@misc{RiedmuellerBuchholzZittel2025, author = {Riedm{\"u}ller, Stephanie and Buchholz, Annika and Zittel, Janina}, title = {Enhancing Multi-Energy Modeling: The Role of Mixed-Integer Optimization Decisions}, issn = {1438-0064}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:0297-zib-100329}, year = {2025}, abstract = {The goal to decarbonize the energy sector has led to increased research in modeling and optimizing multi-energy systems. One of the most promising and popular techniques for modeling and solving (multi-)energy optimization problems is (multi-objective) mixed-integer programming, valued for its ability to represent the complexities of integrated energy systems. While the literature often focuses on deriving mathematical formulations and parameter settings, less attention is given to critical post-formulation decisions. Modeling multi-energy systems as mixed-integer linear optimization programs demands decisions across multiple degrees of freedom. Key steps include reducing a real-world multi energy network into an abstract topology, defining variables, formulating the relevant (in-)equalities to represent technical requirements, setting (multiple) objectives, and integrating these elements into a mixed-integer program (MIP). However, with these elements fixed, the specific transformation of the abstract topology into a graph structure and the construction of the MIP remain non-uniquely. These choices can significantly impact user-friendliness, problem size, and computational efficiency, thus affecting the feasibility and efficiency of modeling efforts. In this work, we identify and analyze the additional degrees of freedom and describe two distinct approaches to address them. The approaches are compared regarding mathematical equivalence, suitability for solution algorithms, and clarity of the underlying topology. A case study on a realistic subarea of Berlin's district heating network involving tri-objective optimization for a unit commitment problem demonstrates the practical significance of these decisions. By highlighting these critical yet often overlooked aspects, our work equips energy system modelers with insights to improve computational efficiency, scalability, and interpretability in their optimization efforts, ultimately enhancing the practicality and effectiveness of multi-energy system models.}, language = {en} } @inproceedings{RiedmuellerBuchholzZittel2025, author = {Riedm{\"u}ller, Stephanie and Buchholz, Annika and Zittel, Janina}, title = {Enhancing Multi-Energy Modeling: The Role of Mixed-Integer Optimization Decisions}, booktitle = {The 38th International Conference on Efficiency, Cost, Optimization, Simulation and Environmental Impact of Energy Systems - ECOS 2025}, arxiv = {http://arxiv.org/abs/2505.14492}, year = {2025}, abstract = {The goal to decarbonize the energy sector has led to increased research in modeling and optimizing multi-energy systems. One of the most promising and popular techniques for modeling and solving (multi-)energy optimization problems is (multi-objective) mixed-integer programming, valued for its ability to represent the complexities of integrated energy systems. While the literature often focuses on deriving mathematical formulations and parameter settings, less attention is given to critical post-formulation decisions. Modeling multi-energy systems as mixed-integer linear optimization programs demands decisions across multiple degrees of freedom. Key steps include reducing a real-world multi energy network into an abstract topology, defining variables, formulating the relevant (in-)equalities to represent technical requirements, setting (multiple) objectives, and integrating these elements into a mixed-integer program (MIP). However, with these elements fixed, the specific transformation of the abstract topology into a graph structure and the construction of the MIP remain non-uniquely. These choices can significantly impact user-friendliness, problem size, and computational efficiency, thus affecting the feasibility and efficiency of modeling efforts. In this work, we identify and analyze the additional degrees of freedom and describe two distinct approaches to address them. The approaches are compared regarding mathematical equivalence, suitability for solution algorithms, and clarity of the underlying topology. A case study on a realistic subarea of Berlin's district heating network involving tri-objective optimization for a unit commitment problem demonstrates the practical significance of these decisions. By highlighting these critical yet often overlooked aspects, our work equips energy system modelers with insights to improve computational efficiency, scalability, and interpretability in their optimization efforts, ultimately enhancing the practicality and effectiveness of multi-energy system models.