TY - JOUR A1 - Helfmann, Luzie A1 - Heitzig, Jobst A1 - Koltai, Péter A1 - Kurths, Jürgen A1 - Schütte, Christof T1 - Statistical analysis of tipping pathways in agent-based models T2 - Eur. Phys. J. Spec. Top. N2 - Agent-based models are a natural choice for modeling complex social systems. In such models simple stochastic interaction rules for a large population of individuals on the microscopic scale can lead to emergent dynamics on the macroscopic scale, for instance a sudden shift of majority opinion or behavior. Here we are introducing a methodology for studying noise-induced tipping between relevant subsets of the agent state space representing characteristic configurations. Due to a large number of interacting individuals, agent-based models are high-dimensional, though usually a lower-dimensional structure of the emerging collective behaviour exists. We therefore apply Diffusion Maps, a non-linear dimension reduction technique, to reveal the intrinsic low-dimensional structure. We characterize the tipping behaviour by means of Transition Path Theory, which helps gaining a statistical understanding of the tipping paths such as their distribution, flux and rate. By systematically studying two agent-based models that exhibit a multitude of tipping pathways and cascading effects, we illustrate the practicability of our approach. Y1 - 2021 UR - https://opus4.kobv.de/opus4-zib/frontdoor/index/index/docId/8166 VL - 230 SP - 3249 EP - 3271 ER -