@phdthesis{Dovica2014, author = {Dovica, Ivan}, title = {Robust tail assignment}, year = {2014}, abstract = {The first part of this thesis is devoted to the general problem of stochastic shortest path problem. It is about searching for the shortest path in a graph in which arc lengths are uncertain and specified by continuous random variables. This problem is at the core of various applications, especially in robust transportation planning where paths correspond to aircraft, train, or bus rotations, crew duties or rosters, etc. We propose a novel solution method based on a discretisation of random variables which is applicable to any class of continuous random variables. We also give bounds on the approximation error of the discretised path lengths compared to the continuous path lengths. In addition, we provide theoretical results for the computational complexity of this method. In the second part we apply this method to a real world airline transportation problem: the so-called tail assignment problem. The goal of the tail assignment problem is to construct aircraft rotations, routes consisting of flight segments, for a set of individual aircraft in order to cover a set of flight segments (legs) while considering operational constraints of each individual aircraft as well as short- to long-term individual maintenance requirements. We state a stochastic programming formulation of this problem and we show how to solve it efficiently by using our method within a column generation framework. We show the gain of our stochastic approach in comparison to standard KPI in terms of less propagated delay and thus less operational costs without growth of computational complexity. A key point of our complex approach to robust optimisation problem is the fit of the underlying stochastic model with reality. We propose a delay propagation model that is realistic, not overfitted, and can therefore be used for forecasting purposes. We benchmark our results using extensive simulation. We show a significant decrease of arrival delays and thus monetary savings on average as well as in the majority of our disruption scenarios. We confirm these benefits in even more life-like benchmarks as simulation where recovery actions are taken and in scenarios which use historical delays directly instead of the stochastic model.}, language = {en} } @article{FroylandMaherWu2014, author = {Froyland, Gary and Maher, Stephen J. and Wu, Cheng-Lung}, title = {The recoverable robust tail assignment problem}, volume = {48}, journal = {Transportation Science}, number = {3}, doi = {10.1287/trsc.2013.0463}, pages = {351 -- 372}, year = {2014}, abstract = {Schedule disruptions are commonplace in the airline industry with many flight-delaying events occurring each day. Recently there has been a focus on introducing robustness into airline planning stages to reduce the effect of these disruptions. We propose a recoverable robustness technique as an alternative to robust optimisation to reduce the effect of disruptions and the cost of recovery. We formulate the recoverable robust tail assignment problem (RRTAP) as a stochastic program, solved using column generation in the master and subproblems of the Benders' decomposition. We implement a two-phase algorithm for the Benders' decomposition and identify pareto-optimal cuts. The RRTAP includes costs due to flight delays, cancellation, and passenger rerouting, and the recovery stage includes cancellation, delay, and swapping options. To highlight the benefits of simultaneously solving planning and recovery problems in the RRTAP we compare our tail assignment solution against current approaches from the literature. Using airline data we demonstrate that by developing a better tail assignment plan via the RRTAP framework, one can reduce recovery costs in the event of a disruption.}, language = {en} } @article{MaherDesaulniersSoumis2014, author = {Maher, Stephen J. and Desaulniers, Guy and Soumis, Francois}, title = {Recoverable robust single day aircraft maintenance routing problem}, volume = {51}, journal = {Computers \& Operations Research}, doi = {10.1016/j.cor.2014.03.007}, pages = {130 -- 145}, year = {2014}, abstract = {Aircraft maintenance planning is of critical importance to the safe and efficient operations of an airline. It is common to solve the aircraft routing and maintenance planning problems many months in advance, with the solution spanning multiple days. An unfortunate consequence of this approach is the possible infeasibility of the maintenance plan due to frequent perturbations occurring in operations. There is an emerging concept that focuses on the generation of aircraft routes for a single day to ensure maintenance coverage that night, alleviating the effects of schedule perturbations from preceding days. In this paper, we present a novel approach to ensure that a sufficient number of aircraft routes are provided each day so maintenance critical aircraft receive maintenance that night. By penalising the under supply of routes terminating at maintenance stations from each overnight airport, we construct a single day routing to provide the best possible maintenance plan. This single day aircraft maintenance routing problem (SDAMRP) is further protected from disruptions by applying the recoverable robustness framework. To efficiently solve the recoverable robust SDAMRP acceleration techniques, such as identifying Pareto-optimal cuts and a trust region approach, have been applied. The SDAMRP is evaluated against a set of flight schedules and the results demonstrate a significantly improved aircraft maintenance plan. Further, the results demonstrate the magnitude of recoverability improvement that is achieved by employing recoverable robustness to the SDAMRP.}, language = {en} }