TY - CONF A1 - Petkovic, Milena A1 - Zittel, Janina T1 - Forecasting and modeling the dynamics of large-scale energy networks under the supply and demand balance constraint T2 - AIRO Springer Series: International Conference on Optimization and Decision Science N2 - With the emergence of ”Big Data” the analysis of large data sets of high-dimensional energy time series in network structures have become feasible. However, building large-scale data-driven and computationally efficient models to accurately capture the underlying spatial and temporal dynamics and forecast the multivariate time series data remains a great challenge. Additional constraints make the problem more challenging to solve with conventional methods. For example, to ensure the security of supply, energy networks require the demand and supply to be balanced. This paper introduces a novel large-scale Hierarchical Network Regression model with Relaxed Balance constraint (HNR-RB) to investigate the network dynamics and predict multistep-ahead flows in the natural gas transmission network, where the total in- and out-flows of the network have to be balanced over a period of time. We concurrently address three main challenges: high dimensionality of networks with more than 100 nodes, unknown network dynamics, and constraint of balanced supply and demand in the network. The effectiveness of the proposed model is demonstrated through a real-world case study of forecasting demand and supply in a large-scale natural gas transmission network. The results demonstrate that HNR-RB outperforms alternative models for short- and mid-term horizons. Y1 - 2023 UR - https://opus4.kobv.de/opus4-zib/frontdoor/index/index/docId/9110 ER -