@article{HelfmannDjurdjevacConradDjurdjevacetal.2021, author = {Helfmann, Luzie and Djurdjevac Conrad, Natasa and Djurdjevac, Ana and Winkelmann, Stefanie and Sch{\"u}tte, Christof}, title = {From interacting agents to density-based modeling with stochastic PDEs}, volume = {16}, journal = {Communications in Applied Mathematics and Computational Science}, number = {1}, arxiv = {http://arxiv.org/abs/1905.13525}, doi = {10.2140/camcos.2021.16.1}, pages = {1 -- 32}, year = {2021}, abstract = {Many real-world processes can naturally be modeled as systems of interacting agents. However, the long-term simulation of such agent-based models is often intractable when the system becomes too large. In this paper, starting from a stochastic spatio-temporal agent-based model (ABM), we present a reduced model in terms of stochastic PDEs that describes the evolution of agent number densities for large populations. We discuss the algorithmic details of both approaches; regarding the SPDE model, we apply Finite Element discretization in space which not only ensures efficient simulation but also serves as a regularization of the SPDE. Illustrative examples for the spreading of an innovation among agents are given and used for comparing ABM and SPDE models.}, language = {en} } @article{ZimperDjurdjevacHartmannetal.2025, author = {Zimper, Sebastian and Djurdjevac, Ana and Hartmann, Carsten and Sch{\"u}tte, Christof and Conrad, Natasa Djurdjevac}, title = {Mean-field optimal control with stochastic leaders}, arxiv = {http://arxiv.org/abs/2512.19201}, year = {2025}, abstract = {We consider interacting agent systems with a large number of stochastic agents (or particles) influenced by a fixed number of external stochastic lead agents. Such examples arise, for example in models of opinion dynamics, where a small number of leaders (influencers) can steer the behaviour of a large population of followers. In this context, we study a partial mean-field limit where the number of followers tends to infinity, while the number of leaders stays constant. The partial mean-field limit dynamics is then given by a McKean-Vlasov stochastic differential equation (SDE) for the followers, coupled to a controlled It{\^o}-SDE governing the dynamics of the lead agents. For a given cost functional that the lead agents seek to minimise, we show that the unique optimal control of the finite agent system convergences to the optimal control of the limiting system. This establishes that the low-dimensional control of the partial (mean-field) system provides an effective approximation for controlling the high-dimensional finite agent system. In addition, we propose a stochastic gradient descent algorithm that can efficiently approximate the mean-field control. Our theoretical results are illustrated on opinion dynamics model with lead agents, where the control objective is to drive the followers to reach consensus in finite time.}, language = {en} } @article{ZimperCornalbaDjurdjevacConradetal.2025, author = {Zimper, Sebastian and Cornalba, Federico and Djurdjevac Conrad, Natasa and Djurdjevac, Ana}, title = {On reduced inertial PDE models for Cucker-Smale flocking dynamics}, volume = {481}, journal = {Proceedings of the Royal Society A}, publisher = {Royal Society}, arxiv = {http://arxiv.org/abs/2407.18717}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1098/rspa.2024.0675}, year = {2025}, abstract = {In particle systems, flocking refers to the phenomenon where particles' individual velocities eventually align. The Cucker-Smale model is a well-known mathematical framework that describes this behaviour. Many continuous descriptions of the Cucker-Smale model use PDEs with both particle position and velocity as independent variables, thus providing a full description of the particles mean-field limit (MFL) dynamics. In this paper, we introduce a novel reduced inertial PDE model consisting of two equations that depend solely on particle position. In contrast to other reduced models, ours is not derived from the MFL, but directly includes the model reduction at the level of the empirical densities, thus allowing for a straightforward connection to the underlying particle dynamics. We present a thorough analytical investigation of our reduced model, showing that: firstly, our reduced PDE satisfies a natural and interpretable continuous definition of flocking; secondly, in specific cases, we can fully quantify the discrepancy between PDE solution and particle system. Our theoretical results are supported by numerical simulations.}, language = {en} } @article{DjurdjevacConradKoepplDjurdjevac2022, author = {Djurdjevac Conrad, Natasa and K{\"o}ppl, Jonas and Djurdjevac, Ana}, title = {Feedback Loops in Opinion Dynamics of Agent-Based Models with Multiplicative Noise}, volume = {24(10)}, journal = {Entropy}, arxiv = {http://arxiv.org/abs/2209.07151}, doi = {10.3390/e24101352}, year = {2022}, abstract = {We introduce an agent-based model for co-evolving opinions and social dynamics, under the influence of multiplicative noise. In this model, every agent is characterized by a position in a social space and a continuous opinion state variable. Agents' movements are governed by the positions and opinions of other agents and similarly, the opinion dynamics are influenced by agents' spatial proximity and their opinion similarity. Using numerical simulations and formal analyses, we study this feedback loop between opinion dynamics and the mobility of agents in a social space. We investigate the behaviour of this ABM in different regimes and explore the influence of various factors on the appearance of emerging phenomena such as group formation and opinion consensus. We study the empirical distribution, and, in the limit of infinite number of agents, we derive a corresponding reduced model given by a partial differential equation (PDE). Finally, using numerical examples, we show that a resulting PDE model is a good approximation of the original ABM.