schütte, Christof T1 - Effective dynamics along given reaction coordinates, and reaction rate theory JF - Faraday Discussions Y1 - 2016 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1039/C6FD00147E IS - 195 SP - 365 EP - 394 ER -