@misc{WinkelmannSchuettevonKleist2013, author = {Winkelmann, Stefanie and Sch{\"u}tte, Christof and von Kleist, Max}, title = {Markov Control Processes with Rare State Observation: Theory and Application to Treatment Scheduling in HIV-1}, issn = {1438-0064}, doi = {10.4310/CMS.2014.v12.n5.a4}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:0297-zib-41955}, year = {2013}, abstract = {Markov Decision Processes (MDP) or Partially Observable MDPs (POMDP) are used for modelling situations in which the evolution of a process is partly random and partly controllable. These MDP theories allow for computing the optimal control policy for processes that can continuously or frequently be observed, even if only partially. However, they cannot be applied if state observation is very costly and therefore rare (in time). We present a novel MDP theory for rare, costly observations and derive the corresponding Bellman equation. In the new theory, state information can be derived for a particular cost after certain, rather long time intervals. The resulting information costs enter into the total cost and thus into the optimization criterion. This approach applies to many real world problems, particularly in the medical context, where the medical condition is examined rather rarely because examination costs are high. At the same time, the approach allows for efficient numerical realization. We demonstrate the usefulness of the novel theory by determining, from the national economic perspective, optimal therapeutic policies for the treatment of the human immunodefficiency virus (HIV) in resource-rich and resource-poor settings. Based on the developed theory and models, we discover that available drugs may not be utilized efficiently in resource-poor settings due to exorbitant diagnostic costs.}, language = {en} } @misc{WeberFackeldeySchuette2017, author = {Weber, Marcus and Fackeldey, Konstantin and Sch{\"u}tte, Christof}, title = {Set-free Markov State Building}, issn = {1438-0064}, doi = {10.1063/1.4978501}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:0297-zib-62167}, year = {2017}, abstract = {Molecular dynamics (MD) simulations face challenging problems since the timescales of interest often are much longer than what is possible to simulate and even if sufficiently long simulation are possible the complex nature of the resulting simulation data makes interpretation difficult. Markov State Models (MSMs) help to overcome these problems by making experimentally relevant timescales accessible via coarse grained representations that also allows for convenient interpretation. However, standard set-based MSMs exhibit some caveats limiting their approximation quality and statistical significance. One of the main caveats results from the fact that typical MD trajectories repeatedly re-cross the boundary between the sets used to build the MSM which causes statistical bias in estimating the transition probabilities between these sets. In this article, we present a set-free approach to MSM building utilizing smooth overlapping ansatz functions instead of sets and an adaptive refinement approach. This kind of meshless discretization helps to overcome the recrossing problem and yields an adaptive refinement procedure that allows to improve the quality of the model while exploring state space and inserting new ansatz functions into the MSM.}, language = {en} } @misc{WinkelmannSchuette2016, author = {Winkelmann, Stefanie and Sch{\"u}tte, Christof}, title = {The spatiotemporal master equation: approximation of reaction-diffusion dynamics via Markov state modeling}, issn = {1438-0064}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:0297-zib-60999}, year = {2016}, abstract = {Accurate modeling and numerical simulation of reaction kinetics is a topic of steady interest. We consider the spatiotemporal chemical master equation (ST-CME) as a model for stochastic reaction-diffusion systems that exhibit properties of metastability. The space of motion is decomposed into metastable compartments and diffusive motion is approximated by jumps between these compartments. Treating these jumps as first-order reactions, simulation of the resulting stochastic system is possible by the Gillespie method. We present the theory of Markov state models (MSM) as a theoretical foundation of this intuitive approach. By means of Markov state modeling, both the number and shape of compartments and the transition rates between them can be determined. We consider the ST-CME for two reaction-diffusion systems and compare it to more detailed models. Moreover, a rigorous formal justification of the ST-CME by Galerkin projection methods is presented.}, language = {en} } @misc{KlebanovSikorskiSchuetteetal.2016, author = {Klebanov, Ilja and Sikorski, Alexander and Sch{\"u}tte, Christof and R{\"o}blitz, Susanna}, title = {Empirical Bayes Methods, Reference Priors, Cross Entropy and the EM Algorithm}, issn = {1438-0064}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:0297-zib-61230}, year = {2016}, abstract = {When estimating a probability density within the empirical Bayes framework, the non-parametric maximum likelihood estimate (NPMLE) usually tends to overfit the data. This issue is usually taken care of by regularization - a penalization term is subtracted from the marginal log-likelihood before the maximization step, so that the estimate favors smooth solutions, resulting in the so-called maximum penalized likelihood estimation (MPLE). The majority of penalizations currently in use are