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Buchgeschichte
(2019)
This dissertation investigates different applications of data analytics in supply chain planning. In the last years, data analytics became more important, because of the increase of computational power and the larger availability of data. Data analytics is used in various domains to improve operations performance, increase customer satisfaction and revenues. However, both the research and the application of data analytics in supply chain management is still lacking behind other industries. We1 analyze the potential of data analytics in the field of supply chain planning in three exemplary fields: demand forecasting, partial defection prediction and price discrimination. In addition, we demonstrate how to deal with three common challenges in the field of data analytics: the manual effort for method selection and hyperparameter tuning, the difficult interpretability of machine learning methods and the risks associated with data collection through randomized experiments. In the first paper, we develop a method selection approach in the field of intermittent demand prediction. Our model combines high predictive performance with automation and calculation efficiency. Unlike common practice, the prediction method gets automatically chosen for each data set without any manual selection. Our results are stable across three different data sets that come from different sources but all contain intermittent demand time series. We showcase the impact of the proposed forecasting approach with a warehouse operation simulation. We thereby prove the financial benefit with empirical data. In the second paper, we deal with partial defection prediction in a business-tobusiness environment in the logistics industry. The predictions must combine predictive performance with interpretability and profit maximization. Our model uses a large variety of customer-based and time-series-based features to predict the probability of partial defection for each customer. We use a data permutation approach to make the best performing, black-box models interpretable. Furthermore, we use a profit assessment to identify the method that leads to the highest revenue through successful retention actions. In the third paper, we study price sensitivity prediction. We do not use any randomized experiments, because the risk of loosing customers through such experiments is too high. Thereby, we address the challenge of data availability
1The term “we” refers to the authors of the respective chapters as denoted at the beginning of each chapter. For the abstract, this refers to the authors of Faber and Spinler (2019a,b,c).
Exploring business ecosystem properties with a focus on innovation and entrepreneurship activities
(2019)
With the rising importance of the external economic environment of organisations and open and collaborative innovation, the last two decades have seen an emergence of diverse literature streams and practitioner interpretations of business ecosystems. However, most of the scholars’ attention has been on ecosystems that function in the information and telecommunication technology industries and interactions between actors driven by economic interests. Moreover, business ecosystems analysis was embedded in the strategic management and organizational design literature, which primarily investigated the ecosystem leader using examples of powerful multinational corporations such as IBM, Microsoft, Google and Apple. These new powerful corporations significantly influenced the nature of the global competitive landscape (e.g. app economy), enabled the emergence of new business models (e.g. platform business) and even new forms of entrepreneurship (e.g. blogging and self-publishing). However, little remained known about the actors at the periphery of business ecosystems – that enable the functioning of such ecosystems - and the entrepreneurship processes that take place in the ecosystem environment.
With the goal of contributing to the extant literature and creating a better understanding of the central factors that foster evolution, and the functioning and growth of today’s business ecosystems, the first project of this doctoral dissertation provides an overview of the ecosystem concept evolution in literature and in practice. Based on the findings of this project, this dissertation takes two qualitative empirical directions. To expand on the scope of the ecosystem concept, in the second project it looks at open and collaborative innovation processes in the fashion industry, analyses the role of individuals in business ecosystems and highlights the emergence of new forms of entrepreneurship. Following a worldwide growing startup trend and increased corporate engagement in diverse corporate venturing activities, the third project empirically investigates inter-organisational knowledge flows and value creation and capture processes in the innovation ecosystem environment. This dissertation contributes to the open and user innovation and entrepreneurship literature and provides practical implications for managers and entrepreneurs interested in participating in an existing business ecosystem or considering starting one on their own.
Future oriented libraries can make use of the current start-up trend. An orientation towards new and unorthodox target groups can lead to an enhanced extension of demand and can emphasize the status of libraries. The library of the WHU – Otto Beisheim School of Management is considering to involve a new target group, start-up founders amongst their alumni. To that end, a survey was carried out and evaluated in cooperation with the Institute of Information Science at the TH Köln – University of Applied Sciences in form of a bachelor thesis, which this article is based upon. Here, a structured pre-analysis tries to determine the demand of this specific target group (founders) and develops a concept to serve the demand of this target group specifically. The example of the case study illustrates a method for target groups specific information demand and also checks the consequences for libraries and their services who venture out of their regular clientele.
