TY - GEN A1 - Petkovic, Milena A1 - Zakiyeva, Nazgul T1 - Mathematical Optimization for Analyzing and Forecasting Nonlinear Network Time Series N2 - This work presents an innovative short to mid-term forecasting model that analyzes nonlinear complex spatial and temporal dynamics in energy networks under demand and supply balance constraints using Network Nonlinear Time Series (TS) and Mathematical Programming (MP) approach. We address three challenges simultaneously, namely, the adjacency matrix is unknown; the total amount in the network has to be balanced; dependence is unnecessarily linear. We use a nonparametric approach to handle the nonlinearity and estimate the adjacency matrix under the sparsity assumption. The estimation is conducted with the Mathematical Optimisation method. We illustrate the accuracy and effectiveness of the model on the example of the natural gas transmission network of one of the largest transmission system operators (TSOs) in Germany, Open Grid Europe. The obtained results show that, especially for shorter forecasting horizons, the proposed method outperforms all considered benchmark models, improving the average nMAPE for 5.1% and average RMSE for 79.6% compared to the second-best model. The model is capable of capturing the nonlinear dependencies in the complex spatial-temporal network dynamics and benefits from both sparsity assumption and the demand and supply balance constraint. T3 - ZIB-Report - 22-19 KW - nonlinear time series KW - mathematical optimization KW - energy networks Y1 - 2022 UR - https://opus4.kobv.de/opus4-zib/frontdoor/index/index/docId/8803 UR - https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:0297-zib-88037 SN - 1438-0064 ER -