@misc{RoeblitzStoetzelDeuflhardetal.2011, author = {R{\"o}blitz, Susanna and St{\"o}tzel, Claudia and Deuflhard, Peter and Jones, Hannah M. and Azulay, David-Olivier and van der Graaf, Piet and Martin, Steven}, title = {A mathematical model of the human menstrual cycle for the administration of GnRH analogues}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:0297-zib-12732}, number = {11-16}, year = {2011}, abstract = {This study presents a differential equation model for the feedback mechanisms between Gonadotropin-releasing Hormone (GnRH), Follicle-Stimulating Hormone (FSH), Luteinizing Hormone (LH), development of follicles and corpus luteum, and the production of estradiol (E2), progesterone (P4), inhibin A (IhA), and inhibin B (IhB) during the female menstrual cycle. In contrast to other models, this model does not involve delay differential equations and is based on deterministic modelling of the GnRH pulse pattern, which allows for faster simulation times and efficient parameter identification. These steps were essential to tackle the task of developing a mathematical model for the administration of GnRH analogues. The focus of this paper is on model development for GnRH receptor binding and the integration of a pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic model for the GnRH agonist Nafarelin and the GnRH antagonist Cetrorelix into the menstrual cycle model. The final mathematical model describes the hormone profiles (LH, FSH, P4, E2) throughout the menstrual cycle in 12 healthy women. Moreover, it correctly predicts the changes in the cycle following single and multiple dose administration of Nafarelin or Cetrorelix at different stages in the cycle.}, language = {en} } @misc{StoetzelPloentzkeRoeblitz2011, author = {St{\"o}tzel, Claudia and Pl{\"o}ntzke, Julia and R{\"o}blitz, Susanna}, title = {Advances in modelling of the bovine estrous cycle: Administration of PGF2alpha}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:0297-zib-12740}, number = {11-17}, year = {2011}, abstract = {Our model of the bovine estrous cycle is a set of ordinary differential equations which generates hormone profiles of successive estrous cycles with several follicular waves per cycle. It describes the growth and decay of the follicles and the corpus luteum, as well as the change of the key substances over time. In this work we describe recent improvements of this model, including the introduction of new components, and elimination of time delays. We validate our model by showing that the simulations agree with observations from synchronization studies and with measured progesterone data after a single dose administration of synthetic prostaglandin F2alpha.}, language = {en} } @misc{PloentzkeBergOlanyetal.2013, author = {Pl{\"o}ntzke, Julia and Berg, Mascha and Olany, Amiya and Leonhard-Marek, Sabine and M{\"u}ller, Kerstin-Elisabeth and R{\"o}blitz, Susanna}, title = {Modeling potassium balance in dairy cows}, issn = {1438-0064}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:0297-zib-17749}, year = {2013}, abstract = {Potassium is fundamental for cell functioning including signal transduction, acid-base- and water-metabolism. Since diet of dairy cows is generally rich in potassium, hypokalemia was not in the focus of research for long time. Furthermore, hypokalemia was not frequently diagnosed because blood potassium content is difficult to measure. In recent years, measurement methods have been improved. Nowadays hypokalemia is increasingly diagnosed in cows with disorders such as abomasal displacement, ketosis or down cow syndrome, calling for intensified research on this topic. In this report we describe the development of a basic mechanistic, dynamic model of potassium balance based on ordinary differential and algebraic equations. Parameter values are obtained from data of a clinical trial in which potassium balance and the influence of therapeutic intervention in glucose and electrolyte metabolism on potassium balance in non-lactating dairy cows were studied. The model is formulated at a high abstraction level and includes information and hypotheses from literature. This work represents a first step towards the understanding and design of effective prophylactic feed additives and treatment strategies.