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Institute
- Institute of Management Accounting and Control (43)
- WHU Library (31)
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- Kühne Foundation Endowed Chair of Logistics Management (27)
- Chair of Monetary Economics (22)
- WHU Financial Accounting & Tax Center (FAccT Center) (22)
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- Allianz Endowed Chair of Finance (20)
- Chair of Macroeconomics and International Economics (16)
- Chair of Organization Theory (14)
This dissertation investigates the application of machine learning to improve decision making in airline operations. In an introductory overview, we1 discuss the airline industry and the challenges of decision making in airline operations: e. g., complex IT infrastructure, interconnected resources, delay management, fuel price volatility and future environmental regulation. Machine learning can efficiently integrate a large volume of data from a variety of data sources and formats to generate accurate predictions. To assess the viability of using machine learning models for decision making in airline operations, we develop a model based on linear regression and gradient boosting to predict aircraft arrival time. Furthermore, we integrate cost index optimization to model the impact of aircraft speed on arrival time. While we find that machine learning can improve prediction accuracy by more than 30 %, the optimal cost index varies according to fuel cost, flight distance and delay costs. We propose an overall reduction in cost index for short-haul flights to reduce fuel cost while maintaining punctual operations. Arrival time predictions serve as input for daily operations planning and control. For network carriers accurate arrival time predictions are key for efficient hub operations. In a next step, we focus on aircraft arrival time prediction for intercontinental flights. We analyze the accuracy of en-route weather data provided by the flight plan, generate features based on en-route weather data and integrate them in our prediction model. We evaluate three machine learning models: linear regression, random forest and gradient boosting. Through our approach, we can assess the impact of en-route weather data. Overall, an increase in prediction accuracy of 25 % is achieved. By including en-route weather data, prediction accuracy is improved by 5 %. Our model outlines the essential features for intercontinental arrival time predictions and assess the value of en-route weather data. Furthermore, we outline organizational challenges in implementing predictive analytics. Future environmental regulations are a challenge for the airline industry. From 2020 onwards net growth in CO2 emissions is prohibited. Thus, airlines need to focus on initiatives to limit fuel consumption. We develop a prediction model for fuel consumption considering ten different aircraft types. Our results show that fuel consumption can be improved by more than 30 % for short and long-haul flights resulting in an annual reduction of 10.5 million e in fuel costs and a reduction on green house gas emissions of 66.000 tons. Furthermore, we assess the pilots’ willingness to integrate our prediction model in their fuel decision. Our analysis shows that high prediction accuracy, model understanding and a long testing phase are essential for acceptance of the prediction model. The main implication is that decision making in airline operations can be substantially improved through machine learning. Therefore, more prediction.
1The term “we” refers to the authors of the respective chapters as denoted at the beginning of each chapter. For the abstract, this refers to the authors of Achenbach and Spinler (2018a,b), Achenbach et al. (2017).
Deal Logic Linde / Praxair
(2018)
Currently in news for the last moment approval from the Federal Trade Commission to make the Praxair and Linde merger a reality, the development of the deal has not been short of hurdles. Initially, Praxair-Linde faced resistance from the European Union under the accusation that the merger would hinder competition. Later, both companies had to undertake multiple selling transactions to meet the anti-trust requirements of the countries in which they operated. Praxair and Linde were finally able to meet the requirements in early November for a successful completion of the merger.
Linde and Praxair, the world’s no. 2 and no. 3 industrial gas suppliers respectively, were in the spotlight due to the size of the merger and the impact that it would have on the gas industry, almost making them a monopoly firm.
As a giant in the entertainment space, you have the power to influence not only the kind of content you roll out, but also the mediums on which the content can be offered. With the growing presence of online streaming platforms, the need to make yourself and your content relevant is ever increasing. Under looming concerns of a possible monopoly in the entertainment sector, Disney's purchase of 21st Century Fox has effects on the entertainment industry in the long run. With expectations of downsizing operations and possible large scale lay-offs, the real-world implications of the buyout aren't exactly lighthearted fun.
Disrupt yourself to avoid getting disrupted: Large firms struggling with further growth, acquiring smaller innovation drivers with complementary assets isn’t something new. But what is hard, in this context, is to justify the surging valuations and to identify the underlying synergies. When it comes to the High-Tech sector this can quickly become a philosophical question. The big question in the acquisition of Red Hat Inc. by IBM, analyzed in this Deal Logic, is the one concerning the future of cloud computing, especially when it comes to customer approval.