}, language = {en} } @article{WulkowConradDjurdjevacConradetal.2021, author = {Wulkow, Hanna and Conrad, Tim and Djurdjevac Conrad, Natasa and M{\"u}ller, Sebastian A. and Nagel, Kai and Sch{\"u}tte, Christof}, title = {Prediction of Covid-19 spreading and optimal coordination of counter-measures: From microscopic to macroscopic models to Pareto fronts}, volume = {16}, journal = {PLOS One}, number = {4}, publisher = {Public Library of Science}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0249676}, year = {2021}, language = {en} } @article{BlaskovicConradKlusetal.2025, author = {Blaskovic, Filip and Conrad, Tim and Klus, Stefan and Djurdjevac Conrad, Natasa}, title = {Random walk based snapshot clustering for detecting community dynamics in temporal networks}, volume = {15}, journal = {Scientific Reports}, arxiv = {http://arxiv.org/abs/2412.12187}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-025-09340-0}, pages = {24414}, year = {2025}, abstract = {The evolution of many dynamical systems that describe relationships or interactions between objects can be effectively modeled by temporal networks, which are typically represented as a sequence of static network snapshots. In this paper, we introduce a novel random walk based approach that can identify clusters of time-snapshots in which network community structures are stable. This allows to detect significant structural shifts over time, such as the splitting, merging, birth, or death of communities. We also provide a low-dimensional representation of entire snapshots, placing those with similar community structure close to each other in the feature space. To validate our approach, we develop an agent-based algorithm that generates synthetic datasets with the desired characteristic properties, enabling thorough testing and benchmarking. We further demonstrate the effectiveness and broad applicability of our technique by testing it on various social dynamics models and real-world datasets and comparing its performance to several state-of-the-art algorithms. Our findings highlight the strength of our approach to correctly capture and analyze the dynamics of complex systems.}, language = {en} } @article{BeckerDjurdjevacConradEseretal.2020, author = {Becker, Fabian and Djurdjevac Conrad, Natasa and Eser, Raphael A. and Helfmann, Luzie and Sch{\"u}tt, Brigitta and Sch{\"u}tte, Christof and Zonker, Johannes}, title = {The Furnace and the Goat—A spatio-temporal model of the fuelwood requirement for iron metallurgy on Elba Island, 4th century BCE to 2nd century CE}, volume = {15}, journal = {PLOS ONE}, publisher = {Public Library of Science}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0241133}, pages = {1 -- 37}, year = {2020}, language = {en} } @misc{ZonkerPadillaIglesiasDjurdjevacConrad2023, author = {Zonker, Johannes and Padilla-Iglesias, Cecilia and Djurdjevac Conrad, Natasa}, title = {Supplementary code and data for Royal Society Open Science Manuscript rsos.230495}, doi = {10.12752/9254}, year = {2023}, abstract = {In this repository are all files necessary to run the agent-based model of the paper "Insights into drivers of mobility and cultural dynamics of African hunter-gatherers over the past 120 000 years", Royal Society Open Science, 10(11), 2023.}, language = {en} } @misc{HelfmannDjurdjevacConradLorenzSpreenetal.2023, author = {Helfmann, Luzie and Djurdjevac Conrad, Natasa and Lorenz-Spreen, Philipp and Sch{\"u}tte, Christof}, title = {Supplementary code for the paper Modelling opinion dynamics under the impact of influencer and media strategies}, doi = {10.12752/9267}, year = {2023}, abstract = {This repository contains the Julia code accompanying the paper "Modelling opinion dynamics under the impact of influencer and media strategies", Scientific Reports, Vol.13, p. 19375, 2023.}, language = {en} } @article{TrowerDjurdjevacConradKlus2025, author = {Trower, Maia and Djurdjevac Conrad, Natasa and Klus, Stefan}, title = {Clustering Time-Evolving Networks Using the Spatiotemporal Graph Laplacian}, volume = {35}, journal = {Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science}, arxiv = {http://arxiv.org/abs/2407.12864}, doi = {10.1063/5.0228419}, pages = {013126}, year = {2025}, abstract = {Time-evolving graphs arise frequently when modeling complex dynamical systems such as social networks, traffic flow, and biological processes. Developing techniques to identify and analyze communities in these time-varying graph structures is an important challenge. In this work, we generalize existing spectral clustering algorithms from static to dynamic graphs using canonical correlation analysis (CCA) to capture the temporal evolution of clusters. Based on this extended canonical correlation framework, we define the spatio-temporal graph Laplacian and investigate its spectral properties. We connect these concepts to dynamical systems theory via transfer operators, and illustrate the advantages of our method on benchmark graphs by comparison with existing methods. We show that the spatio-temporal graph Laplacian allows for a clear interpretation of cluster structure evolution over time for directed and undirected graphs.}, language = {en} }