@article{KlebanovSikorskiSchuetteetal.2021, author = {Klebanov, Ilja and Sikorski, Alexander and Sch{\"u}tte, Christof and R{\"o}blitz, Susanna}, title = {Objective priors in the empirical Bayes framework}, volume = {48}, journal = {Scandinavian Journal of Statistics}, number = {4}, publisher = {Wiley Online Library}, doi = {10.1111/sjos.12485}, pages = {1212 -- 1233}, year = {2021}, abstract = {When dealing with Bayesian inference the choice of the prior often remains a debatable question. Empirical Bayes methods offer a data-driven solution to this problem by estimating the prior itself from an ensemble of data. In the nonparametric case, the maximum likelihood estimate is known to overfit the data, an issue that is commonly tackled by regularization. However, the majority of regularizations are ad hoc choices which lack invariance under reparametrization of the model and result in inconsistent estimates for equivalent models. We introduce a nonparametric, transformation-invariant estimator for the prior distribution. Being defined in terms of the missing information similar to the reference prior, it can be seen as an extension of the latter to the data-driven setting. This implies a natural interpretation as a trade-off between choosing the least informative prior and incorporating the information provided by the data, a symbiosis between the objective and empirical Bayes methodologies.}, language = {en} } @article{HartmannJoesterSchuetteetal.2026, author = {Hartmann, Carsten and J{\"o}ster, Annika and Sch{\"u}tte, Christof and Sikorski, Alexander and Weber, Marcus}, title = {Importance sampling of unbounded random stopping times: computing committor functions and exit rates without reweighting}, arxiv = {http://arxiv.org/abs/2601.01489}, year = {2026}, abstract = {Rare events in molecular dynamics are often related to noise-induced transitions between different macroscopic states (e.g., in protein folding). A common feature of these rare transitions is that they happen on timescales that are on average exponentially long compared to the characteristic timescale of the system, with waiting time distributions that have (sub)exponential tails and infinite support. As a result, sampling such rare events can lead to trajectories that can be become arbitrarily long, with not too low probability, which makes the reweighting of such trajectories a real challenge. Here, we discuss rare event simulation by importance sampling from a variational perspective, with a focus on applications in molecular dynamics, in particular the computation of committor functions. The idea is to design importance sampling schemes that (a) reduce the variance of a rare event estimator while controlling the average length of the trajectories and (b) that do not require the reweighting of possibly very long trajectories. In doing so, we study different stochastic control formulations for committor and mean first exit times, which we compare both from a theoretical and a computational point of view, including numerical studies of some benchmark examples.}, language = {en} } @article{SikorskiWeberSchuette2021, author = {Sikorski, Alexander and Weber, Marcus and Sch{\"u}tte, Christof}, title = {The Augmented Jump Chain}, volume = {4}, journal = {Advanced Theory and Simulations}, number = {4}, publisher = {Wiley-VCH}, arxiv = {http://arxiv.org/abs/2008.04624}, doi = {10.1002/adts.202000274}, year = {2021}, abstract = {Modern methods of simulating molecular systems are based on the mathematical theory of Markov operators with a focus on autonomous equilibrated systems. However, non-autonomous physical systems or non-autonomous simulation processes are becoming more and more important. A representation of non-autonomous Markov jump processes is presented as autonomous Markov chains on space-time. Augmenting the spatial information of the embedded Markov chain by the temporal information of the associated jump times, the so-called augmented jump chain is derived. The augmented jump chain inherits the sparseness of the infinitesimal generator of the original process and therefore provides a useful tool for studying time-dependent dynamics even in high dimensions. Furthermore, possible generalizations and applications to the computation of committor functions and coherent sets in the non-autonomous setting are discussed. After deriving the theoretical foundations, the concepts with a proof-of-concept Galerkin discretization of the transfer operator of the augmented jump chain applied to simple examples are illustrated.}, language = {en} }