Deal Logic LVMH / Belmond
(2019)
In the recent past, the demand for luxury experiences has grown. An increase in the middle and upper class disposable income, changes in lifestyle patterns, and demand for unique and exotic holiday experiences have been the forefront drivers. The global luxury travel market is expected to garner USD 1.2tr by 2022. Epitomising desirable destinations, luxurious accommodations, convenient transport facilities, and authentic travel experience, the luxury travel market has great future potential to grow and diversify. Customization and personalization gain increasing importance in luxury tourism. Also, the concept of luxury travel changes from opulence to exclusive. Synonymous with luxury, LVMH bets on the future of this market that is increasingly going experiential. Belmond would help it increase its luxury image. It would benefit from a luxury perception with both tangible and experiential products in its portfolio.
In this competitive world, a company has to keep evolving – either by expansion and/or by diversification. Particularly looking at the sporting industry, the former nowadays is a necessity. With a market size of USD 60bn, the global sporting goods market is growing rapidly. Every company in the industry has to be agile to avoid being disrupted. The acquisition of Amer Sports by Anta Sports reflects this line of thought. Founded three decades ago as a low-cost manufacturer for global brands, Anta is now aiming to rival Adidas and Nike with its planned USD 6.3bn takeover.
Library security
(2015)
This paper examines the sensitivity of profit shifting to the corporate tax rate difference between a subsidiary and its parent company. We exploit tax rate variation stemming from European tax reforms over the period 2003-2013 while accounting for tax base adjustments that might affect firms’ profit shifting response to tax rate changes. We find that affiliates’ profits are sensitive to tax rate changes. However, tax base broadening reforms mitigate the tax rate incentives for profit shifting and significantly reduce the semi-elasticity of profits with respect to corporate tax rates. Finally, we provide evidence of a downward trend in the tax sensitivity of profit shifting, suggesting that the spread of anti-avoidance regulation may have successfully constrained profit-shifting strategies.
This study examines the relation between executives’ inside debt holdings and corporate tax risk. As executives’ inside debt holdings are unsecured and unfunded, they should align executives’ interests with those of outside debtholders and incentivize executives to act more conservatively toward risk. Hence, inside debt should also reduce the risk of tax avoidance activities. Consistent with this prediction, we find that executive inside debt holdings are negatively related to tax risk. Further, this relation becomes stronger at higher levels of tax risk. We also find that the relation between insider debt and tax risk is stronger for firms that are not facing liquidity constraints and among well-governed firms. The latter result implies that institutional ownership and inside debt compensation are substitutes in reducing tax risk. Overall, our results suggest that part of the observed cross-sectional difference in tax avoidance can be explained by a reduction in tax risk that is related to executive inside debt holdings.
This paper empirically examines why tax avoidance differs across individuals. We use rich Swedish administrative panel data on all taxpayers, with a link between corporate and individual tax returns. Surprisingly, few individuals utilize legal and observable tax avoidance opportunities. Our results show that there are several frictions in tax avoidance participation. In addition to monetary benets from tax avoidance (incentives), the opportunity to participate in tax avoidance (access), as well as information and knowledge about these opportunities (awareness), are important factors for the individual's tax avoidance decision. We further show that information about tax avoidance opportunities spreads within informal networks.
This paper analyzes whether a dividend tax cut for owner–managers of closely held corporations encourages income shifting, income generation, or both. We use rich Swedish administrative micro data from 2000 to 2011 comprising detailed firm- and individual-level information. We find robust evidence of extensive income shifting across tax bases in response to the 2006 Swedish dividend tax cut. Owner–managers of closely held corporations reclassify earned income as dividend income but do not increase total income. The response is more pronounced for owner–managers with tax incentives and with easier access to income shifting through a high ownership share.
We examine the role of tax incentives, tax awareness, and complexity in tax evasion. We observe a specific type of tax evasion among business owners in Swedish administrative panel data, after the tax authority has approved all tax returns. For the period 2006–2009, approximately 5% of tax returns overstate a claimed dividend allowance. Tax awareness decreases and complexity increases the likelihood of misreporting. Our results indicate that some observed misreporting could be accidental, while some misreporting is deliberate tax evasion. We identify a positive and significant effect of tax rates on tax evasion, by exploiting a large kink in the tax schedule. The majority of misreporting cases remains undetected by the tax authority. Self-correction of tax evasion by taxpayers is the dominant type of detection.
We test whether dividend taxes affect corporate investments. We exploit Sweden’s 2006 dividend tax cut of 10 percentage points for closely held corporations and five percentage points for widely held corporations. Using rich administrative panel data and tripledifference estimators, we find that this dividend tax cut does not affect aggregate investment but that it affects the allocation of corporate investment. Cash-constrained firms increase investment after the dividend tax cut relative to cash-rich firms. Reallocation is stronger among closely held firms that experience a larger tax cut. This result is explained by higher external equity in cashconstrained firms and by higher dividends in cash-rich firms after the tax cut. The heterogeneous investment responses imply that the dividend tax cut raises efficiency by improving allocation of investment.