}, language = {en} } @misc{MoualeuNgangueRoeblitzEhrigetal.2013, author = {Moualeu-Ngangue, Dany Pascal and R{\"o}blitz, Susanna and Ehrig, Rainald and Deuflhard, Peter}, title = {Parameter Identification for a Tuberculosis Model in Cameroon}, issn = {1438-0064}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0120607}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:0297-zib-43087}, year = {2013}, abstract = {A deterministic model of tuberculosis in sub-Saharan Africa in general and Cameroon in particular including lack of access to the treatment and weak diagnose capacity is designed and analyzed with respect to its transmission dynamics. The model includes both frequency- and density-dependent transmissions. It is shown that the model is mathematically well-posed and epidemiologically reasonable. Solutions are non-negative and bounded whenever the initial values are non-negative. A sensitivity analysis of model parameters is performed and most sensitive parameters of the model are identified using a state-of-the-art Gauss-Newton Method. In particular, parameters representing the proportion of individuals having access to medical facilities have a large impact on the dynamics of the disease. It has been shown that an increase of these parameter values over the time can significantly reduce the disease burden in the population within the next 15 years.}, language = {en} } @misc{MoualeuNgangueWeiserEhrigetal.2013, author = {Moualeu-Ngangue, Dany Pascal and Weiser, Martin and Ehrig, Rainald and Deuflhard, Peter}, title = {Optimal control for a tuberculosis model with undetected cases in Cameroon}, issn = {1438-0064}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:0297-zib-43142}, year = {2013}, abstract = {This paper considers the optimal control of tuberculosis through education, diagnosis campaign and chemoprophylaxis of latently infected. A mathematical model which includes important components such as undiagnosed infectious, diagnosed infectious, latently infected and lost-sight infectious is formulated. The model combines a frequency dependent and a density dependent force of infection for TB transmission. Through optimal control theory and numerical simulations, a cost-effective balance of two different intervention methods is obtained. Seeking to minimize the amount of money the government spends when tuberculosis remain endemic in the Cameroonian population, Pontryagin's maximum principle is used to characterize the optimal control. The optimality system is derived and solved numerically using the forward-backward sweep method (FBSM). Results provide a framework for designing cost-effective strategies for diseases with multiple intervention methods. It comes out that combining chemoprophylaxis and education, the burden of TB can be reduced by 80 \% in 10 years}, language = {en} } @misc{MeiselRoeblitz2013, author = {Meisel, Kristin and R{\"o}blitz, Susanna}, title = {Mathematische Modellierung der Knochenremodellierung}, issn = {1438-0064}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:0297-zib-42010}, year = {2013}, abstract = {Knochenremodellierung beinhaltet den Auf- und Abbau der Knochenmasse durch die verschiedenen Knochenzellen und findet fast {\"u}berall, auch am Skelett Erwachsener, statt. F{\"u}r die Erneuerung der Knochensubstanz sind die Osteoblasten zust{\"a}ndig. Sie ersetzen exakt die Menge der Knochenmasse, welche zuvor durch Osteoklasten abgebaut wurde. St{\"o}rungen dieses, durch viele Faktoren beeinflussten Prozesses f{\"u}hren zu pathologischen Ver{\"a}nderungen, beispielsweise zu Osteoporose oder Arthritis. Auf der Grundlage analysierter publizierter Modelle wurde ein Modell entwickelt, welches den Einfluss einiger dieser Faktoren realistisch abbildet. Auf diese Weise kann die Wirkung von basalem PTH, des RANKL-OPG-Systems ( RANKL: Receptor activator of nuclear factor kappa-B ligand, OPG: Osteoprotegerin) und des Estradiols auf den Knochenstoffwechsel am vorgestellten System untersucht werden. Außerdem wurde durch Estradiolmangel hervorgerufene Osteoporose und der kurative Effekt von synthetischen Medikamenten wie Estradiol oder intermittierend verabreichtem PTH modelliert. Mit der Parametersch{\"a}tzung anhand des Gauß-Newton-Verfahrens wird des Weiteren eine Methode vorgestellt, die es erm{\"o}glicht, mathematische Modelle bestm{\"o}glich durch Variation der Parameterwerte an experimentelle Daten anzupassen. Das am Zuse-Institut Berlin entwickelte Softwarepaket POEM wendet diesen Algorithmus an und wird ebenfalls erl{\"a}utert.}, language = {de} } @misc{Winkelmann2016, author = {Winkelmann, Stefanie}, title = {Markov Control with Rare State Observation: Average Optimality}, issn = {1438-0064}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:0297-zib-60981}, year = {2016}, abstract = {This paper investigates the criterion of long-term average costs for a Markov decision process (MDP) which is not permanently observable. Each observation of the process produces a fixed amount of \textit{information costs} which enter the considered performance criterion and preclude from arbitrarily frequent state testing. Choosing the \textit{rare} observation times is part of the control procedure. In contrast to the theory of partially observable Markov decision processes, we consider an arbitrary continuous-time Markov process on a finite state space without further restrictions on the dynamics or the type of interaction. Based on the original Markov control theory, we redefine the control model and the average cost criterion for the setting of information costs. We analyze the constant of average costs for the case of ergodic dynamics and present an optimality equation which characterizes the optimal choice of control actions and observation times. For this purpose, we construct an equivalent freely observable MDP and translate the well-known results from the original theory to the new setting.