With the start of digitalization and the initiation of a whole new industry of digital services, some of the well-established marketing wisdoms are now under scrutiny. This also holds for the importance of customer win-back for any firm – a belief that has actually never really been questioned. While related research focuses on mature industries and highlights the profitability of win-back, to date no study known to the authors has addressed the role of reacquired customers compared to first-lifetime customers in the interplay of acquisition and retention for digital firms. This is especially important when assessing firms’ current winback strategy and forecasting the development of acquisition and retention success of reacquired compared to first-lifetime customers. This study proposes a win-back assessment framework that enables firms to assess their win-back strategy and to detect problems in acquisition or retention of first-lifetime and reacquired customers. The authors demonstrate the use of framework on transaction data from a digital subscription service and data from a field experiment with that same service provider. They analyze the data from a new analytical perspective compared to extant research, which they call “cohort perspective” and jointly investigates acquisition and retention of first-lifetime and reacquired customers, who started their subscription around the same time (i.e. cohort). The results show the need for the cohort perspective by unveiling the contradiction that reacquired customers can “live” longer than in their previous lifetime (on average 328 days), but that they “live” shorter than first-lifetime customers of the same cohort ( ̶ 19%). The authors explain the rationale of this observation and discuss its implications.
Amazon is entering the stationary food trade in the US on a large scale. The world's largest online retailer acquires the organic chain Whole Foods Market for around USD 13.6bn. It is by far the largest acquisition in the company's history only followed by its purchase of the video game streaming platform Twitch and the online pharmacy PillPack, each for approximately USD 1 bn. Amazon had put pressure on stationary retailers in recent years and has shown an increasing interest in getting involved in their own business. Amazon opened several bookstores and also drives plans for high-tech supermarkets, which can be operated by only few employees. The group has also been expanding in the fresh food trade and the insurance sector for some time.
Deal Logic WABCO / ZF
(2019)
Anticipating future developments is not only a key task of every successful management team but also one of the most challenging ones. Sometimes, the pace of the markets towards a specific development can surpass the capable speed of change within a firm. In this case, acquisitions are a good option to not fall behind new or more agile competitors. The electrification of the automotive industry calls for new, innovative parts beyond the combustion engine. Due to the Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) low Real Net Output Ratio, the automotive suppliers will be required to do most of the anticipation. ZF Friedrichshafen AG (ZF) is betting on breaks to be vital demand driver of the future, with their acquisition of WABCO Holdings Inc. (WABCO).
Deal Logic Sprint / T-Mobile
(2019)
The two major US mobile operators, T-Mobile US Inc (T-Mobile) and Sprint Corp (Sprint), announced the merger of both firms in April 2018. The merger was initiated by T-Mobile that recently ranked as the third largest player in the US mobile telecommunication market. The transaction supports T-Mobile's aim to build the most extensive mobile network with the highest transmission capacity until 2024.
Deutsche Telekom AG and SoftBank will hold 42.0% and 27.0% of the new firm respectively. As a consequence of the deal, the new entity will challenge the top two market leaders Verizon and AT&T and reform the current telecommunication business landscape in the USA.
Deal Logic Shire / Takeda
(2019)
After a long bidding phase, the Japanese pharma company Takeda is going to take over the Ireland based manufacturer and wholesaler of pharmaceutical products Shire PLC. In the fifth attempt, Takeda offered USD 62 bn. The acquisition will create a leading provider of drugs for the treatment of rare diseases, cancer, blood clotting disorders, neurological disorders, or gastroenterology. With Shire, Takeda would double the size of their pharmaceutical business to about USD 30 bn, making it one of the top ten pharma companies worldwide. The takeover is the second biggest the pharmaceutical industry has seen so far and the largest overseas acquisition by a Japanese company.
Disrupt yourself to avoid getting disrupted: Large firms struggling with further growth, acquiring smaller innovation drivers with complementary assets isn’t something new. But what is hard, in this context, is to justify the surging valuations and to identify the underlying synergies. When it comes to the High-Tech sector this can quickly become a philosophical question. The big question in the acquisition of Red Hat Inc. by IBM, analyzed in this Deal Logic, is the one concerning the future of cloud computing, especially when it comes to customer approval.