This paper tests the effect of dividend taxation on employment. Since dividend taxation affects real investments, tax-induced changes in real investments should map into employment effects. Using a difference-in-difference approach around the Swedish 2006 dividend tax cut and unique corporate-level data with income tax information on every employee, we find robust evidence of dividend tax-induced employment effects. In response to the dividend cut, both employment and wage levels increase in cash-constrained firms relative to cash-rich closely held corporations.
The trucking industry is at the beginning of a radical change due to several megatrends which will reshape the industry significantly. Based on the targets of the Paris Climate Agreement, the German government adopted its own Climate Action Plan 2050 which includes sector- specific reduction targets to reach a greenhouse gas neutral society by the middle of the 21st century. By 2030, the German Climate Action Plan specifies a reduction target of 40% from transportation compared to the reference year 1990. While emissions from other sectors such as energy or industry have decreased significantly since then, emissions from transportation remained stable. Among the various modes of transportation, passenger cars and commercial vehicles are by far the largest emitters of greenhouse gas emissions. As of January 2019, 99.7% of heavy-duty trucks registered in Germany run on diesel while the number of alternative fuel- powered passenger cars increases steadily. Apart from rising emissions, the industry faces a severe shortage of qualified truck drivers. According to the German Association of Freight Forwarders and Logistics Companies, the industry was facing a shortage of 45,000 drivers in Germany in 2017 with increasing tendency due to higher trade volumes and e-commerce.
This dissertation aims to discuss the transition of road transport in Germany toward innovative heavy-duty trucks. The main body of this dissertation consists of three research papers each of them focusing on autonomous and/or alternative fuel-powered heavy-duty trucks. The first research paper presents the results of a Delphi study with experts from industry and academia on factors affecting the purchasing decision and operation of alternative fuel-powered heavy-duty trucks in Germany. In the second study, a choice-based conjoint experiment with employees from freight companies was conducted to test how customers value the main attributes of innovative heavy-duty trucks. The Generalized Bass diffusion model was applied in the third study to investigate the future diffusion of battery electric heavy-duty trucks considering total-cost-of-ownership reduction effects.
Delegated monitoring
(2012)
To highlight the value of delegated monitoring through bond trustees, we examine the high-yield corporate bond market where default risk is high, covenants are numerous, and market values are particularly sensitive to wealth transfers. We show that bond trustees that also act as underwriters in the low-grade bond segment, but not the market’s largest trustees, reduce firms’ at-issue bond yields by 33 to 40 basis points. Accordingly, we report significantly lower bond default and downgrade risks associated with superior monitoring by these trustees. These pricing effects remain when we control for self-selection and do not hinge on whether we solely consider trustee identity or interaction terms of trustees with covenant variables that measure necessary monitoring effort. Our results can be interpreted as evidence for informational and reputational spillover effects of banks providing several services in the high-yield market segment.
Gone with the windfall
(2018)
Due to the debate about the generosity of LTC insurance benefits the German government decided to increase benefits and widen the circle of LTC beneficiaries with the Second LTC Strengthening Act. In this paper, we evaluate the long-term implications of this recent reform for the German LTC insurance scheme. Using the framework of generational accounting we show that the reform has led to a widening of the short-term gap between revenues and expenditure and that the LTC insurance is not sustainably financed, neither pre- nor post-reform. By the early 2020s there will be fiscal pressure for further reforms. From an intergenerational perspective, the reform can be seen as a windfall to current beneficiaries increasing the intergenerational redistribution through the pay-as-you-go system.
Web-based interaction between customers and producers offer new promising ways of bringing customers into the company right to where the value creation begins - in new product development (NPD). Despite the high potential of virtual customer integration (VCI), practical application is limited. The decision of initial utilization of VCI depends on the manager’s predisposition - favorable or unfavorable -towards VCI; usually, it is the responsibility of managers and executives belonging to the development, marketing or innovation departments to sanction such a decision. To get a deeper understanding of antecedents leading to the application of VCI, further information is needed. In this paper, the authors shed light on the various factors affecting managerial intention to apply virtual customer integration. The theory of planned behavior (TPB) provides a basis for developing a research model explaining the relation between managers’ cognition, attitude, social norms, perceived behavioral control and their intention to adopt VCI. The initial results of our empirical study, wherein we interviewed 94 managers within the consumer goods and services field, show that the TPB accounts for 66 percent of the variance in the managers’ intention to apply VCI. Furthermore, the study reveals that social norms and perceived behavioral control are the main factors which influence managerial decision to apply VCI. This contrasts with the widely-held theory that an individual's attitude is the most significant factor of influence.
Past research has identified that innovation portfolio management is about efficiently managing the right innovation portfolio projects. However, the relevant literature has fairly unobserved decision processes which help to maximize the value of the entire innovation portfolio. This work analyzed decision procedures within the context of innovation portfolio management; especially, the project go/stop-decision processes. Founded on a theoretical basis two decision making experiments were developed and a distinct set of hypotheses by two large-scale experimental studies were tested.