}, language = {en} } @misc{KlebanovSikorskiSchuetteetal.2016, author = {Klebanov, Ilja and Sikorski, Alexander and Sch{\"u}tte, Christof and R{\"o}blitz, Susanna}, title = {Empirical Bayes Methods, Reference Priors, Cross Entropy and the EM Algorithm}, issn = {1438-0064}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:0297-zib-61230}, year = {2016}, abstract = {When estimating a probability density within the empirical Bayes framework, the non-parametric maximum likelihood estimate (NPMLE) usually tends to overfit the data. This issue is usually taken care of by regularization - a penalization term is subtracted from the marginal log-likelihood before the maximization step, so that the estimate favors smooth solutions, resulting in the so-called maximum penalized likelihood estimation (MPLE). The majority of penalizations currently in use are rather arbitrary brute-force solutions, which lack invariance under transformation of the parameters(reparametrization) and measurements. This contradicts the principle that, if the underlying model has several equivalent formulations, the methods of inductive inference should lead to consistent results. Motivated by this principle and using an information-theoretic point of view, we suggest an entropy-based penalization term that guarantees this kind of invariance. The resulting density estimate can be seen as a generalization of reference priors. Using the reference prior as a hyperprior, on the other hand, is argued to be a poor choice for regularization. We also present an insightful connection between the NPMLE, the cross entropy and the principle of minimum discrimination information suggesting another method of inference that contains the doubly-smoothed maximum likelihood estimation as a special case.}, language = {en} } @misc{KlebanovSikorskiSchuetteetal.2016, author = {Klebanov, Ilja and Sikorski, Alexander and Sch{\"u}tte, Christof and R{\"o}blitz, Susanna}, title = {Empirical Bayes Methods for Prior Estimation in Systems Medicine}, issn = {1438-0064}, arxiv = {http://arxiv.org/abs/1612.01403}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:0297-zib-61307}, year = {2016}, abstract = {One of the main goals of mathematical modelling in systems medicine related to medical applications is to obtain patient-specific parameterizations and model predictions. In clinical practice, however, the number of available measurements for single patients is usually limited due to time and cost restrictions. This hampers the process of making patient-specific predictions about the outcome of a treatment. On the other hand, data are often available for many patients, in particular if extensive clinical studies have been performed. Therefore, before applying Bayes' rule separately to the data of each patient (which is typically performed using a non-informative prior), it is meaningful to use empirical Bayes methods in order to construct an informative prior from all available data. We compare the performance of four priors - a non-informative prior and priors chosen by nonparametric maximum likelihood estimation (NPMLE), by maximum penalized lilelihood estimation (MPLE) and by doubly-smoothed maximum likelihood estimation (DS-MLE) - by applying them to a low-dimensional parameter estimation problem in a toy model as well as to a high-dimensional ODE model of the human menstrual cycle, which represents a typical example from systems biology modelling.}, language = {en} } @misc{Brueggemann2013, type = {Master Thesis}, author = {Br{\"u}ggemann, Jo Andrea}, title = {Numerical Modelling of the human menstrual cycle applied to ovulation prediction}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:0297-zib-46168}, year = {2013}, abstract = {In this Master Thesis, the modelling process and the required biological background to adequately describe the hormonal dynamics of the human menstrual cycle are presented. The aim of this Master thesis project is to establish a mathematical routine that enables prediction of potentially fertile time windows. A system of four parameter dependent ordinary differential equations coupled with two algebraic equations is built, accounting for the main kinetic drivers of the human menstrual cycle { basal body temperature, estradiol, progesterone, luteinizing and follicle stimulating hormone. The key parameters are identifed using a nonlinear least squares approach to match the model to individual data. Aiming to solve the optimality problem arising, the Newton and Gauss-Newton method are examined and their local convergence theory is outlined. By the nature of the application, a globalised Gauss-Newton method seems more convenient. An adaptive trust region approach to determine the step lengths is chosen, which together with an linearly-implicit Euler extrapolation for the given differential algebraic equation system makes parameter estimation possible. The simulation results are discussed particularly in view of limitations and problems arising through the modelling approach.