Deal Logic LVMH / Belmond
(2019)
In the recent past, the demand for luxury experiences has grown. An increase in the middle and upper class disposable income, changes in lifestyle patterns, and demand for unique and exotic holiday experiences have been the forefront drivers. The global luxury travel market is expected to garner USD 1.2tr by 2022. Epitomising desirable destinations, luxurious accommodations, convenient transport facilities, and authentic travel experience, the luxury travel market has great future potential to grow and diversify. Customization and personalization gain increasing importance in luxury tourism. Also, the concept of luxury travel changes from opulence to exclusive. Synonymous with luxury, LVMH bets on the future of this market that is increasingly going experiential. Belmond would help it increase its luxury image. It would benefit from a luxury perception with both tangible and experiential products in its portfolio.
Fiserv (NASDAQ: FISV) and First Data Corporation (NYSE: FDC) coannounced on Jan 16th an unanimous merger agreement under which Fiserv would acquire First Data in a pure-stock transaction. The merger would combine two well-established Fintech companies into one giant. For each share of First Data, a fixed exchange ratio of 0.303 Fiserv shares is agreed, for a total equity value of USD 22bn. After the close of the transaction, Fiserv shareholders will own 57.5% of the new combined company, and First Data shareholders will own 42.5% on a fully diluted basis. The pure stock transaction is intended to be tax-free to First Data shareholders. The transaction is slated to close in the second half of the year, subject to shareholder and regulatory approval.
Deal Logic Careem / Uber
(2019)
Confirmed in March 2019, Uber plans to acquire its Middle Eastern rival Careem in a deal worth USD 3.1bn. The transaction value is expected to be a record for a Middle Eastern tech startup exit and among the highest globally for ride-hailing mergers and acquisitions. As part of this deal, which is expected to close in early 2020, Uber will acquire Careem’s mobility, delivery and payments business across the greater Middle Eastern region, which includes operations in Egypt, Jordan, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and the UAE. After pulling out of major markets like China and selling its business in Southeast Asia to Grab last March, Uber has been seeking new avenues of growth.
Deal Logic BB&T / SunTrust
(2019)
Two regional retail banks merging to become the 6th largest bank in the US sounds very much like inorganic growth. After all, that is how Chemical Bank, Manufacturer's Hanover Trust Company, Chase Manhattan Bank and J.P. Morgan became one of the largest banks in the world today. But an aspect which is more relevant today than ever is inorganic growth enabling organic growth. Scalability applies to technology on the revenue side as well as on the cost side and gives larger banks a crucial competitive advantage. The strategic option of consolidation seems to be something which was long overdue, considering the dynamic market environment.
In this competitive world, a company has to keep evolving – either by expansion and/or by diversification. Particularly looking at the sporting industry, the former nowadays is a necessity. With a market size of USD 60bn, the global sporting goods market is growing rapidly. Every company in the industry has to be agile to avoid being disrupted. The acquisition of Amer Sports by Anta Sports reflects this line of thought. Founded three decades ago as a low-cost manufacturer for global brands, Anta is now aiming to rival Adidas and Nike with its planned USD 6.3bn takeover.
As a giant in the entertainment space, you have the power to influence not only the kind of content you roll out, but also the mediums on which the content can be offered. With the growing presence of online streaming platforms, the need to make yourself and your content relevant is ever increasing. Under looming concerns of a possible monopoly in the entertainment sector, Disney's purchase of 21st Century Fox has effects on the entertainment industry in the long run. With expectations of downsizing operations and possible large scale lay-offs, the real-world implications of the buyout aren't exactly lighthearted fun.
After a period of unchallenged market leadership in the segment of PC soft- and hardware, Microsoft faced increasing pressure from its competitors after 2010. Following this increase Microsoft initiated a new strategic alignment in recent years.
With more than 230 acquisitions Microsoft exhibits an extensive history of M&A transactions. In order to support its strategic shift, Microsoft announced in June 2013 its biggest deal with the acquisition of LinkedIn, bidding $26.2 billon.
Looking back on Microsoft's deal history, especially due to value destroying deals like the acquisition of Nokia's device segment, experts are sceptical whether Microsoft is able to generate value for shareholders.
