@article{ChenXuKoch2020, author = {Chen, Ying and Xu, Xiuqin and Koch, Thorsten}, title = {Day-ahead high-resolution forecasting of natural gas demand and supply in Germany with a hybrid model}, volume = {262}, journal = {Applied Energy}, number = {114486}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2019.114486}, year = {2020}, abstract = {As the natural gas market is moving towards short-term planning, accurate and robust short-term forecasts of the demand and supply of natural gas is of fundamental importance for a stable energy supply, a natural gas control schedule, and transport operation on a daily basis. We propose a hybrid forecast model, Functional AutoRegressive and Convolutional Neural Network model, based on state-of-the-art statistical modeling and artificial neural networks. We conduct short-term forecasting of the hourly natural gas flows of 92 distribution nodes in the German high-pressure gas pipeline network, showing that the proposed model provides nice and stable accuracy for different types of nodes. It outperforms all the alternative models, with an improved relative accuracy up to twofold for plant nodes and up to fourfold for municipal nodes. For the border nodes with rather flat gas flows, it has an accuracy that is comparable to the best performing alternative model.}, language = {en} } @article{ChenZakiyevaZhuetal.2020, author = {Chen, Ying and Zakiyeva, Nazgul and Zhu, Bangzhu and Koch, Thorsten}, title = {Modeling and Forecasting the Dynamics of the Natural Gas Transmission Network in Germany with the Demand and Supply Balance Constraint}, journal = {Applied Energy}, number = {278}, doi = {10.1016/j.apenergy.2020.115597}, year = {2020}, language = {en} } @article{KochChenLimetal.2020, author = {Koch, Thorsten and Chen, Ying and Lim, Kian Guan and Xu, Xiaofei and Zakiyeva, Nazgul}, title = {A review study of functional autoregressive models with application to energy forecasting}, journal = {WIREs Computational Statistics}, doi = {10.1002/wics.1525}, year = {2020}, language = {en} }