}, language = {en} } @misc{MehlLindnerBartoszuketal.2025, author = {Mehl, Lukas and Lindner, Niels and Bartoszuk, Karolina and Zittel, Janina}, title = {Prototypical warm-starts for demand-robust LP-based energy system optimization}, issn = {1438-0064}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:0297-zib-101242}, year = {2025}, abstract = {The expressiveness of energy system optimization models (ESOMs) depends on a multitude of exogenous parameters. For example, sound estimates of the future energy demand are essential to enable qualified decisions on long-term investments. However, the enormous demand fluctuations even on a fine-grained scale diminish the computational performance of large-scale ESOMs. We therefore propose a clustering-and-decomposition method for linear programming based ESOMs that first identifies and solves prototypical demand scenarios with the dual simplex algorithm, and then composes dual optimal prototype bases to a warm-start basis for the full model. We evaluate the feasibility and computational efficiency our approach on a real-world case study, using a sector-coupled ESOM with hourly resolution for the Berlin-Brandenburg area in Germany, based on the oemof framework.}, language = {en} } @misc{RiedmuellerZittelKoch2025, author = {Riedm{\"u}ller, Stephanie and Zittel, Janina and Koch, Thorsten}, title = {Warm-starting Strategies in Scalarization Methods for Multi-Objective Optimization}, issn = {1438-0064}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:0297-zib-101073}, year = {2025}, abstract = {We explore how warm-starting strategies can be integrated into scalarization-based approaches for multi-objective optimization in (mixed) integer linear programming. Scalarization methods remain widely used classical techniques to compute Pareto-optimal solutions in applied settings. They are favored due to their algorithmic simplicity and broad applicability across continuous and integer programs with an arbitrary number of objectives. While warm-starting has been applied in this context before, a systematic methodology and analysis remain lacking. We address this gap by providing a theoretical characterization of warm-starting within scalarization methods, focusing on the sequencing of subproblems. However, optimizing the order of subproblems to maximize warm-start efficiency may conflict with alternative criteria, such as early identification of infeasible regions. We quantify these trade-offs through an extensive computational study.}, language = {en} } @article{PetkovicZittel2025, author = {Petkovic, Milena and Zittel, Janina}, title = {Leveraging Transfer Learning to Overcome Data Limitations in Czochralski Crystal Growth}, volume = {8}, journal = {Advanced Theory and Simulations}, number = {11}, doi = {10.1002/adts.202500677}, year = {2025}, language = {en} } @misc{RiedmuellerRivettaZittel2024, author = {Riedm{\"u}ller, Stephanie and Rivetta, Fabian and Zittel, Janina}, title = {Long-Term Multi-Objective Optimization for Integrated Unit Commitment and Investment Planning for District Heating Networks}, issn = {1438-0064}, doi = {10.1007/978-3-031-92575-7_33}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:0297-zib-97804}, year = {2024}, abstract = {The need to decarbonize the energy system has intensified the focus on district heating networks in urban and suburban areas. Therefore, exploring transformation pathways with reasonable trade-offs between economic viability and environmental goals became necessary. We introduce a network-flow-based model class integrating unit commitment and long-term investment planning for multi-energy systems. While the integration of unit commitment and investment planning has been applied to multi-energy systems, a formal introduction and suitability for the application of long-term portfolio planning of an energy provider on an urban scale has yet to be met. Based on mixed integer linear programming, the model bridges the gap between overly detailed industrial modeling tools not designed for computational efficiency at scale and rather abstract academic models. The formulation is tested on Berlin's district heating network. Hence, the challenge lies in a large number of variables and constraints and the coupling of time steps, for example, through investment decisions. A case study explores different solutions on the Pareto front defined by optimal trade-offs between minimizing costs and emissions through a lexicographic optimization approach. The resulting solution catalog can provide decision-makers valuable insights into feasible transformation pathways, highlighting distinctions between robust and target-dependent investments.