@article{SherrattSrivastavaAinslieetal.2024, author = {Sherratt, Katharine and Srivastava, Ajitesh and Ainslie, Kylie and Singh, David E. and Cublier, Aymar and Marinescu, Maria Cristina and Carretero, Jesus and Garcia, Alberto Cascajo and Franco, Nicolas and Willem, Lander and Abrams, Steven and Faes, Christel and Beutels, Philippe and Hens, Niel and M{\"u}ller, Sebastian and Charlton, Billy and Ewert, Ricardo and Paltra, Sydney and Rakow, Christian and Rehmann, Jakob and Conrad, Tim and Sch{\"u}tte, Christof and Nagel, Kai and Abbott, Sam and Grah, Rok and Niehus, Rene and Prasse, Bastian and Sandmann, Frank and Funk, Sebastian}, title = {Characterising information gains and losses when collecting multiple epidemic model outputs}, volume = {47}, journal = {Epidemics}, publisher = {Elsevier BV}, issn = {1755-4365}, doi = {10.1016/j.epidem.2024.100765}, year = {2024}, abstract = {Collaborative comparisons and combinations of epidemic models are used as policy-relevant evidence during epidemic outbreaks. In the process of collecting multiple model projections, such collaborations may gain or lose relevant information. Typically, modellers contribute a probabilistic summary at each time-step. We compared this to directly collecting simulated trajectories. We aimed to explore information on key epidemic quantities; ensemble uncertainty; and performance against data, investigating potential to continuously gain information from a single cross-sectional collection of model results. Methods We compared July 2022 projections from the European COVID-19 Scenario Modelling Hub. Five modelling teams projected incidence in Belgium, the Netherlands, and Spain. We compared projections by incidence, peaks, and cumulative totals. We created a probabilistic ensemble drawn from all trajectories, and compared to ensembles from a median across each model's quantiles, or a linear opinion pool. We measured the predictive accuracy of individual trajectories against observations, using this in a weighted ensemble. We repeated this sequentially against increasing weeks of observed data. We evaluated these ensembles to reflect performance with varying observed data. Results. By collecting modelled trajectories, we showed policy-relevant epidemic characteristics. Trajectories contained a right-skewed distribution well represented by an ensemble of trajectories or a linear opinion pool, but not models' quantile intervals. Ensembles weighted by performance typically retained the range of plausible incidence over time, and in some cases narrowed this by excluding some epidemic shapes. Conclusions. We observed several information gains from collecting modelled trajectories rather than quantile distributions, including potential for continuously updated information from a single model collection. The value of information gains and losses may vary with each collaborative effort's aims, depending on the needs of projection users. Understanding the differing information potential of methods to collect model projections can support the accuracy, sustainability, and communication of collaborative infectious disease modelling efforts. Data availability All code and data available on Github: https://github.com/covid19-forecast-hub-europe/aggregation-info-loss}, language = {en} } @article{MartinMuellerPapeetal.2017, author = {Martin, Alex and M{\"u}ller, J. and Pape, S. and Peter, A. and Pokutta, Sebastian and Winter, T.}, title = {Pricing and clearing combinatorial markets with singleton and swap orders}, volume = {85}, journal = {Mathematical Methods of Operations Research}, number = {2}, arxiv = {http://arxiv.org/abs/1404.6546}, pages = {155 -- 177}, year = {2017}, language = {en} } @article{MartinMuellerPokutta2014, author = {Martin, Alexander and M{\"u}ller, J. and Pokutta, Sebastian}, title = {Strict linear prices in non-convex European day-ahead electricity markets}, volume = {29}, journal = {Optimization Methods and Software}, number = {1}, pages = {189 -- 221}, year = {2014}, language = {en} } @inproceedings{GesingGrunzkeBalaskoetal.2011, author = {Gesing, Sandra and Grunzke, Richard and Balasko, Akos and Birkenheuer, Georg and Blunk, Dirk and Breuers, Sebastian and Brinkmann, Andr{\´e} and Fels, Gregor and Herres-Pawlis, Sonja and Kacsuk, Peter and Kozlovszky, Miklos and Kr{\"u}ger, Jens and Packschies, Lars and Sch{\"a}fer, Patrick and Schuller, Bernd and Schuster, Johannes and Steinke, Thomas and Szikszay Fabri, Anna and Wewior, Martin and M{\"u}ller-Pfefferkorn, Ralph and Kohlbacher, Oliver}, title = {Granular Security for a Science Gateway in Structural Bioinformatics}, booktitle = {Proc. IWSG-Life 2011}, year = {2011}, language = {en} } @inproceedings{BirkenheuerBlunkBreuersetal.2011, author = {Birkenheuer, Georg and Blunk, Dirk and Breuers, Sebastian and Brinkmann, Andre and Fels, Gregor and Gesing, Sandra and Grunzke, Richard and Herres-Pawlis, Sonja and Kohlbacher, Oliver and Kr{\"u}ger, Jens and Lang, Ulrich and Packschies, Lars and M{\"u}ller-Pfefferkorn, Ralph and Sch{\"a}fer, Patrick and Schuster, Johannes and Steinke, Thomas and Warzecha, Klaus Dieter and Wewior, Martin}, title = {MoSGrid: Progress of Workflow driven Chemical Simulations}, volume = {826}, booktitle = {Proc. of Grid Workflow Workshop 2011, Cologne, Germany}, publisher = {CEUR Workshop Proceedings}, year = {2011}, language = {en} } @article{BirkenheuerBlunkBreuersetal.2011, author = {Birkenheuer, Georg and Blunk, Dirk and Breuers, Sebastian and Brinkmann, Andre and dos Santos Vieira, Ines and Fels, Gregor and Gesing, Sandra and Grunzke, Richard and Herres-Pawlis, Sonja and Kohlbacher, Oliver and Kr{\"u}ger, Jens and Lang, Ulrich and Packschies, Lars and M{\"u}ller-Pfefferkorn, Ralph and Sch{\"a}fer, Patrick and Schmalz, Hans-G{\"u}nther and Steinke, Thomas and Warzecha, Klaus Dieter and Wewior, Martin}, title = {A Molecular Simulation Grid as new tool for Computational Chemistry, Biology and Material Science}, volume = {3}, journal = {Journal of Cheminformatics 2011}, number = {Suppl 1}, doi = {10.1186/1758-2946-3-S1-P14}, year = {2011}, language = {en} } @inproceedings{GesingKacsukKozlovszkyetal.2011, author = {Gesing, Sandra and Kacsuk, Peter and Kozlovszky, Miklos and Birkenheuer, Georg and Blunk, Dirk and Breuers, Sebastian and Brinkmann, Andre and Fels, Gregor and Grunzke, Richard and Herres-Pawlis, Sonja and Kr{\"u}ger, Jens and Packschies, Lars and M{\"u}ller-Pfefferkorn, Ralph and Sch{\"a}fer, Patrick and Steinke, Thomas and Szikszay Fabri, Anna and Warzecha, Klaus Dieter and Wewior, Martin and Kohlbacher, Oliver}, title = {A Science Gateway for Molecular Simulations}, booktitle = {EGI (European Grid Infrastructure) User Forum 2011, Book of Abstracts}, pages = {94 -- 95}, year = {2011}, language = {en} } @article{BirkenheuerBlunkBreuersetal.2012, author = {Birkenheuer, Georg and Blunk, Dirk and Breuers, Sebastian and Brinkmann, Andr{\´e} and dos Santos Vieira, Ines and Fels, Gregor and Gesing, Sandra and Grunzke, Richard and Herres-Pawlis, Sonja and Kohlbacher, Oliver and Kr{\"u}ger, Jens and Lang, Ulrich and Packschies, Lars and M{\"u}ller-Pfefferkorn, Ralph and Sch{\"a}fer, Patrick and Steinke, Thomas and Warzecha, Klaus Dieter and Wewior, Martin}, title = {MoSGrid: efficient data management and a standardized data exchange format for molecular simulations in a grid environment}, volume = {4}, journal = {Journal of Cheminformatics}, number = {Suppl 1}, doi = {10.1186/1758-2946-4-S1-P21}, pages = {21}, year = {2012}, language = {en} } @article{GesingGrunzkeKruegeretal.2012, author = {Gesing, Sandra and Grunzke, Richard and Kr{\"u}ger, Jens and Birkenheuer, Georg and Wewior, Martin and Sch{\"a}fer, Patrick and Schuller, Bernd and Schuster, Johannes and Herres-Pawlis, Sonja and Breuers, Sebastian and Balasko, Akos and Kozlovszky, Miklos and Szikszay Fabri, Anna and Packschies, Lars and Kacsuk, Peter and Blunk, Dirk and Steinke, Thomas and Brinkmann, Andr{\´e} and Fels, Gregor and M{\"u}ller-Pfefferkorn, Ralph and J{\"a}kel, Ren{\´e} and Kohlbacher, Oliver}, title = {A Single Sign-On Infrastructure for Science Gateways on a Use Case for Structural Bioinformatics}, journal = {Journal of Grid Computing}, year = {2012}, language = {en} } @inproceedings{GrunzkeBirkenheuerBlunketal.2012, author = {Grunzke, Richard and Birkenheuer, Georg and Blunk, Dirk and Breuers, Sebastian and Brinkmann, Andr{\´e} and Gesing, Sandra and Herres-Pawlis, Sonja and Kohlbacher, Oliver and Kr{\"u}ger, Jens and Kruse, Martin and M{\"u}ller-Pfefferkorn, Ralph and Sch{\"a}fer, Patrick and Schuller, Bernd and Steinke, Thomas and Zink, Andreas}, title = {A Data Driven Science Gateway for Computational Workflows}, booktitle = {Proceedings of the UNICORE Summit}, address = {Dresden, Germany}, year = {2012}, language = {en} } @inproceedings{MartinMuellerPokutta2010, author = {Martin, Alexander and M{\"u}ller, J. and Pokutta, Sebastian}, title = {On clearing coupled day-ahead electricity markets}, booktitle = {Proceedings of 23rd Australasian Finance and Banking Conference}, year = {2010}, language = {en} }