rather arbitrary brute-force solutions, which lack invariance under transformation of the parameters(reparametrization) and measurements. This contradicts the principle that, if the underlying model has several equivalent formulations, the methods of inductive inference should lead to consistent results. Motivated by this principle and using an information-theoretic point of view, we suggest an entropy-based penalization term that guarantees this kind of invariance. The resulting density estimate can be seen as a generalization of reference priors. Using the reference prior as a hyperprior, on the other hand, is argued to be a poor choice for regularization. We also present an insightful connection between the NPMLE, the cross entropy and the principle of minimum discrimination information suggesting another method of inference that contains the doubly-smoothed maximum likelihood estimation as a special case.}, language = {en} } @misc{KlebanovSikorskiSchuetteetal.2016, author = {Klebanov, Ilja and Sikorski, Alexander and Sch{\"u}tte, Christof and R{\"o}blitz, Susanna}, title = {Empirical Bayes Methods for Prior Estimation in Systems Medicine}, issn = {1438-0064}, arxiv = {http://arxiv.org/abs/1612.01403}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:0297-zib-61307}, year = {2016}, abstract = {One of the main goals of mathematical modelling in systems medicine related to medical applications is to obtain patient-specific parameterizations and model predictions. In clinical practice, however, the number of available measurements for single patients is usually limited due to time and cost restrictions. This hampers the process of making patient-specific predictions about the outcome of a treatment. On the other hand, data are often available for many patients, in particular if extensive clinical studies have been performed. Therefore, before applying Bayes' rule separately to the data of each patient (which is typically performed using a non-informative prior), it is meaningful to use empirical Bayes methods in order to construct an informative prior from all available data. We compare the performance of four priors - a non-informative prior and priors chosen by nonparametric maximum likelihood estimation (NPMLE), by maximum penalized lilelihood estimation (MPLE) and by doubly-smoothed maximum likelihood estimation (DS-MLE) - by applying them to a low-dimensional parameter estimation problem in a toy model as well as to a high-dimensional ODE model of the human menstrual cycle, which represents a typical example from systems biology modelling.}, language = {en} } @misc{ZhangHartmannSchuette2016, author = {Zhang, Wei and Hartmann, Carsten and Sch{\"u}tte, Christof}, title = {Effective Dynamics Along Given Reaction Coordinates, and Reaction Rate Theory}, issn = {1438-0064}, doi = {10.1039/C6FD00147E}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:0297-zib-59706}, year = {2016}, abstract = {In molecular dynamics and related fields one considers dynamical descriptions of complex systems in full (atomic) detail. In order to reduce the overwhelming complexity of realistic systems (high dimension, large timescale spread, limited computational resources) the projection of the full dynamics onto some reaction coordinates is examined in order to extract statistical information like free energies or reaction rates. In this context, the effective dynamics that is induced by the full dynamics on the reaction coordinate space has attracted considerable attention in the literature. In this article, we contribute to this discussion: We first show that if we start with an ergodic diffusion processes whose invariant measure is unique then these properties are inherited by the effective dynamics. Then, we give equations for the effective dynamics, discuss whether the dominant timescales and reaction rates inferred from the effective dynamics are accurate approximations of such quantities for the full dynamics, and compare our findings to results from approaches like Zwanzig-Mori, averaging, or homogenization. Finally, by discussing the algorithmic realization of the effective dynamics, we demonstrate that recent algorithmic techniques like the "equation-free" approach and the "heterogeneous multiscale method" can be seen as special cases of our approach.}, language = {en} } @misc{BittracherSchuette2020, author = {Bittracher, Andreas and Sch{\"u}tte, Christof}, title = {A probabilistic algorithm for aggregating vastly undersampled large Markov chains}, issn = {1438-0064}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:0297-zib-78688}, year = {2020}, abstract = {Model reduction of large Markov chains is an essential step in a wide array of techniques for understanding complex systems and for efficiently learning structures from high-dimensional data. We present a novel aggregation algorithm for compressing such chains that exploits a specific low-rank structure in the transition matrix which, e.g., is present in metastable systems, among others. It enables the recovery of the aggregates from a vastly undersampled transition matrix which in practical applications may gain a speedup of several orders of mag- nitude over methods that require the full transition matrix. Moreover, we show that the new technique is robust under perturbation of the transition matrix. The practical applicability of the new method is demonstrated by identifying a reduced model for the large-scale traffic flow patterns from real-world taxi trip data.