}, language = {en} } @misc{Knoechel2014, type = {Master Thesis}, author = {Kn{\"o}chel, Jane}, title = {Mathematische Modellierung metabolischer Einflussfaktoren auf den Milchkuhzyklus}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:0297-zib-46170}, year = {2014}, abstract = {In den letzten Jahren ist die reproduktive Leistung von Milchk{\"u}hen parallel zur steigenden Milchleistung drastisch gesunken. Um die zu Grunde liegenden biologischen Mechanismen besser zu verstehen, wurde in dieser Arbeit eine Modellerweiterung des vorhandenen Modells von St{\"o}tzel et al. (2011) um metabolische Einflussfaktoren angestrebt. Hierf{\"u}r wurde zuerst aus ver{\"o}ffentlichten, experimentell gewonnen Erkenntnissen herausgearbeitet, wie die metabolischen Faktoren auf das periodische Zyklusverfahren der Milchkuh Einfluss nehmen. Daraus wurde ersichtlich, dass Glukose, Insulin und IGF-I die wichtigsten metabolischen Faktoren sind, aber lediglich IGF-I als dynamische Gr{\"o}ße in das Modell eingeht. Zur Validierung des erweiterten Modells, wurden im Rahmen dieser Arbeit Szenarien aus der Literatur entwickelt, welche eine negative Energiebilanz oder den Effekt von Di{\"a}trestriktionen auf den Milchkuhzyklus simulieren sollten. Ferner wurden Messdaten f{\"u}r IGF, E2 und P4 von Kawashima et al. (2007) und Cerri et al. (2011) bereit gestellt. Das erweiterte Modell umfasst lediglich 8 Parameter mehr als das Ursprungsmodell, wobei gezeigt werden konnte, dass weder die Bedingung f{\"u}r die L{\"o}sbarkeit noch die Stabilit{\"a}t in den Anfangswerten eingeb{\"u}ßt wurde. Die Modellkurven konnten mittels des NLSCON erfolgreich an die bereitgestellten Messdaten f{\"u}r IGF, E2 und P4 angepasst werden. Anhand der Ergebnisse aus den Szenarien ließ sich zeigen, dass es teilweise gelingt {\"u}ber die metabolischen Einflussfaktoren eine negative Energiebilanz f{\"u}r unterern{\"a}hrte K{\"u}he darzustellen. Die R{\"u}ckf{\"u}hrung in das periodische Zyklusverhalten verlief jedoch im Vergleich zu in vivo Beobachtungen zu schnell ab. Eine m{\"o}gliche Erkl{\"a}rung hierf{\"u}r ist ein zu geringer Einfluss von IGF-I auf das Modell. Dar{\"u}ber hinaus kam es trotz (stark) reduzierter LH-Konzentration zur Ovulation. Auf diesen Erkenntnissen aufbauend k{\"o}nnte in Zukunft die Follikelmodellierung modifiziert oder die Hillfunktion, die die Ovulation darstellt, {\"u}berarbeitet werden.}, language = {de} } @misc{Berg2012, type = {Master Thesis}, author = {Berg, Mascha}, title = {Laufzeitoptimierung der Robusten Perron Cluster Analyse (PCCA+)}, year = {2012}, language = {de} } @misc{OmariPloentzkeRoeblitz2019, author = {Omari, Mohamed and Pl{\"o}ntzke, Julia and R{\"o}blitz, Susanna}, title = {A pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic model for single dose administration of Dexamethasone in dairy cows}, issn = {1438-0064}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:0297-zib-75043}, year = {2019}, abstract = {We present a mechanistic pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic model to simulate the effect of dexamethasone on the glucose metabolism in dairy cows. The coupling of the pharmacokinetic model to the pharmacodynamic model is based on mechanisms underlying homeostasis regulation by dexamethasone. In particular, the coupling takes into account the predominant role of dexamethasone in stimulating glucagon secretion, glycogenolysis and lipolysis and in impairing the sensitivity of cells to insulin. Simulating the effect of a single dose of dexamethasone on the physiological behaviour of the system shows that the adopted mechanisms are able to induce a temporary hyperglycemia and hyperinsulinemia, which captures the observed data in non-lactating cows. In lactating cows, the model simulations show that a single dose of dexamethasone reduces the lipolytic effect, owing to the reduction of glucose uptake by the mammary gland.