The present work is aimed at making a valuable contribution to conceptual research about decision making in the context of innovation portfolio management, and the experimental based research field. The results of these studies help to get a detailed understanding of the decision making processes and may lead to a better understanding of project management within an innovation portfolio by firms and by decision makers in general.
This study examines heterogeneity in tax rate elasticities of corporate capital using staggered variation in local business tax rates of German municipalities. The results suggest an average long-run capital decline of 0.97% after a 1% increase in the tax rate. In line with prior literature that suggests higher investment-cash flow sensitivities of firms with financing constraints tax rate elasticities are up to half times larger for financially constrained firms than for unconstrained firms. Moreover, capital responses are about half times larger for firms with fewer tax avoidance possibilities. Finally, this study contributes to the literature on tax incidence. I find a weaker relation between taxes and capital for firms that are less likely to bear the economic burden of the tax because they shift the tax incidence to their stakeholders.
Tax loss carrybacks
(2016)
Tax regimes treat losses and profits asymmetrically when profits are immediately taxed but losses are not immediately refunded. We find that treating losses less asymmetrically by granting refunds less restrictively increases loss firms' investment: A third of the refund is invested and the rest is held as cash or returned to shareholders. However, the investment response is driven primarily by firms prone to engage in risky overinvestment. Consistent with the risk of misallocation, we find a delayed exit of low-productivity loss firms receiving less restrictive refunds, indicating potential distortion of the competitive selection of firms. This distortion also negatively affects aggregate output and productivity. Our results suggest that stimulating loss firms' investment with refunds unconditional on their future prospects comes at the risk of misallocation.
Bank earnings management
(2010)
whether the moral evaluation of tax evasion is subject to a self-serving bias. We find that tax morale is egoistically biased: Subjects with the opportunity to evade taxes judge tax evasion as less unethical as opposed to those who cannot evade. The detection probability does not affect this result. Further, we do not find moral spillover effects, for example, on legal activities.
Does legality matter?
(2015)
Previous research argues that law expresses social values and could, therefore, influence individual behavior independently of enforcement and penalization. Using three laboratory experiments on tax avoidance and evasion, we study how legality affects individuals’ decisions. We find that, without any risk of negative financial consequences, the qualification of tax minimization as illegal versus legal reduces tax minimization considerably. Legislators can thus, in principle, affect subjects’ decisions by defining the borderline between legality and illegality. However, once we introduce potential negative financial consequences, legality does not affect tax minimization. Only if we use moral priming to increase subjects’ moral cost do we again find a legality effect on tax minimization. Overall, this demonstrates the limitations of the expressive function of law. Legality appears to be an important determinant of behavior only if we consider activities with no or low risk of negative financial consequences or if subjects are morally primed.
Hedging retail promotions
(2012)
Using comprehensive panel data on Chinese acquisitions in Germany in the time period from 2007 to 2016, this thesis investigates the effects of the acquisition on target firm performance and concentrates on some critical issues regarding target top management team turnover and target firm performance as well as acquirer technological capability and target innovation performance. More specifically, the thesis focuses on the following questions: (1) How do acquisitions by emerging-market firms in developed markets influence target post-acquisition firm performance? (2) Do target top management team turnover or target chief executive officer (CEO) turnover have an effect on target post-acquisition firm performance in case of emerging-market acquisitions in developed markets and what is the moderating role of appointing an acquiring firm´s manager as target CEO? (3) How does the acquirer’s technological capability relate to target post-acquisition innovation performance in case of emerging-market acquisitions in developed markets and does prior international acquisition experience of the acquiring firm play a moderating role in this relationship? The theory and findings contribute to the existing literature on emerging-market firms and their investments in developed-market firms and offer some managerial guidelines in managing target post-acquisition success.
Innovations have become essential drivers of success for companies in most industries. However, innovative efforts often fail due to a lack of internal support. Past research has shown that internal resistance arises when employees perceive innovations as threatening the core of the organization, its identity. How employees can be led to identify with much innovations has remained largely unsolved. Drawing on organizational psychology, this study proposes a new conceptual framework which includes an in-depth understanding of employee identification with innovations, its identity-related antecedents and its consequences. The framework is tested by means of large-scale empirical studies among more than 150 members of a leading healthcare organization. Results indicate that the proposed framework has high explanatory power for employee identification with innovations, employee behaviours and the innovations’ success in the market. Based on these results, an innovation-identity toolkit is derived which enables executives to systematically pursue identification management and integrate it into their innovation management practice. Accordingly, the present book is relevant for both academics and managers in the fields of organizational behaviour and innovation management.
Essays in cryptocurrency
(2021)
Google search secrets
(2014)