@misc{Nielsen, author = {Nielsen, Adam}, title = {The Monte Carlo Computation Error of Transition Probabilities}, issn = {1438-0064}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:0297-zib-59933}, abstract = {In many applications one is interested to compute transition probabilities of a Markov chain. This can be achieved by using Monte Carlo methods with local or global sampling points. In this article, we analyze the error by the difference in the \$L^2\$ norm between the true transition probabilities and the approximation achieved through a Monte Carlo method. We give a formula for the error for Markov chains with locally computed sampling points. Further, in the case of reversible Markov chains, we will deduce a formula for the error when sampling points are computed globally. We will see that in both cases the error itself can be approximated with Monte Carlo methods. As a consequence of the result, we will derive surprising properties of reversible Markov chains.}, language = {en} }