}, language = {en} } @misc{HelfmannDjurdjevacConradDjurdjevacetal.2019, author = {Helfmann, Luzie and Djurdjevac Conrad, Natasa and Djurdjevac, Ana and Winkelmann, Stefanie and Sch{\"u}tte, Christof}, title = {From interacting agents to density-based modeling with stochastic PDEs}, issn = {1438-0064}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:0297-zib-73456}, year = {2019}, abstract = {Many real-world processes can naturally be modeled as systems of interacting agents. However, the long-term simulation of such agent-based models is often intractable when the system becomes too large. In this paper, starting from a stochastic spatio-temporal agent-based model (ABM), we present a reduced model in terms of stochastic PDEs that describes the evolution of agent number densities for large populations. We discuss the algorithmic details of both approaches; regarding the SPDE model, we apply Finite Element discretization in space which not only ensures efficient simulation but also serves as a regularization of the SPDE. Illustrative examples for the spreading of an innovation among agents are given and used for comparing ABM and SPDE models.}, language = {en} } @misc{OmariLangePloentzkeetal.2019, author = {Omari, Mohamed and Lange, Alexander and Pl{\"o}ntzke, Julia and R{\"o}blitz, Susanna}, title = {A Mathematical Model for the Influence of Glucose-Insulin Dynamics on the Estrous Cycle in Dairy Cows}, issn = {1438-0064}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:0297-zib-73475}, year = {2019}, abstract = {Nutrition plays a crucial role in regulating reproductive hormones and follicular development in cattle. This is visible particularly during the time of negative energy balance at the onset of milk production after calving. Here, elongated periods of anovulation have been observed, resulting from alterations in luteiniz- ing hormone concentrations, likely caused by lower glucose and insulin concen- trations in the blood. The mechanisms that result in a reduced fertility are not completely understood, although a close relationship to the glucose-insulin metabolism is widely supported. Following this idea, a mathematical model of the hormonal network combining reproductive hormones and hormones that are coupled to the glucose compartments within the body of the cow was developed. The model is built on ordinary differential equations and relies on previously introduced models on the bovine estrous cycle and the glucose-insulin dynam- ics. Necessary modifications and coupling mechanisms are thoroughly discussed. Depending on the composition and the amount of food, in particular the glu- cose content in the dry matter, the model quantifies reproductive hormones and follicular development over time. Simulation results for different nutritional regimes in lactating and non-lactating dairy cows are examined and compared with experimental studies. Regarding its applicability, this work is an early attempt towards developing in silico feeding strategies and may eventually help refining and reducing animal experiments.}, language = {en} } @misc{StoetzelApriRoeblitz2014, author = {St{\"o}tzel, Claudia and Apri, Mochamad and R{\"o}blitz, Susanna}, title = {A reduced ODE model of the bovine estrous cycle}, issn = {1438-0064}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:0297-zib-51594}, year = {2014}, abstract = {This work deals with the reduction of a previously developed ODE model for the bovine estrous cycle. After applying a method for exploring the parameter space by Apri et al. (2012), we perform structure-based reduction steps and several system specific adaptations. Overall, the original model consisting of 15 ODEs and 60 parameters is reduced to a model of 10 odes and 38 parameters. The reduced model qualitatively reproduces the state trajectories of the original model.}, language = {en} } @misc{WinkelmannSchuette2017, author = {Winkelmann, Stefanie and Sch{\"u}tte, Christof}, title = {Hybrid Models for Chemical Reaction Networks: Multiscale Theory and Application to Gene Regulatory Systems}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:0297-zib-64264}, year = {2017}, abstract = {Well-mixed stochastic chemical kinetics are properly modelled by the chemical master equation (CME) and associated Markov jump processes in molecule number space. If the reactants are present in large amounts, however, corresponding simulations of the stochastic dynamics become computationally expensive and model reductions are demanded. The classical model reduction approach uniformly rescales the overall dynamics to obtain deterministic systems characterized by ordinary differential equations, the well-known mass action reaction rate equations. For systems with multiple scales there exist hybrid approaches that keep parts of the system discrete while another part is approximated either using Langevin dynamics or deterministically. This paper aims at giving a coherent overview of the different hybrid approaches, focusing on their basic concepts and the relation between them. We derive a novel general description of such hybrid models that allows to express various forms by one type of equation. We also check in how far the approaches apply to model extensions of the CME for dynamics which do not comply with the central well-mixed condition and require some spatial resolution. A simple but meaningful gene expression system with negative self-regulation is analysed to illustrate the different approximation qualities of some of the hybrid approaches discussed.