@misc{LieSullivanTeckentrup, author = {Lie, Han Cheng and Sullivan, T. J. and Teckentrup, Aretha}, title = {Random forward models and log-likelihoods in Bayesian inverse problems}, series = {SIAM/ASA Journal on Uncertainty Quantification}, volume = {6}, journal = {SIAM/ASA Journal on Uncertainty Quantification}, number = {4}, issn = {1438-0064}, doi = {10.1137/18M1166523}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:0297-zib-66324}, pages = {1600 -- 1629}, abstract = {We consider the use of randomised forward models and log-likelihoods within the Bayesian approach to inverse problems. Such random approximations to the exact forward model or log-likelihood arise naturally when a computationally expensive model is approximated using a cheaper stochastic surrogate, as in Gaussian process emulation (kriging), or in the field of probabilistic numerical methods. We show that the Hellinger distance between the exact and approximate Bayesian posteriors is bounded by moments of the difference between the true and approximate log-likelihoods. Example applications of these stability results are given for randomised misfit models in large data applications and the probabilistic solution of ordinary differential equations.}, language = {en} } @misc{NavaYazdaniHegevonTycowiczetal., author = {Nava-Yazdani, Esfandiar and Hege, Hans-Christian and von Tycowicz, Christoph and Sullivan, T. J.}, title = {A Shape Trajectories Approach to Longitudinal Statistical Analysis}, issn = {1438-0064}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:0297-zib-69759}, abstract = {For Kendall's shape space we determine analytically Jacobi fields and parallel transport, and compute geodesic regression. Using the derived expressions, we can fully leverage the geometry via Riemannian optimization and reduce the computational expense by several orders of magnitude. The methodology is demonstrated by performing a longitudinal statistical analysis of epidemiological shape data. As application example we have chosen 3D shapes of knee bones, reconstructed from image data of the Osteoarthritis Initiative. Comparing subject groups with incident and developing osteoarthritis versus normal controls, we find clear differences in the temporal development of femur shapes. This paves the way for early prediction of incident knee osteoarthritis, using geometry data only.}, language = {en} }