}, language = {en} } @misc{LindnerBartoszukDebguptaetal.2024, author = {Lindner, Niels and Bartoszuk, Karolina and Debgupta, Srinwanti and Gering, Marie-Claire and Muschner, Christoph and Zittel, Janina}, title = {Warm-starting modeling to generate alternatives for energy transition paths in the Berlin-Brandenburg area}, issn = {1438-0064}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:0297-zib-97835}, year = {2024}, abstract = {Energy system optimization models are key to investigate energy transition paths towards a decarbonized future. Since this approach comes with intrinsic uncertainties, it is insufficient to compute a single optimal solution assuming perfect foresight to provide a profound basis for decision makers. The paradigm of modeling to generate alternatives enables to explore the near-optimal solution space to a certain extent. However, large-scale energy models require a non-negligible computation time to be solved. We propose to use warm start methods to accelerate the process of finding close-to-optimal alternatives. In an extensive case study for the energy transition of the Berlin-Brandenburg area, we make use of the sector-coupled linear programming oemof-B3 model to analyze a scenario for the year 2050 with a resolution of one hour and 100\% reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. We demonstrate that we can actually achieve a significant computational speedup.}, language = {en} } @inproceedings{MuschnerYuekselErguenGeringetal.2024, author = {Muschner, Christoph and Y{\"u}ksel-Erg{\"u}n, Inci and Gering, Marie-Claire and Bartoszuk, Karolina and Haas, Sabine and Zittel, Janina}, title = {Sensitivity analysis of the energy transition path in the Berlin-Brandenburg area to uncertainties in operational and investment costs of diverse energy production technologies}, booktitle = {37th International Conference on Efficiency, Cost, Optimization, Simulation and Environmental Impact of Energy Systems (ECOS 2024)}, doi = {10.52202/077185-0115}, pages = {1339 -- 1350}, year = {2024}, abstract = {The investigation of energy transition paths toward a sustainable and decarbonized future under uncertainty is a critical aspect of contemporary energy planning and policy development. There are numerous methods for analysing uncertainties and sensitivities and many studies on sustainable transformation paths, but there is a lack of combined application to relevant use-cases. In this study, we investigate the sensitivity of energy transition paths to uncertainties in operational and investment costs of power plants in the metropolitan area of Berlin and its rural surroundings. By employing the linear programming energy system model oemof-B3, we extensively focus on the system's energy technologies, such as wind turbines, photovoltaics, hydro and combustion plants, and energy storages. Greenhouse gas reduction and electrification rates per commodity are realized by selected constraints. Our research aims to discern how investments in energy production capacities are influenced by uncertainties of other energy technologies' investment and operational costs in the system. We apply a quantitative approach to investigate such interdependencies of cost variations and their impact on long-term energy planning. Thus, the analysis sheds light on the robustness of energy transition paths in the face of these uncertainties. The region Berlin-Brandenburg serves as a case study and thus reflects on the present space conflicts to meet energy demands in urban and suburban areas and their rural surroundings. An electricity-intensive scenario is selected that assumes a 100 \% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. With the results of the case study, we show how our approach enables rural and metropolitan decision-makers to collaborate in achieving sustainable energy. Decision-making in long-term energy planning can be made more robust and flexible by acknowledging the identified sensitivities and enable such regions better to navigate challenges and uncertainties associated with sustainable energy planning.}, language = {en} } @article{PedersenLeKochetal.2024, author = {Pedersen, Jaap and Le, Thi Thai and Koch, Thorsten and Zittel, Janina}, title = {Optimal discrete pipe sizing for tree-shaped CO2 networks}, volume = {46}, journal = {OR Spectrum}, doi = {10.1007/s00291-024-00773-z}, pages = {1163 -- 1187}, year = {2024}, abstract = {For industries like the cement industry, switching to a carbon-neutral production process is impossible. They must rely on carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) technologies to reduce their production processes' inevitable carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. For transporting continuously large amounts of CO2, utilizing a pipeline network is the most effective solution; however, building such a network is expensive. Therefore minimizing the cost of the pipelines to be built is extremely important to make the operation financially feasible. In this context, we investigate the problem of finding optimal pipeline diameters from a discrete set of diameters for a tree-shaped network transporting captured CO2 from multiple sources to a single sink. The general problem of optimizing arc capacities in potential-based fluid networks is already a challenging mixed-integer nonlinear optimization problem. The problem becomes even more complex when adding the highly sensitive nonlinear behavior of CO2 regarding temperature and pressure changes. We propose an iterative algorithm splitting the problem into two parts: a) the pipe-sizing problem under a fixed supply scenario and temperature distribution and b) the thermophysical modeling, including mixing effects, the Joule-Thomson effect, and heat exchange with the surrounding environment. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach by applying our algorithm to a real-world network planning problem for a CO2 network in Western Germany. Further, we show the robustness of the algorithm by solving a large artificially created set of network instances.}, language = {en} } @misc{YuekselErguenKochZittel2024, author = {Yueksel-Erguen, Inci and Koch, Thorsten and Zittel, Janina}, title = {Mathematical optimization based flow scenario generation for operational analysis of European gas transport networks based on open data}, issn = {1438-0064}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:0297-zib-95789}, year = {2024}, abstract = {The decarbonization of the European energy system demands a rapid and comprehensive transformation while securing energy supplies at all times. Still, natural gas plays a crucial role in this process. Recent unexpected events forced drastic changes in gas routes throughout Europe. Therefore, operational-level analysis of the gas transport networks and technical capacities to cope with these transitions using unconventional scenarios has become essential. Unfortunately, data limitations often hinder such analyses. To overcome this challenge, we propose a mathematical model-based scenario generator that enables operational analysis of the European gas network using open data. Our approach focuses on the consistent analysis of specific partitions of the gas transport network, whose network topology data is readily available. We generate reproducible and consistent node-based gas in/out-flow scenarios for these defined network partitions to enable feasibility analysis and data quality assessment. Our proposed method is demonstrated through several applications that address the feasibility analysis and data quality assessment of the German gas transport network. By using open data and a mathematical modeling approach, our method allows for a more comprehensive understanding of the gas transport network's behavior and assists in decision-making during the transition to decarbonization.}, language = {en} } @inproceedings{ZittelClarnerTawfiketal.2024, author = {Zittel, Janina and Clarner, Jan-Patrick and Tawfik, Christine and Dykes, Maxwell and Rivetta, Fabian and Riedm{\"u}ller, Stephanie}, title = {A multi-objective optimization strategy for district heating production portfolio planning}, booktitle = {37th International Conference on Efficiency, Cost, Optimization, Simulation and Environmental Impact of Energy Systems (ECOS 2024)}, doi = {10.52202/077185-0066}, pages = {764 -- 775}, year = {2024}, abstract = {The imperative to decarbonize energy systems has intensified the need for efficient transformations within the heating sector, with a particular focus on district heating networks. This study addresses this challenge by proposing a comprehensive optimization approach evaluated on the district heating network of the M{\"a}rkisches Viertel of Berlin. Our objective is to simultaneously optimize heat production with three targets: minimizing costs, minimizing CO2-emissions, and maximizing heat generation from Combined Heat and Power (CHP) plants for enhanced efficiency. To tackle this optimization problem, we employed a Mixed-Integer Linear Program (MILP) that encompasses the conversion of various fuels into heat and power, integration with relevant markets, and considerations for technical constraints on power plant operation. These constraints include startup and minimum downtime, activation costs, and storage limits. The ultimate goal is to delineate the Pareto front, representing the optimal trade-offs between the three targets. We evaluate variants of the 𝜖-constraint algorithm for their effectiveness in coordinating these objectives, with a simultaneous focus on the quality of the estimated Pareto front and computational efficiency. One algorithm explores solutions on an evenly spaced grid in the objective space, while another dynamically adjusts the grid based on identified solutions. Initial findings highlight the strengths and limitations of each algorithm, providing guidance on algorithm selection depending on desired outcomes and computational constraints. Our study emphasizes that the optimal choice of algorithm hinges on the density and distribution of solutions in the feasible space. Whether solutions are clustered or evenly distributed significantly influences algorithm performance. These insights contribute to a nuanced understanding of algorithm selection for multi-objective multi-energy system optimization, offering valuable guidance for future research and practical applications for planning sustainable district heating networks.