}, language = {en} } @misc{LangeSchwiegerPloentzkeetal.2017, author = {Lange, Alexander and Schwieger, Robert and Pl{\"o}ntzke, Julia and Sch{\"a}fer, Stefan and R{\"o}blitz, Susanna}, title = {Follicular competition: the selection of dominant follicles as a synergistic effect}, issn = {1438-0064}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00285-018-1284-0}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:0297-zib-63863}, year = {2017}, abstract = {The estrous cycle of mono-ovulatory species such as cows or humans, is known to show two or more waves of follicular growth and decline between two successive ovulations. Within each wave, there is one dominant follicle escorted by subordinate follicles of varying number. Under the surge of the luteinizing hormone a growing dominant follicle ovulates. Rarely the number of ovulating follicles exceeds one. In the biological literature, the change of hormonal concentrations and individually varying numbers of follicular receptors are made responsible for the selection of exactly one dominant follicle, yet a clear cause has not been identified. In this paper, we suggest a synergistic explanation based on competition, formulated by a parsimoniously defined system of ordinary differential equations (ODEs) that quantifies the time evolution of multiple follicles and their competitive interaction during one wave. Not discriminating between follicles, growth and decline are given by fixed rates. Competition is introduced via a growth-suppressing term, equally supported by all follicles. We prove that the number of dominant follicles is determined exclusively by the ratio of follicular growth and competition. This number turns out to be independent of the number of subordinate follicles. The asymptotic behavior of the corresponding dynamical system is investigated rigorously, where we demonstrate that the omega-limit set only contains fixed points. When also including follicular decline, our ODEs perfectly resemble ultrasound data of bovine follicles. Implications for the involved but not explicitly modeled hormones are discussed.}, language = {en} } @misc{KlebanovSikorskiSchuetteetal.2016, author = {Klebanov, Ilja and Sikorski, Alexander and Sch{\"u}tte, Christof and R{\"o}blitz, Susanna}, title = {Prior estimation and Bayesian inference from large cohort data sets}, issn = {1438-0064}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:0297-zib-57475}, year = {2016}, abstract = {One of the main goals of mathematical modelling in systems biology related to medical applications is to obtain patient-specific parameterisations and model predictions. In clinical practice, however, the number of available measurements for single patients is usually limited due to time and cost restrictions. This hampers the process of making patient-specific predictions about the outcome of a treatment. On the other hand, data are often available for many patients, in particular if extensive clinical studies have been performed. Using these population data, we propose an iterative algorithm for contructing an informative prior distribution, which then serves as the basis for computing patient-specific posteriors and obtaining individual predictions. We demonsrate the performance of our method by applying it to a low-dimensional parameter estimation problem in a toy model as well as to a high-dimensional ODE model of the human menstrual cycle, which represents a typical example from systems biology modelling.}, language = {en} } @misc{Dierkes2015, author = {Dierkes, Thomas}, title = {Construction of ODE systems from time series data by a highly flexible modelling approach}, issn = {1438-0064}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:0297-zib-56768}, year = {2015}, abstract = {In this paper, a down-to-earth approach to purely data-based modelling of unknown dynamical systems is presented. Starting from a classical, explicit ODE formulation y=f(t,y) of a dynamical system, a method determining the unknown right-hand side f(t,y) from some trajectory data y_k(t_j), possibly very sparse, is given. As illustrative examples, a semi-standard predator-prey model is reconstructed from a data set describing the population numbers of hares and lynxes over a period of twenty years [1], and a simple damped pendulum system with a highly non-linear right-hand side is recovered from some artificial but very sparse data [2].}, language = {en} }