@article{HartmannSchuetteWeberetal.2017, author = {Hartmann, Carsten and Sch{\"u}tte, Christof and Weber, Marcus and Zhang, Wei}, title = {Importance sampling in path space for diffusion processes with slow-fast variables}, journal = {Probability Theory and Related Fields}, doi = {10.1007/s00440-017-0755-3}, pages = {1 -- 52}, year = {2017}, abstract = {Importance sampling is a widely used technique to reduce the variance of a Monte Carlo estimator by an appropriate change of measure. In this work, we study importance sampling in the framework of diffusion process and consider the change of measure which is realized by adding a control force to the original dynamics. For certain exponential type expectation, the corresponding control force of the optimal change of measure leads to a zero-variance estimator and is related to the solution of a Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellmann equation. We focus on certain diffusions with both slow and fast variables, and the main result is that we obtain an upper bound of the relative error for the importance sampling estimators with control obtained from the limiting dynamics. We demonstrate our approximation strategy with an illustrative numerical example.}, language = {en} } @article{HartmannJoesterSchuetteetal.2026, author = {Hartmann, Carsten and J{\"o}ster, Annika and Sch{\"u}tte, Christof and Sikorski, Alexander and Weber, Marcus}, title = {Importance sampling of unbounded random stopping times: computing committor functions and exit rates without reweighting}, arxiv = {http://arxiv.org/abs/2601.01489}, year = {2026}, abstract = {Rare events in molecular dynamics are often related to noise-induced transitions between different macroscopic states (e.g., in protein folding). A common feature of these rare transitions is that they happen on timescales that are on average exponentially long compared to the characteristic timescale of the system, with waiting time distributions that have (sub)exponential tails and infinite support. As a result, sampling such rare events can lead to trajectories that can be become arbitrarily long, with not too low probability, which makes the reweighting of such trajectories a real challenge. Here, we discuss rare event simulation by importance sampling from a variational perspective, with a focus on applications in molecular dynamics, in particular the computation of committor functions. The idea is to design importance sampling schemes that (a) reduce the variance of a rare event estimator while controlling the average length of the trajectories and (b) that do not require the reweighting of possibly very long trajectories. In doing so, we study different stochastic control formulations for committor and mean first exit times, which we compare both from a theoretical and a computational point of view, including numerical studies of some benchmark examples.}, language = {en} } @article{ZhangWangHartmannetal.2014, author = {Zhang, Wei and Wang, Han and Hartmann, Carsten and Weber, Marcus and Sch{\"u}tte, Christof}, title = {Applications of the cross-entropy method to importance sampling and optimal control of diffusions}, volume = {36}, journal = {Siam Journal on Scientific Computing}, number = {6}, doi = {10.1137/14096493X}, pages = {A2654 -- A2672}, year = {2014}, language = {en} } @misc{ZhangWangHartmannetal.2014, author = {Zhang, Wei and Wang, Han and Hartmann, Carsten and Weber, Marcus and Sch{\"u}tte, Christof}, title = {Applications of the cross-entropy method to importance sampling and optimal control of diffusions}, issn = {1438-0064}, doi = {10.1137/14096493X}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:0297-zib-49720}, year = {2014}, abstract = {We study the cross-entropy method for diffusions. One of the results is a versatile cross-entropy algorithm that can be used to design efficient importance sampling strategies for rare events or to solve optimal control problems. The approach is based on the minimization of a suitable cross-entropy functional, with a parametric family of exponentially tilted probability distributions. We illustrate the new algorithm with several numerical examples and discuss algorithmic issues and possible extensions of the method.}, language = {en} }