}, language = {en} } @misc{CaoAndersonBoehmeetal.2023, author = {Cao, Karl-Kien and Anderson, Lovis and B{\"o}hme, Aileen and Breuer, Thomas and Buschmann, Jan and Fiand, Frederick and Frey, Ulrich and Fuchs, Benjamin and Kempe, Nils-Christian and von Krbek, Kai and Medjroubi, Wided and Riehm, Judith and Sasanpour, Shima and Simon, Sonja and Vanaret, Charlie and Wetzel, Manuel and Xiao, Mengzhu and Zittel, Janina}, title = {Evaluation of Uncertainties in Linear-Optimizing Energy System Models - Compendium}, journal = {DLR-Forschungsbericht}, number = {DLR-FB-2023-15}, doi = {10.57676/w2rq-bj85}, pages = {95}, year = {2023}, abstract = {F{\"u}r die Energiesystemforschung sind Software-Modelle ein Kernelement zur Analyse von Szenarien. Das Forschungsprojekt UNSEEN hatte das Ziel eine bisher unerreichte Anzahl an modellbasierten Energieszenarien zu berechnen, um Unsicherheiten - vor allem unter Nutzung linear optimierender Energiesystem-Modelle - besser bewerten zu k{\"o}nnen. Hierf{\"u}r wurden umfangreiche Parametervariationen auf Energieszenarien angewendet und das wesentliche methodische Hindernis in diesem Zusammenhang adressiert: die rechnerische Beherrschbarkeit der zu l{\"o}senden mathematischen Optimierungsprobleme. Im Vorl{\"a}uferprojekt BEAM-ME wurde mit der Entwicklung und Anwendung des Open-Source-L{\"o}sers PIPS-IPM++ die Grundlage f{\"u}r den Einsatz von High-Performance-Computing (HPC) zur L{\"o}sung dieser Modelle gelegt. In UNSEEN war dieser L{\"o}ser die zentrale Komponente eines Workflows, welcher zur Generierung, L{\"o}sung und multi-kriteriellen Bewertung von Energieszenarien auf dem Hochleistungscomputer JUWELS am Forschungszentrum J{\"u}lich implementiert wurde. Zur effizienten Generierung und Kommunikation von Modellinstanzen f{\"u}r Methoden der mathematischen Optimierung auf HPC wurde eine weitere Workflow-Komponente von der GAMS Software GmbH entwickelt: der Szenariogenerator. Bei der Weiterentwicklung von L{\"o}sungsalgorithmen f{\"u}r linear optimierende Energie-Systemmodelle standen gemischt-ganzzahlige Optimierungsprobleme im Fokus, welche f{\"u}r die Modellierung konkreter Infrastrukturen und Maßnahmen zur Umsetzung der Energiewende gel{\"o}st werden m{\"u}ssen. Die in diesem Zusammenhang stehenden Arbeiten zur Entwicklung von Algorithmen wurden von der Technischen Universit{\"a}t Berlin verantwortet. Bei Design und Implementierung dieser Methoden wurde sie vom Zuse Instituts Berlin unterst{\"u}tzt.}, language = {en} } @misc{PetkovicZakiyevaZittel2021, author = {Petkovic, Milena and Zakiyeva, Nazgul and Zittel, Janina}, title = {Statistical analysis and modeling for detecting regime changes in gas nomination time series}, issn = {1438-0064}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:0297-zib-82988}, year = {2021}, abstract = {As a result of the legislation for gas markets introduced by the European Union in 2005, separate independent companies have to conduct the transport and trading of natural gas. The current gas market of Germany, which has a market value of more than 54 billion USD, consists of Transmission System Operators (TSO), network users, and traders. Traders can nominate a certain amount of gas anytime and anywhere in the network. Such unrestricted access for the traders, on the other hand, increase the uncertainty in the gas supply management. Some customers' behaviors may cause abrupt structural changes in gas flow time series. In particular, it is a challenging task for the TSO operators to predict gas nominations 6 to 10 hours ahead. In our study, we aim to investigate the regime changes in the time series of nominations to predict the 6 to 10 hours ahead of gas nominations.