}, language = {en} } @misc{SunkaraRaharinirinaPeppertetal.2020, author = {Sunkara, Vikram and Raharinirina, N. Alexia and Peppert, Felix and von Kleist, Max and Sch{\"u}tte, Christof}, title = {Inferring Gene Regulatory Networks from Single Cell RNA-seq Temporal Snapshot Data Requires Higher Order Moments}, issn = {1438-0064}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:0297-zib-79664}, year = {2020}, abstract = {Due to the increase in accessibility and robustness of sequencing technology, single cell RNA-seq (scRNA-seq) data has become abundant. The technology has made significant contributions to discovering novel phenotypes and heterogeneities of cells. Recently, there has been a push for using single-- or multiple scRNA-seq snapshots to infer the underlying gene regulatory networks (GRNs) steering the cells' biological functions. To date, this aspiration remains unrealised. In this paper, we took a bottom-up approach and curated a stochastic two gene interaction model capturing the dynamics of a complete system of genes, mRNAs, and proteins. In the model, the regulation was placed upstream from the mRNA on the gene level. We then inferred the underlying regulatory interactions from only the observation of the mRNA population through~time. We could detect signatures of the regulation by combining information of the mean, covariance, and the skewness of the mRNA counts through time. We also saw that reordering the observations using pseudo-time did not conserve the covariance and skewness of the true time course. The underlying GRN could be captured consistently when we fitted the moments up to degree three; however, this required a computationally expensive non-linear least squares minimisation solver. There are still major numerical challenges to overcome for inference of GRNs from scRNA-seq data. These challenges entail finding informative summary statistics of the data which capture the critical regulatory information. Furthermore, the statistics have to evolve linearly or piece-wise linearly through time to achieve computational feasibility and scalability.}, language = {en} } @misc{RaySunkaraSchuetteetal.2020, author = {Ray, Sourav and Sunkara, Vikram and Sch{\"u}tte, Christof and Weber, Marcus}, title = {How to calculate pH-dependent binding rates for receptor-ligand systems based on thermodynamic simulations with different binding motifs}, issn = {1438-0064}, doi = {10.1080/08927022.2020.1839660}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:0297-zib-78437}, year = {2020}, abstract = {Molecular simulations of ligand-receptor interactions are a computational challenge, especially when their association- (``on''-rate) and dissociation- (``off''-rate) mechanisms are working on vastly differing timescales. In addition, the timescale of the simulations themselves is, in practice, orders of magnitudes smaller than that of the mechanisms; which further adds to the complexity of observing these mechanisms, and of drawing meaningful and significant biological insights from the simulation. One way of tackling this multiscale problem is to compute the free-energy landscapes, where molecular dynamics (MD) trajectories are used to only produce certain statistical ensembles. The approach allows for deriving the transition rates between energy states as a function of the height of the activation-energy barriers. In this article, we derive the association rates of the opioids fentanyl and N-(3-fluoro-1-phenethylpiperidin-4-yl)- N-phenyl propionamide (NFEPP) in a \$\mu\$-opioid receptor by combining the free-energy landscape approach with the square-root-approximation method (SQRA), which is a particularly robust version of Markov modelling. The novelty of this work is that we derive the association rates as a function of the pH level using only an ensemble of MD simulations. We also verify our MD-derived insights by reproducing the in vitro study performed by the Stein Lab, who investigated the influence of pH on the inhibitory constant of fentanyl and NFEPP (Spahn et al. 2017). MD simulations are far more accessible and cost-effective than in vitro and in vivo studies. Especially in the context of the current opioid crisis, MD simulations can aid in unravelling molecular functionality and assist in clinical decision-making; the approaches presented in this paper are a pertinent step forward in this direction.}, language = {en} } @misc{HelfmannDjurdjevacConradDjurdjevacetal.2019, author = {Helfmann, Luzie and Djurdjevac Conrad, Natasa and Djurdjevac, Ana and Winkelmann, Stefanie and Sch{\"u}tte, Christof}, title = {From interacting agents to density-based modeling with stochastic PDEs}, issn = {1438-0064}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:0297-zib-73456}, year = {2019}, abstract = {Many real-world processes can naturally be modeled as systems of interacting agents. However, the long-term simulation of such agent-based models is often intractable when the system becomes too large. In this paper, starting from a stochastic spatio-temporal agent-based model (ABM), we present a reduced model in terms of stochastic PDEs that describes the evolution of agent number densities for large populations. We discuss the algorithmic details of both approaches; regarding the SPDE model, we apply Finite Element discretization in space which not only ensures efficient simulation but also serves as a regularization of the SPDE. Illustrative examples for the spreading of an innovation among agents are given and used for comparing ABM and SPDE models.}, language = {en} }