Supply chain complexity
(2019)
Supply chain management (SCM) is known as a competitive strategy in today’s business. Through increasing product variety, structures and processes, managers struggle with an increase in supply chain complexity (SCC), which leads to a negative influence on a firm’s efficiency in terms of lead times, flexibility and costs. In order to manage complexity, supply chain managers need to know its drivers or define appropriate management measures. However, managers can no longer manage SCC internally. In order to cope with this challenging issue and achieve overall benefits, it is necessary that the complete supply chain is involved in optimising supply chain processes. An aligned supply chain should ensure that supply chain partners benefit from cost savings. At the same time, supply chain processes should be agile to respond to market volatility, while also being cost-efficient to survive in the highly competitive world.
In this dissertation, three research cases are conducted with different focus areas whereby first drivers for internal and external SCC are explored in a single case study. In order to gain a representative overview of relevant drivers, not only interviews with top managers from a manufacturer are held but also with key managers from suppliers and customers. With the interviews held from the upstream to downstream supply chain, this part of the dissertation sheds light on topical SCC drivers and provides some hypotheses for managing detailed and dynamic SCC. With this case, an academic contribution is provided to better understand the relevance of SCC.
In a second step, another qualitative study addresses the requirements of a supply chain. The basis for this part is the triple-A supply chain of Hau Lee (2004), where he states from a theoretical perspective the prerequisites of a supply chain, namely agility, adaptability and alignment. In this dissertation, this approach is reviewed from a managerial perspective. It is analysed which key performance indicators of a firm are affected by the three aforementioned qualities. Finally, it is presented how agility, adaptability and alignment are linked together. In order to gain a common understanding, semi-structured interviews are conducted to extend literature through managerial experience.
In a third step, a quantitative simulation creating a discrete-event simulation model is provided to evaluate inventory and logistics costs’ effects in a company that faces significant SCC. The target is to align the supply chain by changing the existing distribution channel to direct delivery. The result shall demonstrate the financial benefit for the supply chain partners, as well as illustrating the conditions and risks when changing supply chain processes.
This dissertation shows that companies are increasingly faced by SCC. In order to respond flexibly to market volatility, supply chains must be agile to ensure that financial risk shall not alarm a company’s existence. Therefore, it is recommended to align the supply chain with a collaborative supply chain model.
Nursing without caring?
(2019)
We know that existing professions in the health care sector value work environment and job conditions to a great extent. However, we are also witnessing an expansion of new roles into the health care sector, many of which substitutie the tasks of existing professions. This may be efficient, in that it releases professionals’ time. However, there is little understanding of what motivates these new professions in entering or remaining in these newly created roles. This study tries to evaluate the preference structure of one of these new staff groups, surgical technologist, through examining the preferences of trainees, defined over a number of attributes, in this group. The DCE study covers 80% of the target population. The results show a vigorous disfavour towards any perceived nursing job characteristics such as caring activities, hierarchical work environment or shift types. The results inform policy makers and hospital manager about the importance to focus not only on the nursing profession but also to take into account the existence of a group of people who is willing to work within the health care system however, associated with strong preferences against nursing activities, especially caring. Implementing and further development of new and specialised profession through reallocating former nursing tasks- should be considered while coping with labour shortage.
Essays on health economics
(2019)
This paper examines the role of uncertainty in the context of the business cycle in the Eurozone. To gain a more granular perspective on uncertainty, the paper decomposes uncertainty along two dimensions: First, we construct the four different moments of uncertainty, including the point estimate, the standard deviation, the skewness and the kurtosis. The second dimension of uncertainty spans along three distinct groups of economic agents, including consumers, corporates and financial markets. Based on this taxonomy, we construct uncertainty indices and assess the impact on real GDP via impulse response functions and further investigate their informational value in rolling out-of-sample GDP forecasts. The analysis lends evidence to the hypothesis that higher uncertainty expressed through the point estimate, a larger standard deviation among confidence estimates, positive skewness and a higher kurtosis are all negatively correlated with the business cycle. The impulse response functions reveal that in particular the first and the second moment of uncertainty cause a permanent effect on GDP with an initial decline and a subsequent overshoot. We find uncertainty in the corporate sector to be the main driver behind this observation, followed by financial markets’ uncertainty whose initial effect on GDP is comparable but receding much faster. While the first two moments of uncertainty improve GDP forecasts significantly, both the skewness and the kurtosis do not augment the forecast quality any further.