@article{CardereraPokuttaSchuetteetal.2025, author = {Carderera, Alejandro and Pokutta, Sebastian and Sch{\"u}tte, Christof and Weiser, Martin}, title = {An efficient first-order conditional gradient algorithm in data-driven sparse identification of nonlinear dynamics to solve sparse recovery problems under noise}, volume = {470}, journal = {Journal of Computational and Applied Mathematics}, doi = {10.1016/j.cam.2025.116675}, year = {2025}, abstract = {Governing equations are essential to the study of nonlinear dynamics, often enabling the prediction of previously unseen behaviors as well as the inclusion into control strategies. The discovery of governing equations from data thus has the potential to transform data-rich fields where well-established dynamical models remain unknown. This work contributes to the recent trend in data-driven sparse identification of nonlinear dynamics of finding the best sparse fit to observational data in a large library of potential nonlinear models. We propose an efficient first-order Conditional Gradient algorithm for solving the underlying optimization problem. In comparison to the most prominent alternative framework, the new framework shows significantly improved performance on several essential issues like sparsity-induction, structure-preservation, noise robustness, and sample efficiency. We demonstrate these advantages on several dynamics from the field of synchronization, particle dynamics, and enzyme chemistry.}, language = {en} } @article{AndresArconesWeiserKoutsourelakisetal.2026, author = {Andr{\´e}s Arcones, Daniel and Weiser, Martin and Koutsourelakis, Phaedon-Stelios and Unger, J{\"o}rg F.}, title = {Embedded Model Form Uncertainty Quantification with Measurement Noise for Bayesian Model Calibration}, volume = {7}, journal = {Data-Centric Engineering}, arxiv = {http://arxiv.org/abs/2410.12037}, doi = {10.1017/dce.2025.10035}, year = {2026}, abstract = {A key factor in ensuring the accuracy of computer simulations that model physical systems is the proper calibration of their parameters based on real-world observations or experimental data. Inevitably, uncertainties arise, and Bayesian methods provide a robust framework for quantifying and propagating these uncertainties to model predictions. Nevertheless, Bayesian methods paired with inexact models usually produce predictions unable to represent the observed datapoints. Additionally, the quantified uncertainties of these overconfident models cannot be propagated to other Quantities of Interest (QoIs) reliably. A promising solution involves embedding a model inadequacy term in the inference parameters, allowing the quantified model form uncertainty to influence non-observed QoIs. This paper introduces a more interpretable framework for embedding the model inadequacy compared to existing methods. To overcome the limitations of current approaches, we adapt the existing likelihood models to properly account for noise in the measurements and propose two new formulations designed to address their shortcomings. Moreover, we evaluate the performance of this inadequacy-embedding approach in the presence of discrepancies between measurements and model predictions, including noise and outliers. Particular attention is given to how the uncertainty associated with the model inadequacy term propagates to the QoIs, enabling a more comprehensive statistical analysis of prediction's reliability. Finally, the proposed approach is applied to estimate the uncertainty in the predicted heat flux from a transient thermal simulation using temperature bservations.}, language = {en} } @inproceedings{BorndoerferJocasWeiser2026, author = {Bornd{\"o}rfer, Ralf and Jocas, Arturas and Weiser, Martin}, title = {An Eikonal Approach for Globally Optimal Free Flight Trajectories}, arxiv = {http://arxiv.org/abs/2603.11830}, year = {2026}, abstract = {We present an eikonal-based approach that is capable of finding a continuous globally optimal trajectory for an aircraft in a stationary wind field. This minimizes emissions and fuel consumption. If the destination is close to a cut locus of the associated Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation, small numerical discretization errors can lead to selecting a merely locally optimal trajectory and missing the globally optimal one. Based on finite element error estimates, we construct a trust region around the cut loci in order to guarantee uniqueness of trajectories for destinations sufficiently far from cut loci.