TY - GEN A1 - Brose, Achim A1 - Fügenschuh, Armin A1 - Gausemeier, Pia A1 - Vierhaus, Ingmar A1 - Seliger, Günther T1 - A System Dynamic Enhancement for the Scenario Technique N2 - The Scenario Technique is a strategic planning method that aims to describe and analyze potential developments of a considered system in the future. Its application consists of several steps, from an initial problem analysis over an influence analysis to projections of key factors and a definition of the scenarios to a final interpretation of the results. The technique itself combines qualitative and quantitative methods and is an enhancement of the standard Scenario Technique. We use the numerical values gathered during the influence analysis, and embed them in a System Dynamics framework. This yields a mathematically rigorous way to achieve predictions of the system‘s future behavior from an initial impulse and the feedback structure of the factors. The outcome of our new method is a further way of projecting the present into the future, which enables the user of the Scenario Technique to obtain a validation of the results achieved by the standard method. T3 - ZIB-Report - 13-24 KW - Scenario Technique; System Dynamics Y1 - 2013 UR - https://opus4.kobv.de/opus4-zib/frontdoor/index/index/docId/1815 UR - https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:0297-zib-18150 UR - http://opus4.kobv.de/opus4-tuberlin/frontdoor/index/index/docId/4026 SN - 1438-0064 ER -