}, language = {en} } @article{PetkovicChenGamrathetal.2022, author = {Petkovic, Milena and Chen, Ying and Gamrath, Inken and Gotzes, Uwe and Hadjidimitrou, Natalia Selini and Zittel, Janina and Xu, Xiaofei and Koch, Thorsten}, title = {A hybrid approach for high precision prediction of gas flows}, volume = {13}, journal = {Energy Systems}, doi = {10.1007/s12667-021-00466-4}, pages = {383 -- 408}, year = {2022}, abstract = {About 23\% of the German energy demand is supplied by natural gas. Additionally, for about the same amount Germany serves as a transit country. Thereby, the German network represents a central hub in the European natural gas transport network. The transport infrastructure is operated by transmissions system operators (TSOs). The number one priority of the TSOs is to ensure the security of supply. However, the TSOs have only very limited knowledge about the intentions and planned actions of the shippers (traders). Open Grid Europe (OGE), one of Germany's largest TSO, operates a high-pressure transport network of about 12,000 km length. With the introduction of peak-load gas power stations, it is of great importance to predict in- and out-flow of the network to ensure the necessary flexibility and security of supply for the German Energy Transition ("Energiewende"). In this paper, we introduce a novel hybrid forecast method applied to gas flows at the boundary nodes of a transport network. This method employs an optimized feature selection and minimization. We use a combination of a FAR, LSTM and mathematical programming to achieve robust high-quality forecasts on real-world data for different types of network nodes.}, language = {en} } @inproceedings{PedersenHoppmannBaumZitteletal.2022, author = {Pedersen, Jaap and Hoppmann-Baum, Kai and Zittel, Janina and Koch, Thorsten}, title = {Blending hydrogen into natural gas: An assessment of the capacity of the German gas grid}, booktitle = {Operations Research Proceedings 2021}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-08623-6_28}, pages = {182 -- 187}, year = {2022}, abstract = {In the transition towards a pure hydrogen infrastructure, repurposing the existing natural gas infrastructure is considered. In this study, the maximal technically feasible injection of hydrogen into the existing German natural gas transmission network is analysed with respect to regulatory limits regarding the gas quality. We propose a transient tracking model based on the general pooling problem including linepack. The analysis is conducted using real-world hourly gas flow data on a network of about 10,000 km length.}, language = {en} } @article{PetkovicKochZittel2021, author = {Petkovic, Milena and Koch, Thorsten and Zittel, Janina}, title = {Deep learning for spatio-temporal supply anddemand forecasting in natural gas transmission networks}, journal = {Energy Science and Engineering}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1002/ese3.932}, year = {2021}, abstract = {Germany is the largest market for natural gas in the European Union, with an annual consumption of approx. 95 billion cubic meters. Germany's high-pressure gas pipeline network is roughly 40,000 km long, which enables highly fluctuating quantities of gas to be transported safely over long distances. Considering that similar amounts of gas are also transshipped through Germany to other EU states, it is clear that Germany's gas transport system is essential to the European energy supply. Since the average velocity of gas in a pipeline is only 25km/h, an adequate high-precision, high-frequency forecasting of supply and demand is crucial for efficient control and operation of such a transmission network. We propose a deep learning model based on spatio-temporal convolutional neural networks (DLST) to tackle the problem of gas flow forecasting in a complex high-pressure transmission network. Experiments show that our model effectively captures comprehensive spatio-temporal correlations through modeling gas networks and consistently outperforms state-of-the-art benchmarks on real-world data sets by at least 21\%. The results demonstrate that the proposed model can deal with complex nonlinear gas network flow forecasting with high accuracy and effectiveness.}, language = {en} } @misc{PedersenHoppmannBaumZitteletal.2021, author = {Pedersen, Jaap and Hoppmann-Baum, Kai and Zittel, Janina and Koch, Thorsten}, title = {Blending hydrogen into natural gas: An assessment of the capacity of the German gas grid; Technical Report}, issn = {1438-0064}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:0297-zib-82838}, year = {2021}, abstract = {In the transition towards a pure hydrogen infrastructure, utilizing the existing natural gas infrastructure is a necessity. In this study, the maximal technically feasible injection of hydrogen into the existing German natural gas transmission network is analysed with respect to regulatory limits regarding the gas quality. We propose a transient tracking model based on the general pooling problem including linepack. The analysis is conducted using real-world hourly gas flow data on a network of about 10,000 km length.