}, language = {en} } @article{SubramaniamHubigSchenkletal.2026, author = {Subramaniam, Jayant Shanmugam and Hubig, Michael and Schenkl, Sebastian and Muggenthaler, Holger and Springer, Steffen and Weiser, Martin and Sudau, Jakob and Shah, Faisal and Mall, Gita}, title = {Reconstructing sudden ambient temperature changes for forensic death time estimation using temperatures in two closed compartments: Proof of concept}, journal = {International Journal of Legal Medicine}, year = {2026}, abstract = {Ambient temperature TA has a strong impact on temperature-based time since death estimation (TTDE). Frequently TA is lowered instantaneously at some time t0 from a previous value TA0 to TA1 < TA0 by, e.g., opening a window or a door. We aim at reconstructing TA0 and t0. TTDE literature suggests temperature measurements in closed compartments such as cupboards or neighboring rooms, where TA0 could have been 'preserved' after t0. We aim to estimate t0 and TA0 from temperature measurements TZ(t) in closed compartments Z at times t > t0. We obtain promising results assuming Newtonian cooling for boxes filled with air, heaps of clothes, or books in two different experimental scenarios. Two different parameter estimators, (TA0^, t0^) based on four temperature measurements and (TA0*, t0*) for 4N measurements were tested. Our results in a climate chamber were partially appropriate for TTDE input. A decline at time t0 from TA0 = 22.5°C ↓ TA1 = 14°C was reconstructed at t = t0 + 95min with relative deviations ρt0^ = 27\% and ρTA0^ = 19\% relative to t - t0 and TA0 - TA1 respectively, for N = 1 with span Δt = 50min. For N = 200 in a time interval [t0 + 95min, t0 + 295min] we found ρt0^ = 5\% and ρTA0^ = 11\% with the same Δt. Further research is necessary to guarantee applicability in routine casework, in particular with respect to more elaborate cooling models, estimation algorithms, and evaluation localization.}, language = {en} } @article{VillaniAndresArconesUngeretal.2026, author = {Villani, Paolo and Andr{\´e}s Arcones, Daniel and Unger, J{\"o}rg F. and Weiser, Martin}, title = {Gaussian mixture models for model improvement}, arxiv = {http://arxiv.org/abs/2603.15101}, year = {2026}, abstract = {Modeling complex physical systems such as they arise in civil engineering applications requires finding a trade-off between physical fidelity and practicality. Consequently, deviations of simulation from measurements are ubiquitous even after model calibration due to the model discrepancy, which may result from deliberate modeling decisions, ignorance, or lack of knowledge. If the mismatch between simulation and measurements are deemed unacceptable, the model has to be improved. Targeted model improvement is challenging due to a non-local impact of model discrepancies on measurements and the dependence on sensor configurations. Many approaches to model improvement, such as Bayesian calibration with additive mismatch terms, gray-box models, symbolic regression, or stochastic model updating, often lack interpretability, generalizability, physical consistency, or practical applicability. This paper introduces a non-intrusive approach to model discrepancy analysis using mixture models. Instead of directly modifying the model structure, the method maps sensor readings to clusters of physically meaningful parameters, automatically assigning sensor readings to parameter vector clusters. This mapping can reveal systematic discrepancies and model biases, guiding targeted, physics-based refinements by the modeler. The approach is formulated within a Bayesian framework, enabling the identification of parameter clusters and their assignments via the Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm. The methodology is demonstrated through numerical experiments, including an illustrative example and a real-world case study of heat transfer in a concrete bridge.}, language = {en} } @misc{BaumannDudaSchielaetal.2026, author = {Baumann, Felix and Duda, Georg and Schiela, Anton and Weiser, Martin}, title = {Identification of Stress in Heterogeneous Contact Models}, volume = {173}, journal = {Non-Smooth and Complementarity-Based Distributed Parameter Systems}, editor = {Hinterm{\"u}ller, Michael and Herzog, Roland and Kanzow, Christian and Ulbrich, Michael and Ulbrich, Stefan}, publisher = {Springer Nature}, year = {2026}, abstract = {We develop a heterogeneous model of the lower limb system to simulate muscle forces and stresses acting on the knee joint. The modelling of the bone dynamics leads to an index-3 DAE, which we discretize by higher order collocation methods. Furthermore, we present an elastomechanical contact knee joint model of the articular cartilage. For the solution of the contact problem we develop an efficient multigrid solver, based on an Augmented-Lagrangian relaxation of the contact constraints. We formulate the identification of joint forces and resulting stresses with respect to different knee joint models as an inverse problem based on medical gait data.}, language = {en} }