}, language = {en} } @misc{PetkovicChenGamrathetal.2019, author = {Petkovic, Milena and Chen, Ying and Gamrath, Inken and Gotzes, Uwe and Hadjidimitriou, Natalia Selini and Zittel, Janina and Xu, Xiaofei and Koch, Thorsten}, title = {A Hybrid Approach for High Precision Prediction of Gas Flows}, issn = {1438-0064}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:0297-zib-73525}, year = {2019}, abstract = {About 20\% of the German energy demand is supplied by natural gas. Ad- ditionally, for about twice the amount Germany serves as a transit country. Thereby, the German network represents a central hub in the European natural gas transport network. The transport infrastructure is operated by so-called transmissions system operators or TSOs. The number one priority of the TSOs is to ensure security of supply. However, the TSOs have no knowledge of the intentions and planned actions of the shippers (traders). Open Grid Europe (OGE), one of Germany's largest TSO, operates a high- pressure transport network of about 12.000 km length. Since flexibility and security of supply is of utmost importance to the German Energy Transition ("Energiewende") especially with the introduction of peak-load gas power stations, being able to predict in- and out-flow of the network is of great importance. In this paper we introduce a new hybrid forecast method applied to gas flows at the boundary nodes of a transport network. The new method employs optimized feature minimization and selection. We use a combination of an FAR, LSTM DNN and mathematical programming to achieve robust high quality forecasts on real world data for different types of network nodes. Keywords: Gas Forecast, Time series, Hybrid Method, FAR, LSTM, Mathematical Optimisation}, language = {en} } @inproceedings{RiedmuellerRivettaZittel2025, author = {Riedm{\"u}ller, Stephanie and Rivetta, Fabian and Zittel, Janina}, title = {Long-Term Multi-Objective Optimization for Integrated Unit Commitment and Investment Planning for District Heating Networks}, booktitle = {Operations Research Proceedings 2024}, publisher = {Springer Cham}, arxiv = {http://arxiv.org/abs/2410.06673}, doi = {10.1007/978-3-031-92575-7_33}, pages = {235 -- 241}, year = {2025}, abstract = {The need to decarbonize the energy system has intensified the focus on district heating networks in urban and suburban areas. Therefore, exploring transformation pathways with reasonable trade-offs between economic viability and environmental goals became necessary. We introduce a network-flow-based model class integrating unit commitment and long-term investment planning for multi-energy systems. While the integration of unit commitment and investment planning has been applied to multi-energy systems, a formal introduction and suitability for the application of long-term portfolio planning of an energy provider on an urban scale has yet to be met. Based on mixed integer linear programming, the model bridges the gap between overly detailed industrial modeling tools not designed for computational efficiency at scale and rather abstract academic models. The formulation is tested on Berlin's district heating network. Hence, the challenge lies in a large number of variables and constraints and the coupling of time steps, for example, through investment decisions. A case study explores different solutions on the Pareto front defined by optimal trade-offs between minimizing costs and CO2 emissions through a lexicographic optimization approach. The resulting solution catalog can provide decision-makers valuable insights into feasible transformation pathways, highlighting distinctions between robust and target-dependent investments.}, language = {en} } @inproceedings{PetkovicZittel2025, author = {Petkovic, Milena and Zittel, Janina}, title = {Resilient Forecasting of High-Dimensional Network Time Series in the Energy Domain: A Hybrid Approach}, booktitle = {Operations Research Proceedings 2023. OR 2023}, publisher = {Springer}, doi = {10.1007/978-3-031-58405-3_48}, pages = {375 -- 381}, year = {2025}, abstract = {Energy systems are complex networks consisting of various interconnected components. Accurate energy demand and supply forecasts are crucial for efficient system operation and decision-making. However, high-dimensional data, complex network structures, and dynamic changes and disruptions in energy networks pose significant challenges for forecasting models. To address this, we propose a hybrid approach for resilient forecasting of network time series (HRF-NTS) in the energy domain. Our approach combines mathematical optimization methods with state-of-the-art machine learning techniques to achieve accurate and robust forecasts for high-dimensional energy network time series. We incorporate an optimization framework to account for uncertainties and disruptive changes in the energy system. The effectiveness of the proposed approach is demonstrated through a case study of forecasting energy demand and supply in a complex, large-scale natural gas transmission network. The results show that the hybrid approach outperforms alternative prediction models in terms of accuracy and resilience to structural changes and disruptions, providing stable, multi-step ahead forecasts for different short to mid-term forecasting horizons.}, language = {en} }